European market

Volatility remains in place this week, under the combined effect of geopolitics, weather conditions, the progress of harvests and monthly reports.
On the international scene, the situation in the Middle East has once again caught the attention of the markets. Traffic via the Strait of Hormuz is being questioned, which has naturally supported crude oil prices. This one flirts again with the $75/barrel.
This situation also supports the vegetable oils and, in turn, oilseeds. Like Euronext rapeseed, which was up by €8.75/t on the November contract to trade at €531.75/t. On this complex, eyes are also turning to sunflower, while the hot temperatures in full bloom are likely to have negative impact. Despite increasing areas in France, the 2026 harvest could be lower than expected earlier.
The harvest of autumn crops continues with a strong persistent heterogeneity on the wheat. However, it remains difficult for prices to take a clear direction while international demand remains particularly timid.
After the surge of recent weeks, corn corrects on Euronext while the situation remains worrying. The weather forecasts are still not reassuring and the yield potentials are deteriorating day after day. The lack of feed could also lead some farmers to review their trade-offs between grain corn and silage corn, which would not be without consequences for the volumes of the 2026-27 season.

American market

New exceptional sales of soybeans destined for China have been identified, with a volumes of 472,000 t  announced yesterday. These purchases are likely to reassure operators, who see it as a sign of compliance with the Sino-American trade agreement concluded earlier in the year. Such volumes come in addition to a still sustained crushing activity, likely to modify the American balance sheet.
The American weather remains closely monitored while corn and soybeans still show good potential. However, the temperatures climb in part of the Corn Belt at the moment when the flowering phase begins. This situation could put an end to the downward seasonality usually observed on corn at this time of the year.
By tomorrow, position adjustments should occur as the USDA will publish its monthly report this Friday. Once again, traders expect changes in the global balance sheet, enough to fuel volatility on the markets.

Black Sea market

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