European market
Geopolitics has been talked about again in recent days, especially through a statement by Donald Trump on his social network. While he had raised hopes by announcing earlier this month a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, a meeting where agricultural raw materials were to occupy a central place, the situation has since radically changed. This is a real turnaround since the tone has hardened, cooling the optimism of the operators.
The international situation has returned to the forefront, plunging European grain markets back into their uncertainties. After a brief passage above the €190/t level, Euronext wheat failed to stabilize. However, the French origins remain competitive, opening the way to new business streams. From Tunisia to Morocco, via Egypt, there have been many reasons for hope in recent days. In the medium term, however, the arrival of a record harvest in Argentina could quickly thwart the ambitions of new deals.
On the macroeconomic level, the euro/dollar parity is trying to stabilize around 1.16. Between the political uncertainties in France and Donald Trump's statements regarding new taxes, the currency pair is evolving in a tense climate.
In France, agricultural work continues and 37% of the corn is harvested, 5% of the wheat is sown, and 10% of the winter barley is in the ground.
On the oilseed side, the yields of Ukrainian sunflower disappoint. In addition, there is a slowdown in flows from Odesa. Between the imbroglio around the taxes on rapeseed and the recent attacks targeting port infrastructures, exports are limited, which has brought a little firmness to prices. But this was without counting on the statements of the US president, which caused soybeans to fall and, in turn, the entire oilseed complex.
American market
The "shutdown" remains in place, limiting the flow of information from the United States. But that was without counting on Donald Trump, who has hardened the tone towards China. The hopes of seeing soybean flows revitalize are reduced to nothing. This announcement brought in its wake all the grain markets across the Atlantic, causing downturn for wheat, corn and soybeans.
In this context, it is difficult for operators to reverse the trend, especially since official publications remain frozen. The progress of the harvests and the adjustments of the global balance sheets are still not highlighted. However, private analysts continue with assiduity their work of evaluation and projection of supply and demand in the world. In any case, it is the daily work of the Argus Media research team that will inform your decision-making through its latest S&Ds Argus AgriMarkets Outlook report to be tested by clicking here.
Black Sea market
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