Pre-opening 06/05/2021
Paris Chicago
Wheat+1€/t to +2€/t +3 cents
Corn+1€/t to +2€/t +10 cent
Rapeseed+4€/t to +5€/t
Soybean+15 cents
Indexes 06/05/2021
€/$1.2060 $
Oil WTI65.63 $/b

Wheat (€/t)
May 21253.50+5.00
Sep 21230.25+4.00
Dec 21228.50+3.25
Mar 22229.50+3.50
May 22229.25+3.75
Corn (€/t)
Jun 21258.25+7.25
Aug 21247.25+6.50
Nov 21220.25+6.00
Jan 22220.00+5.00
Mar 22220.75+4.75
Rapeseed (€/t)
Aug 21540.50+18.25
Nov 21532.75+18.00
Feb 22524.50+15.75
May 22519.25+14.75
Aug 22448.00+10.50

06/05/2021

Wheat (€/t) : 8468 lots
LotsTypeStrike
4Call Sep 21208.00
2200Call Sep 21220.00
200Call Sep 21230.00
100Call Sep 21232.00
2000Call Sep 21240.00
100Call Sep 21242.00
100Call Sep 21260.00
40Call Sep 21280.00
200Call Dec 21220.00
50Call Dec 21226.00
100Call Dec 21230.00
300Call Dec 21235.00
200Call Dec 21240.00
100Call Dec 21260.00
1Call Dec 21265.00
11Call Dec 21300.00
400Call Mar 22226.00
400Call Mar 22240.00
8Put Sep 21170.00
50Put Sep 21195.00
100Put Sep 21200.00
10Put Sep 21214.00
50Put Sep 21215.00
5Put Sep 21220.00
200Put Dec 21195.00
302Put Dec 21200.00
1Put Dec 21215.00
6Put Dec 21218.00
801Put Dec 21220.00
22Put Dec 21225.00
400Put Mar 22205.00
7Put Mar 22226.00
Corn (€/t) : 1126 lots
LotsTypeStrike
50Call Aug 21244.00
100Call Aug 21245.00
250Call Nov 21220.00
20Call Nov 21225.00
220Call Nov 21230.00
190Call Nov 21235.00
100Call Nov 21240.00
1Put Nov 21185.00
2Put Nov 21190.00
190Put Nov 21205.00
1Put Nov 21220.00
1Put Jan 22219.00
1Put Mar 22220.00
Rapeseed (€/t) : 816 lots
LotsTypeStrike
2Call Aug 21500.00
100Call Nov 21520.00
150Call Nov 21550.00
11Call Nov 21560.00
60Call Nov 21575.00
100Put Aug 21480.00
140Put Nov 21465.00
50Put Nov 21470.00
100Put Nov 21485.00
52Put Nov 21510.00
50Put Nov 21520.00
1Put May 22490.00

Wheat (¢/b)
May 21755.7500+8.5000
Jul 21744.5000+11.0000
Sep 21744.0000+12.0000
Dec 21746.0000+13.0000
Mar 22749.5000+13.5000
Corn (¢/b)
May 21753.2500+7.7500
Jul 21708.5000+11.2500
Sep 21631.0000+15.7500
Dec 21604.7500+23.0000
Mar 22608.5000+21.5000
Soybean (¢/b)
May 211582.0000+21.5000
Jul 211542.2500+27.0000
Aug 211491.5000+23.7500
Sep 211415.5000+26.2500
Nov 211382.7500+26.0000
Soy meal ($/st)
May 21424.3000+5.3000
Jul 21424.4000+4.5000
Aug 21419.1000+3.5000
Sep 21412.9000+3.1000
Oct 21405.5000+2.6000
Soy oil (¢/lb)
May 2166.7400-0.5000
Jul 2163.4600+1.1600
Aug 2159.7900+1.4700
Sep 2157.8100+1.7000
Oct 2156.5600+1.7700

06/05/2021

Physical (€/t)
Durum wheat delivered La Pallice Spot - July 2021 basis265.00+5.00
Wheat delivered Rouen - July 2021 basis223.00+5.00
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2020 basis245.00+3.00
Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2020 basis251.00+3.00
Feed barley delivered Rouen - July 2021 basis219.00+5.00
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2021 basis225.00+0.00
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot - Flat - 2021 harvest526.00+5.00
Standard sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot - Flat - 2020 harvest555.00+5.00
Feed peas FOB Creil Spot - August 2021 basis270.00+5.00

Events

Analysis 06/05/2021

European market

As the days pass, the weather situation in Brazil is becoming critical. The photos we are getting from Parana show crops definitively affected by the lack of water. The revision of corn production in the country will be significant according to Agritel analysts, forecasting it below 100 Mt. This will lead to a significant rise in the cereals prices, including wheat, in a context where world balances will remain tight for the coming season.

Internationally, the US sold 184,100 Mt of corn to Mexico and 147,320 Mt of corn to an undisclosed destination.

EU exports of wheat outside the European zone rose to 665,000 t in April, bringing the total to 22.14 Mt since the beginning of the campaign, compared to 30.0 Mt last year to date. Barley exports stood at 6.61 Mt, the same level as last year to date. Imports of corn fell to 12.34 Mt from 17.67 Mt last year. Port activity is currently reduced in France. The two main buyers, Algeria and Morocco, show little interest in this origin at the end of the campaign. Wheat production in Morocco for the next harvest looks promising.

The rainfall expected in France today could be disappointing in many regions. Other European countries are suffering from less water deficit than France at the moment.

Euronext's COT release yesterday showed the funds to increase their long positions in wheat to 133,450 lots from 120,471 lots last week.

Rapeseed prices continue to rise, with new highs posted in Canada on canola. The palm is up this morning by +3 to 4% depending on the contract. Rapeseed imports into Europe are currently at 5.43 Mt compared to 5.30 Mt last year.

The dollar is strengthening this morning to 1.2000 against the euro and trading at 74.82 against the rouble. Crude oil continues to rise to 65.60 $/b.

American market

Weekly ethanol production is displayed at 952,000 barrels per day compared to 945,000 last week and stocks were up to 20.4 million barrels from 19.7 million last week. China canceled a 140,000t old crop corn purchase but remains active in 2021 crop purchases. As a result, corn prices remain strong, especially for the 2021 crop.

Funds were net buyers yesterday for 10,500 lots of corn, 3,500 lots of soybeans, and 9,500 lots of wheat.

Traders will be watching next week's USDA report with interest, especially with the new corn production estimates for Brazil.

Given the soybean to corn price ratio, farmers may be tempted to increase corn plantings. However, last minute crop rotation changes are quite rare given the necessary pre-seeding preparations.

Black Sea market

The rainy area is setting up over the Black Sea. Most of the precipitations are expected for the weekend with accumulations that could exceed 50mm as in the case of the Rostov region.

These weather conditions could once again impact the progress of sowing, which shows the slowest pace for the last 7 years.

Live news

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