European market
Wheat is evolving little at the end of the week but manages to hold on the level of €191.50/t. The firmness of recent days is explained in particular by the return of a geopolitical risks. The situation in Venezuela brings an additional volatility to the crude oil market, with WTI now close to $59/barrel.
In corn, the key area of 190 €/t has been crossed on the March contract, in a context where European supply remains relatively limited. And the main EU supplier, Ukraine, is experiencing difficulties in harvesting and exporting corn. In this context, French origins have been well demanded since the beginning of the campaign, which should make it possible to export nearly 4 Mt within the European Union over 2025/26. Such a level had not been reached since 2021/22.
Rapeseed continues to show up and downs as the end of the February options deadline approaches on Euronext. Now, market will follow the May contract, which manages to stay above the level of 460 € /t. Beyond the episode concerning the Ukrainian crushing plants, it is the visit of the Canadian Prime minister to China that revives optimism of market participants. At the heart of the negotiations scheduled for January 13 to 17 is the possibility for Canada to export the products of the canola complex to the China again.
American market
US market participants are waiting for the monthly publications of the USDA and the Conab. The US corn supply estimates will be closely watched, while Argus forecast the 2025-26 US corn production at 411 Mt. Demand will also be monitored, with exports expected in the range of 70 to 75 Mt.
In soybeans, Argus estimates US production at 114.3 Mt, while exports are expected at 42 Mt. The new sales made to China are a valuable help to achieve this goal.
US export sales are slowing down, which remains logical in view of the seasonality of recent years. Now up to date after the catch-up linked to the shutdown, exports have shown in recent weeks a still impressive dynamic, especially for corn.
Last week's export sales came out as follows:
Wheat: 119,000 t, below expectations
Corn: 378,000 t, below expectations
Soybeans: 878,000 t, within expectations.
Black Sea market
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