European market

The increase of the euro/dollar to 1.1650 at the end of last week, coupled with the absence of any bullish elements from the USDA, led to a decrease of all products at a close on Euronext on Friday evening.
While wheat December 2025 contract closes at a lower end of the week at €188.25/t after a weekly decline of -3.25 €/t, corn and rapeseed are doing better. Corn March 2026 contract shows a decline of -0.75 €/t to 189.50 €/t on Friday's session, but it nevertheless closes with a weekly increase of +0.25 € / t. Rapeseed February 2026 contracts is meanwhile down by 2.75 €/t to 479.75 €/t last Friday but ends with a weekly gain of +1.25 €/t.
French wheat remains extremely challenged on the front of non-EU countries exports. French corn and rapeseed exports are gaining momentum thanks to the slowed imports of these two products from Ukraine into the European Union.
The monthly WASDE report published on Friday evening is the subject of many discussions. The USDA wrote that the changes made on the US balance sheets were established on the basis of the information available on the day of publication, some data were missing after 6 weeks of shutdown.
On a global scale, there is nevertheless a need for an upward revision, even stronger than expected, of world wheat production in 2025/26. It is now expected by the USDA at 828.9 Mt against 816.2 Mt previously and 800.8 Mt in 2024/25. This results in a sharp increase in the expected global stock to 271.4 Mt against 264 Mt forecast in September by the USDA.
On the other hand, the world corn production in 2025/26 is changing little according to the USDA at 1,286.6 Mt against 1,286.2 Mt previously. The same applies to the world stock valued at 281.34 Mt against 281.4 Mt displayed in the September report.
In soybeans, world production is even revised down to 286.4 Mt against 287.7 Mt expected in September by the USDA. However, the 2025/26 stock rises slightly to 18.27 Mt against 18.15 Mt previously

American market

After the closure of the US federal administration from October 1 to November 12, the datas available for the establishment of US balance sheets are incomplete according to the USDA. The report published on Friday, November 14, however, was carefully followed by the market participants and remains the main element of the past week.
In wheat, the 2025/26 production in the United States was raised by +1.5 Mt to 54 Mt due to the better yields achieved than expected. The US carry-over stock is therefore up and above expectations at 24.5 Mt.
In corn, the USDA has only slightly lowered its 2025/26 yield estimate in the United States to 186 bu/acre against 186.7 bu/acre expected in September, which is well above expectations. Thus, US production remains posted by the USDA at a record level of 425 Mt. This results in an increase in the carry-over stock by +1.1 Mt to 54.7 Mt, the highest in 7 years.
In soybeans, the USDA is adjusting its US yield estimate downwards from -0.5 bu/acre to 53 bu/acre, which is below market expectations. US production fell by -1.3 Mt compared to the September report to 115.75 Mt. US exports have meanwhile been reduced by -1.4 Mt to 44.5 Mt, so that the carry-over stock of US soybeans for 2025/26 falls only very slightly to 7.9 Mt against 8.2 Mt previously expected.

Black Sea market

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