European market
The macroeconomic and geopolitical context remains very undecided and does not fail to fuel market volatility. On the 100th day of war, Israel and Iran exchanged new missile strikes yesterday, which brings crude oil prices back above $94 in New York on Monday morning against a low of $89.7 on Friday. The very good employment figures published on Friday in the United States have meanwhile reinforced the expectations of a rate hike by the Fed. A poorly seen dynamic on the side of the American stock exchanges which experienced strong selling pressure on Friday, dragging in their wake a large part of the financial assets.
In this context, the fall of the euro/dollar, which is now around 1.1530 at the lowest for 2 months, has largely cushioned the ambient downward pressure on European grains.
Wheat closes with an increase of +€0.25/t on Euronext's September and December 2026 contracts. The approach of the key level of 200 €/t on the front contract offers some additional reasons for support.
Corn is up at a close up by +€2.5/t on Friday on Euronext's August 2026 contract tp €218.75/t, validating the presence of an important support area around €215/t for this product.
On the other hand, rapeseed remained on the downside last Friday with a decline of -3.25 €/t closing for the August 2025 contract at 519.75 € /t.
If the more temperate and humid weather conditions benefit the future harvests in France, the heat wave of the previous week have contributed to a decline in the crops condition. FranceAgriMer published the following ratings on Friday in Cereobs report:
Soft wheat: 76% "good to excellent" down -3 points over the week and against 69% last year to date and 70% on 5-y average
Winter barley: 73% "good to excellent", down by -2 points over the week and against 65% last year and 71% on 5-y average
Spring barley: 68% "good to excellent", down -14 points over the week and against 73% last year and 74% on 5-y average
Durum wheat 65% "good to excellent", down -6 points over the week and against 73% last year to date and 68% on 5-y average.
American market
The fuds selling pressure remains the main driver of the fall in prices observed on Friday and throughout the past week in Chicago. The liquidations of positions are all the more massive as the dollar index is advancing after very good employment figures and expectations of an upcoming FED rate hike.
The favorable weather on the Corn Belt reinforces the downward seasonality of corn and soybeans while it is the advance of the harvest that feeds that of US wheat.
On the international scene, the competitive pressure of corn from the southern hemisphere is also pointed out by American corn sellers. In addition to the USDA's weekly report on crop ratings to be published this Monday evening, the news of the week will revolve around the WASDE monthly report for the month of June to be published this Thursday 11.
Black Sea market
Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.
