European market
The French government is still in place, which gives a breath of fresh air to the latent budget crisis in France. On the other side of the Atlantic, voices are rising in favour of further FED rate cuts. This flow of information is pushing the euro up vs the dollar this weekend, with a return above 1.1700.
While the commodities sector is taking advantage of the weakening of the dollar to regain a little height, and funds are accompanying the movement with repurchases of positions, European wheat is adjusting down.
Much more exposed directly to international competition than its corn and rapeseed counterparts listed on Euronext, wheat prices adjust mechanically to the renewed firmness of the euro/ dollar. Add to this the increased threat of Argentine wheat which can now be sold to the Mediterranean basin, and here is the December 2025 contract which closes again below 188 €/t. The confirmation of purchase of two new French wheat boats by Egypt is nevertheless an encouraging signal on this extremely fought front of international exports.
The price gap is narrowing between wheat and corn on Euronext. November 2025 corn indeed manages to end the session up + 0.50 € / t to 184.25 € / t, in a context of strong disappointment in production in the south-west of France and on the Atlantic coast.
Rapeseed, on the other hand, is in great hesitation, torn on all sides between the fundamentals of vegetable oils, oilseeds and meals. This is evidenced by the large quotation gap observed yesterday on the November 2025 contract, which closes at €467.25/t up + €1.25/t after having processed €462.00/t at the lowest and €469.25/t at the highest.
To be noted on the international scene: a substantial purchase of 400,000 t of durum wheat by Algeria, most likely from North America.
American market
The Dollar Index has been falling again since the middle of the week and provides support on Chicago grain prices. The funds accompany the movement to the purchase on all the products of the Chicago Market.
On the corn market, discussions are still heated around the final yield of the 2025 harvest in the United States, with many questioning the height of the record expected in recent months. The arrival of rains on the Corn Belt will slow down the harvest and prolong the questioning of the moment.
The soybean market, for its part, welcomes the very good crushing figures for the month of September in the United States, which temporarily allow it to forget the setbacks of exports in the absence of Chinese purchases.
Wheat, which has just marked new lows this week in Chicago, is recovering on short covering, out of sympathy with the renewed firmness of other products, but also against a background of retention of US farmers whose profitability is being undermined.
Black Sea market
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