European market
The market is adjusting following the euro to dollar rate changes, in a context where grain prices have been trading on the lowest levels since the beginning of the season on Euronext. The upcoming closing of the wheat September 2025 contract pushes prices to record a new low. The following contracts are trying to stabilize, showing a slight increase. The December2025 contract closes above €190/t, at €190.25/t.
In terms of production volumes, the German Ministry of Agriculture now announces a harvest of soft winter wheat at 22.45mn t, significantly up compared to last year, as it's the case in France. Faced with a large volume available for export, European operators remain attentive to the evolution of prices in the Black Sea in order to preserve their competitiveness in the face of the return of some buyers. Tunisia, which launched a call for tenders earlier this week, seems to have concluded a purchase of 125,000 t for shipments scheduled between October and November.
Corn prices are also changing little, showing a gain of +1 €/t on Euronext compared to the previous day. The November 2025 contract remains close to its lowest levels since last March. The harvest should confirm a decrease in volume in France compared to last year, in direct connection with the yield potential.
On the rapeseed market, prices fell yesterday, like other oilseeds. The production volume of rapeseed in Germany is announced at 3.96mn t by the Ministry of Agriculture, up compared to last year, unsurprisingly.
In terms of current events, the operators of many agricultural sectors are following with the greatest interest the decision of the European Commission, which yesterday approved the agreement between the Mercosur countries and the European Union. It now remains to initiate the validation process with the 27 Member States before a possible definitive implementation.
American market
The recent rebound in corn prices in the new harvest led prices yesterday to return to their highest levels in Chicago since July 22 last year. The prices of the December 2025 contract then marked a decline, under the effect of some profit-taking on the part of the funds, closing below $ 4.20 /bu. The US operators are now waiting for the start of the harvest and the first yield results. The estimate currently posted by the USDA in August, at 188.8 bu/acre, continues to raise questions, both among producers and analysts.
Soybean prices continued the downward movement started the day before. The November 2025 contract is approaching the support zone of $10.30/bu, returning to the levels observed in mid-August. The approach of the harvest will soon make it possible to better assess the yield potential in the United States, in a context where Chinese demand remains oriented towards other origins.
Regarding wheat, despite strong export activity since the beginning of the campaign, SRW prices have been moving in a narrow range for almost four weeks. The December 2025 contract varies between $5.20/bu and $5.35/bu. The easing movement started at the beginning of the week is currently pushing prices closer to the bottom of this range.
Black Sea market
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