European market

For the first time in a month, Euronext wheat futures for September have closed above the psychological threshold of 210 €/t. While French wheat remains uncompetitive, further impacted by an euro/dollar exchange rate above 1.13, financial operators are beginning to reduce their positions. Weather concerns are pushing funds to secure part of their profits. This rebound is mainly technical, as the outlook for the new campaign remains comfortable.

Following recent frost episodes, drought is now settling over parts of Russia, prompting operators to closely monitor the situation. Similar concerns exist in northern Europe, although Scandinavian countries welcome forecasts predicting a return of rainfall. However, more will be needed to recover lost potential in recent weeks. Meanwhile, China is also under scrutiny: the national meteorological bureau warns of drought risk for 8% of the Henan region, which alone accounts for nearly 25 % of the country's winter wheat acreage.

As for rapeseed, prices are struggling to break the 490 €/t mark, while canola and palm oil are beginning to decline. This does not erase concerns over Australian weather, especially following a recent downward revision of Ukrainian production due to abandoned acreage.

American market

All U.S. commodities successively hit their resistance levels during yesterday's session. SRW wheat failed to break the 5.60 $/bushel mark, while corn stalled around 4.60 $/b and soybeans around 10.70 $/b. With financial operators maintaining a significant net short position, even minor weather concerns tend to be amplified. However, corn and soybean planting continues without issue, which could exert downward pressure on the entire grain complex.

The latest USDA report highlighted the importance of closely monitoring demand trends, which remain strong, particularly for corn. Beyond global feed consumption, the ethanol sector continues to play a key role. In fact, data published yesterday in the U.S. showed a weekly increase in ethanol production, accompanied by a decline in stocks.

On the macroeconomic front, the dollar index has fallen below the symbolic 100 threshold, as rating agencies reassess their evaluation of the financial health of the United States.

Black Sea market

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