European market

This week, shortened by one session in Europe due to the May 1st holiday on Euronext, is full of new developments in the commodity futures markets. On Monday, the CME Group launched trading of its new European rapeseed oil (RSO) futures contract, based on the Argus Media Fob Dutch Mill price reference.

Now, attention turns to the announcement made last night regarding the upcoming launch—on June 1st—of a new Black Sea wheat futures contract, also by the CME Group. This cash-settled contract will be based on the Argus Media Fob CVB price reference (covering Constanța in Romania, Varna, and Burgas in Bulgaria) with a protein content of 12.5 %. The physical reference price is available in the Argus Agrimarkets publication.

Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine three years ago, Black Sea wheat—which accounts for about 40% of global exports—has lacked a futures contract. With this new financial tool, market participants will once again have a means to manage price risks more effectively and bring greater transparency to the market. Pending regulatory approval, the CME Group plans to begin trading this new contract on June 2nd.

Yesterday was a day of uncertainty for commodities, with oil leading the downturn. The lack of significant progress in negotiations between the U.S. and China, combined with OPEC members' latest indications of increased production, drove oil prices below the symbolic 60 $ threshold in New York.

Adding to the market gloom was the decline in U.S. grain prices in Chicago, as well as a rise in the euro/dollar exchange rate above 1.14 during yesterday's session, further unsettling European grain markets.

Transactions have been particularly active in the near-term contracts, as market participants prepare for the upcoming expiration of May 2025 contracts on Euronext. The wheat contract—losing 4.75 €/t at yesterday’s close—will expire on May 12th, while the rapeseed contract, which dropped by more than 60 €/t yesterday, will expire today, Wednesday, April 30th, amid the delicate final position adjustments.

American market

Beyond the sharp decline in oil prices, the overall bearish sentiment observed yesterday in Chicago originated from the field. All commodities retreated in response to the USDA's weekly report, published on Monday, detailing crop conditions and planting progress.

The significant improvement in U.S. winter wheat conditions—now back to last year's level at 49 % rated as good to excellent—is weighing heavily on this market. This pressure is further reinforced by the expectation of beneficial rainfall in the southern Great Plains.

Soybeans are declining due to the near-record pace of U.S. planting progress, reaching 18 % compared to the usual 12 %. While corn planting is not advancing as quickly—standing at 24 % completed—highly favorable weather conditions for seed emergence are also exerting downward pressure on its prices.

Unlike the European market, the U.S. market will remain open this Thursday, May 1st, as it is not a public holiday in the United States.

Black Sea market

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