European market

Volatility remains high on the commodity markets, and even more so on the agricultural sector. In the wake of the energies, the prices of wheat, corn and rapeseed are displaying stronger daily variation amplitudes than usual. The fundamentals take a back seat, like showed by the USDA report published earlier this week, which did not really change the balances.
The same applies to the publication of FranceAgriMer, which finally raises its production by almost 200,000 t to reach 30.40 Mt, a level more in line with the market operators. At the same time, exports to the non-EU countries are reduced by 100,000 t to 7.1 Mt, against 7.2 Mt according to Argus. Consequently, the French stock is logically raised by 300,000 t, to 3.39 Mt.
Rapeseed once again had a lively session, but it was supported by the rise in soybean oil. The latter continues to impress the operators and brings in its wake all the vegetable oils.
Geopolitical news has prompted financial operators to return to purchases on Euronext. Over the past week, they have bought nearly 38,000 lots, strengthening their net buyer position at the beginning of the month, a situation unprecedented since 2024. The funds have also acquired 5,100 rapeseed contracts and 4,200 corn lots.
This Thursday morning is marked by a new significant increase in crude oil prices, with WTI up 7%, following attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Although the IEA has released 400 million barrels to try to contain the rise in crude oil, geopolitical events have taken over. At the same time, the euro/dollar parity falls back below 1.16 to trade around 1.1531.

American market

Agricultural raw materials are not spared by the hectic environment of the moment. Volatility remains significant in Chicago, and the renewed crude oil firmness this weekend should once again support US grains.
The various publications take a back seat, although operators will keep a close eye on the CONAB report due today, with adjustments to Brazilian balance sheets being particularly closely monitored. In this region of the world, the major information comes from the cessation of shipments to China by some companies. While the Chinese authorities have raised the tone regarding quality problems on Brazilian soybeans, the main supplier of the country is taking the lead by strengthening health controls on departure from Brazil.
In Argentina, the Rosario Stock Exchange has renewed its production estimates for 2025/26, showing 48 Mt of soybeans and 62 Mt of corn.
The soybean complex was mainly driven by the rise in vegetable oils, which are constantly progressing. This is supported by a particularly dynamic consumption of soybean oil, but also by rumors that the EPA has decided on a reallocation of 70%, i.e. the top of the range of expectations. It now remains to wait for an official press release in the coming days.
 

Black Sea market

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