European market
In Europe, prices moved higher alongside the rebound seen in the US following the publication of the USDA report on Tuesday, with gains across both the grain and oilseed markets. Wheat prices, which had fallen back to their lowest level on Euronext in four months, have therefore rebounded, with the Dec 26 contract on Euronext moving back above 235 €/t, marking a price swing of 18.75 €/t between the session low and high over two trading days. Discussions between Russian and Ukrainian representatives are also keeping operators focused, although for now no improvement in trade flows has been observed, with attacks still being reported on both sides.
The recent decline in prices prompted the OAIC to return to the market with a tender that is believed to have been concluded for at least 700,000 t of soft wheat, confirming purchases at a level below those seen last month. Shipment origins remain optional, but the prices accepted currently make a return of Argentine origins plausible. On Tuesday, the USDA also revised Argentina’s production potential for the 2026 crop to 23 mn t, leading to an upward adjustment in the country’s export potential. Wheat production prospects in the Southern Hemisphere have also been revised higher, with the USDA likewise increasing its estimate of Australian production to 32.5 mn t, along with an expected upward revision to export potential.
In oilseeds, the rebound in prices was also evident. Rapeseed prices on Euronext have therefore moved back to test the 540 €/t level on the Feb 27 contract. Supported by the recovery in canola and soybean prices, European prices have returned to last week’s levels, erasing part of the sharp decline seen at the start of the month.
American market
The publication of the USDA’s monthly report on Tuesday evening, despite an upward revision to the US yield estimate, now at 53.3 bu/acre, and therefore an increase in national production of +0.33 mn t compared with last month, mainly highlighted renewed strength in expected soybean export activity for the coming marketing year. The USDA now projects soybean exports at 46.81 mn t, a sharp increase from the previous season. As a result, ending stocks have been revised down to 8.17 mn t, confirming a third consecutive year of declining inventories. Domestic consumption remains robust, directly linked to stronger national crushing activity, which now exceeds 75 mn t. After a prolonged decline since September, the Jan 27 contract in Chicago has rebounded and is once again trading above 12.20 $/bu, erasing the setback seen at the beginning of November. Soybean oil and meal prices also posted gains in Chicago.
The downward revision to the US corn yield potential, now below 180 bu/acre at 179.6 bu/acre, automatically leads to a lower estimate for US production. The USDA now projects production at 403.71 mn t, confirming a decline from last year's record crop. Nevertheless, the 2026 harvest remains the second largest on record, driven by large planted acreage and high yields. This revision to production, despite an adjustment in feed demand, reduces US ending stocks to 44.67 mn t. The decline is providing some support to Chicago corn prices, which had been testing a support zone for several days. The Dec 26 contract has therefore rebounded from the 4.40 $/bu level.
Meanwhile, after recently reaching fresh lows, wheat prices posted a modest recovery from the 6.00 $/bu level on the Mar 27 contract and are once again testing 6.15 $/bu. Market participants will now be watching developments in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations following two days of discussions in Abu Dhabi and with two additional days of talks scheduled in Russia and Europe.
Black Sea market
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