European market
Grains continue their evolution in a particularly narrow channel on Euronext. The €190/t area on wheat December continues to play the role of a pivot point, but prices are struggling to adopt a clear direction. On the one hand, operators note a sustained demand for French wheat, driven by its good competitiveness against its Russian counterpart. On the other hand, concerns are growing about increased competition from Argentina, whose wheat production is estimated at 23 Mt according to Argus Media. This volume should significantly increase the available exportable in the coming weeks. Note, however, the current shipments in French ports destined for Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. On barley, the dynamics are even more marked, as evidenced by the good performance of the premium, supported by previous purchases from Morocco, Mexico, Libya and China.
Oilseeds are experiencing more turbulent sessions, like rapeseed, which oscillates between the resistance zone of €470/t and its support at € 460/t. The closing of the November deadline at the end of the month could offer a new lease of life to the February contract, traditionally more bullish due to seasonality.
However, the flow of information highlights the good progress of harvests in Canada, where the 2025 production promises to be strong. Same observation in Australia, although we still have to wait to get the first returns on yields.
Faced with these elements, the disappointment of sunflower yields in Ukraine provides support to the complex of oils.
On the ground, the corn harvest is progressing in France, with 56% of the harvested areas according to Céré'Obs, compared to only 13% at the same time last year. The yields, on the other hand, turn out to be very heterogeneous according to the zones. Regarding wheat, sowing is also progressing rapidly.
As of October 13, 27% of the work had been completed, but the figures updated this week should show a sharper progress. The producers have indeed taken advantage of the last days before the rains to sow massively.
American market
The shutdown continues to paralyze the distribution of official information from the US administration. Due to the lack of concrete data, operators turn to political statements, in particular those evoking an improvement in diplomatic relations with China. Although the tone varies every two days between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the hope of a favourable outcome for American soybean exports remains.
In this context, the U soybeans are up close to the $10.30/bushel area on the November contract.
The corn and soybean harvests are continuing, without precise progress figures being communicated. Local producers report heterogeneous yields of corn, but overall above average.
It remains to be seen, in the coming months, whether the US corn production record will be confirmed at more than 425mn t for the 2025/26 season, according to the USDA.
Black Sea market
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