European market

Markets across Europe are off to a slow start this week, as all eyes turn toward upcoming announcements from Donald Trump. The 90-day pause promised to Europeans is set to expire this Wednesday, likely prompting action on both sides of the Atlantic. While the global trade landscape may be reshuffled, the U.S. President has left the door open for negotiations until August 1, once again pushing back the agenda.

On the ground, rain across France has interrupted harvest operations. As of June 30, only 11 % of the wheat acreage had been harvested, compared to 70 % for winter barley. Weather conditions remain favorable for corn and sunflower crops, which suffered during the early July heatwave. Still, some legitimate concerns are surfacing regarding wheat that has already matured. The expected return of dry weather in the coming days should allow harvesting to resume, dispelling uncertainty.

Market-wise, new developments are scarce, with Northern Hemisphere harvests progressing smoothly. Disappointing early yields from Ukraine and Russia will gradually give way to higher-performing regions. Meanwhile, Romania’s outlook for a record wheat harvest continues to solidify, providing ample supply to challenge other origins throughout the season.

In oilseeds, attention is focused on Canada, where little precipitation is forecast in the coming days, raising concerns among producers. Early-season stock levels will be tight, leaving no buffer for any weather-related setbacks.

American market

The anticipated pro-agriculture announcements from Donald Trump, expected during a speech in Iowa, failed to materialize, leaving market participants disappointed. Following a long Independence Day weekend, position adjustments led to a sharp pullback in Chicago prices.

On the ground, corn growing conditions continue to improve, with 74% of acreage now rated in good to excellent condition, compared to 68% at the same time last year. This reflects strong production potential, possibly approaching 400 million tons. Similarly, 66% of soybean acreage is also rated in good condition, and upcoming rainfall could further benefit these crops. Another key development is the progress of the winter wheat harvest, with 53% of fields already harvested.

On the trade front, the USDA reported an exceptional sale of 135,000 tons of corn to Mexico. In the coming days, the USDA report is set to offer fresh insight into a relatively comfortable global grain balance.

Black Sea market

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