European market
All eyes were turned yesterday towards the United States and China, on the occasion of the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping. It took until mid-day in France for Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, to unveil the first details of the trade agreement that could be signed as early as next week.
If the terms still remain unclear, the volumes of soybeans that Beijing would have committed to importing were enough to revive prices, erasing the disappointment observed overnight. Soybeans reached their highest level in 15 months, followed in its wake by canola on Winnipeg and rapeseed on Euronext.
Note: the November 2025 contract for rapeseed will close this Friday, October 31st.
Contrary to the general optimism observed at the beginning of the week, the grain markets, both on Euronext and on Chicago, did not follow the bullish momentum of soybeans yesterday. No specific commitments or announcements regarding wheat or corn were communicated at the end of the Sino-American meeting. Operators have therefore returned to market fundamentals and commercial considerations, in a context still marked by global abundance.
In Europe, the European Commission published yesterday its latest 2025 production estimates for the EU:
Soft wheat: 133.4 Mt against 132.6 Mt previously estimated
Corn: stable at 56.8 Mt
Barley 55.9 Mt against 55.7 Mt expected last month
Rapeseed: stable at 19.9 Mt.
The feed barley market, currently tight on the international scene, is animated by a new purchase from Turkey, confirmed yesterday for 250,000 t.
American market
The statements of Scott Bessent, the US Secretary of the Treasury revived optimism on soybean prices yesterday in Chicago. The trade agreement reached with China, which could be signed as early as next week, would include a purchase of 12 Mt of US soybeans for this season and 25 Mt for each of the next three years.
The debates are going well between analysts and market operators to try to understand the contours and details of this still rather vague project. Nothing has been signed, nothing has been bought but the market is getting excited and soybeans are closing at the highest level in 15 months on the close in Chicago. It must be said that funds continue to fuel the increase with significant purchases of soybeans since the beginning of the week.
The mood is different for wheat and corn, which remained without comments about them. Prices are down on Chicago. The US market is still suffering from the Shutdown and the absence of weekly export sales figures published in normal time every Thursday by the USDA. The next USDA WASDE report scheduled for November 10 may also be missing.
Black Sea market
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