European market

Wheat prices are rising as the mercury climbs in southern Russia. With temperatures approaching 30°C over the next few days and after 2 months of very poor rainfall, concerns are growing. As a result, short-covering operations are fuelling the rise in new crop maturities on the Euronext wheat contract. The September 2024 maturity has already risen by €16.5/t since the start of the week.

Corn, which had risen sharply the previous day, was more timid yesterday, needing to consolidate in a fundamental international context that is not the same as for wheat.

Rapeseed is also consolidating in a market that has so far failed to break through the €460-465/t resistance on August 2024.

Wheat prices are also continuing to deteriorate in the European Union, where the European Commission yesterday lowered its soft wheat production forecast for 2024 to 120.2 Mt from 120.8 Mt, a 4-year low. The Commission also reduced the EU27 production outlook for barley and rapeseed by -0.1 Mt compared with last month, to 53.6 Mt and 19.4 Mt respectively.

American market

In addition to the serious weather worries affecting southern Russia, the US wheat market is concerned about the situation in the southern Great Plains, which may not benefit from the torrential rains expected in central Russia.

Funds are thus continuing the major short-covering movement that has been in place since the middle of last week on wheat in Chicago. They are more hesitant about corn and yesterday remained short soybeans.

The heavy rains that are due to fall on the Corn Belt are being closely monitored, as they could slow down planting. This is providing more support for corn prices in Chicago than for soybean. Soybean acreage generally rises in years when corn is sown late.

Yesterday, the USDA published the weekly US export sales figures for 2023/2024 and 2024/2025:
Soft wheat: 82,000 t and 371,900 t
Corn: 1.3 Mt and 262,300 t
Soybean: 210,900 t and 120,100 t

The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange is concerned about the hot, dry weather in recent weeks in the north of the country, which could lead to a reduction in its soybean production estimate, currently maintained at 51 million tons. The harvest has so far been brought forward by 22.5%.