European market
Few new things emerged during yesterday's session, and this, while the US "shutdown" continues to paralyze publications. The USDA's monthly report, originally scheduled for tonight, will therefore not be published, leaving doubts about the adjustments to global balance sheets. In this context, EU prices closed almost unchanged: December contract wheat stood at around €188/t, while corn and rapeseed, both November contract, ended respectively at €184.50/t and €466.25/t.
Among the notable elements, Argentina confirms the strong production prospects announced previously. The Rosario Stock Exchange has raised its wheat production estimate to 23 Mt, compared to 20 Mt previously. Local analysts are showing some optimism and are aligned with the levels announced by Argus Media last week. With these volumes, export availability should be greater, thus strengthening competition. The French operators are closely following the situation, Argentina being able to compete with the French origin on the Maghreb markets, in particular in Morocco.
In Australia, the outlook remains generally favourable, although concerns are emerging about a possible deterioration in yields in some regions. For the moment, the vegetation indices remain above average, which is an encouraging signal for the rest of the campaign.
In Ukraine, the sunflower harvest continues, but the yields continue to be below expected levels. After a 2024-25 production estimated at 12.3 Mt according to Argus Media, the 2025-26 season could also disappoint. Still positioned at more than 14 Mt, the USDA will have no choice but to review its figures in the next reports.
On the political side, the French situation continues to attract attention. Note that the dollar index is strengthening at the same time, allowing the euro/dollar parity to stabilize below the 1.17 level.
American market
The monthly USDA report, often bringing adjustments on balance sheets, and therefore on prices, will not be published tonight. Consequently, operators pay particular attention to the estimates of the various analysts, which, for their part, have been announced.
Regarding corn, the average expectations are for a yield of 185 bu/acre, against 186.7 bu/acre in the September report. For soybeans, the forecast stands at 53.2 bu/acre, down slightly from the previous month's 53.5 bu/acre. These downward revisions provide partial support for prices, although only the official publication will make it possible to judge the real extent of the reduction in yields.
On the wheat side, the latest estimates indicated Australian and Argentine productions at 34.5 Mt and 19.5 Mt respectively. In view of current conditions, an upward revision of supplies seems likely, which would strengthen volumes among the main exporters, where production is already at record levels.
On the political side, Donald Trump announces a peace agreement reached for a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. If these elements remain to be validated, the geopolitical risk premium fades.
Black Sea market
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