European market

Friday was marked on the macroeconomic front by the publication of the PCE index in the United States, the FED's preferred reference in terms of inflation. They displayed a figure in line with expectations at +2.6% on an annual basis and identical to that of June. Although this indicator remains higher than the FED's 2% target, traders still mostly anticipate a rate cut from the FED for this month of September. In such a context, the euro/dollar returns above 1.17 and penalizes European export competitiveness.
Grain prices showed a slight rebound on Friday. This is primarily a technical movement out of sympathy with Chicago on the background of short positions' buying back at the end of the week, the end of the month and the end of the quarter. The fundamental global context remains well supplied with wheat as well as corn under the respective leadership of Russia and the United States.
Rapeseed, on the other hand, is down. With a closing decline of -3 € / t to 462.50 € / t on the November 2025 contract, prices are returning to closing lows since last March. Rapeseed follows in the footsteps of canola which has been falling in Winnipeg since the announcement of a Canadian production close to 20mn t by Statscan and with the arrival of the new harvest in Canada.

American market

The end of the quarter was marked last Friday by a strong movement of funds' short positions buying back, accentuated by a long weekend in the US, with markets closed this Monday, September 1st for Labor Day. 
The corn was the object of the most extensive repurchase of lots on Friday in Chicago and consequently shows the most important bullish movement. The December 2025 corn contract returns with a closing at $4.2 /bu at the highest since last July 24. In addition to these technical considerations, the corn market also welcomes the impressive export performance of the US origin in recent weeks with weekly sales of more than 2mn t. This somewhat balances the expected arrival of a record harvest.
Wheat and soybeans are taking advantage of the bullish momentum of corn to also end the week in the green on Chicago. Soybeans continue to hope for a positive outcome to the trade negotiations currently underway between the United States and China.

Black Sea market

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