European market
Last week ended on a bearish note on the European grain market. The euro/dollar below 1.1400, with a week close at 1.1390, was not enough to restrain the selling pressure. Nevertheless, prices closed well above their session lows on Euronext, in sympathy with a late rebound on the Chicago market.
This confirms, if it were still necessary, the extreme volatility of the moment, with geopolitics as the first driver of the market. In addition to the conflicts and logistical blockages that dominate raw materials in the Middle East and Ukraine, trade talks between the United States and China were added at the end of the week. These incessant negotiations, which began more than a year ago, are blowing hot and cold on the financial markets, starting with the grain market.
Also on the Black Sea, market opinions and feelings diverge and oppose each other. The intensification of diplomatic efforts in favor of a resumption of maritime flows is illustrated by daily pacifist announcements, which are nevertheless echoed by equally recurrent strikes.
In France, the last particularly dry weeks lead to a very rapid advance of the harvest. The Céré'Obs report by FranceAgriMer reports a 2026 corn harvest achieved at 45% nationwide on September 21, compared to only 11% on a five-year average to date. This historical advance also reveals even worse harvest results than feared.
The cultivation of rapeseed, this time with a view to the 2027 harvest, is also at the heart of attention at the end of this historically hot and dry September. The return of the rain at the beginning of the week is therefore most anticipated, with a need for sufficient accumulations to revive the growth of young plants in pain.
American market
The volatility was very strong on Friday on the Chicago market, with the extreme daily amplitude. Last Friday started sharply lower on all products due to the disappointment of operators, in the absence of concrete announcements of new needs for purchases of American grains by China after the trade discussion between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on Thursday.
This was without counting on the speech of the American president on Friday, who said about it: "I think our farmers will be very happy". This simple statement, supplemented by that of Jamieson Greer, the US Trade representative, who indicated that Washington would publish this Monday the progress of its negotiations with China, was enough to revive hope on American grains.
With the return of funds to the purchase, corn and soybeans were able to close higher Friday night in Chicago. The excess of rainfall which slows down the autumn harvest in the west of the Corn Belt is also a support for corn and soybean prices.
Only wheat closed lower on Friday, under the pressure of the ongoing diplomatic negotiations around the Black Sea.
Black Sea market
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