European market
The heatwave continues and is intensifying in France with a new national temperature record set yesterday. This exceptional phenomenon extends well beyond France’s borders. It is taking on a European dimension with highs expected above 35 °C in the United Kingdom on Friday, up to 40 °C in Germany on Saturday and then in Poland on Sunday.
As harvesting progresses with the necessary daytime precautions in France, winter crops are suffering in late areas, just like spring crops everywhere. Concerns are all the greater where the critical flowering stage is beginning in corn and sunflower.
After Monday’s surge, profit-taking occurred yesterday on wheat and corn prices on Euronext, notably under the influence of a downward‑oriented Chicago market. Only rapeseed continues to firm.
On the macroeconomic front, the temporary lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports is being added to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, putting pressure on oil prices, which are now approaching 72 $/barrel in New York. While oil is at its lowest since March 3, the euro/dollar, which fell to 1.1361, is at its lowest since June 4, 2025, i.e. more than a year ago.
This notable easing of the euro/dollar allows European wheat to remain competitive against Black Sea prices, which have been trending downward for the past two weeks.
American market
The Chicago market is particularly quiet at the start of this week. The USDA crop ratings published Monday evening were seen as fairly neutral for corn and soybeans. Traders are therefore waiting to see how crops progress through their development stages. Overall, the weather is considered favourable, although here and there some excess rainfall is being reported.
Corn prices have eased and are testing last week’s support, while soybeans are showing slightly more mixed behaviour. The market therefore reacted little to the latest statements from President Trump, who said on Monday that the Iranian funds that have been released would be used to purchase US agricultural products including corn and soybeans.
By contrast, the decline is more pronounced in wheat. Spring wheat is falling the most and is dragging winter wheat down in its wake. Indeed, favourable rains are expected next week in the spring wheat production areas in both the United States and Canada.
Black Sea market
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