European market
Crude oil is back again to the $100/barrel area on the WTI. After a short passage close to $ 95/barrel last week, Donald Trump's announcement, deeming "totally unacceptable" Iran's response to the US peace plan proposal, changed once again the situation. With new ships hit this weekend in the region, crude oil is regaining a risk premium, which could support grains again. For its part, the euro/dollar parity came up against the resistance of 1.18 to return around 1.1750.
However, during the last sessions, reassuring remarks about the future of events in the Middle East had put market fundamentals back on the front of the stage. In this context, wheat September Euronext contract was back to its support of 205 €/t. At the same time, saving rains were falling in France. This is still the case this week and CéréObs judges that 80% of the wheat is in a good to excellent condition. The recent rainfall is likely to stop the decline in potential that began at the end of April. This same organization announces that 86% of the corn areas are planted.
In rapeseed, the strong decrease of last mid-week was coming to an end, while the vetegable oils remain a source of support. Palm oil managed to bounce back on its support, while soybean oil remains particularly well oriented.
On the international scene, the visit of the French head of state to the African continent is closely followed by the grain market. This is all the more scrutinized as France announces that it wants to warm up its diplomatic relations with Algeria, which translates into the upcoming return of the French ambassador to the country.
The last session took place in a special context, when many operators were absent because of the celebrations of 8 May in France.
American market
The week promises to be particularly busy for US market operators. Beyond a geopolitics that remains under the spotlight, other elements will come to animate the markets.
First of all, the eyes will be turned to the monthly publication of the USDA, this Tuesday, May 12, which will constitute the first report of the new campaign. Although the balance sheets, especially in wheat, are being scrutinized at a time when the American weather is challenging for farmers, it is corn that will also concentrate part of the attention. At a time when sowing is continuing in the Northern Hemisphere, the questions around the areas remain topical, in particular following the spike in fertilizer prices.
Secondly, the visit of the American president to China will be a decisive element for the soybean market. As usual, Chinese imports will be at the heart of the exchanges between the two leaders, enough to bring back some volatility to Chicago.
Corn export once again highlighted the strong dynamics, with volumes posted at 1.36 Mt. They amount to 79,000 t for wheat and 142,000 t for soybeans for the 2025/26 season.
Black Sea market
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