European market

The persistent anticyclone over France is allowing for rapid progress in autumn fieldwork. Corn and industrial crop harvesting, barley and wheat sowing, there’s no shortage of activity during this ideal weather window. This is helping extend producers’ reluctance to sell, especially as the first instalment of CAP subsidies at the end of the week will temporarily ease cash flow needs.

In this context, and with loading requirements slightly increasing in port areas, a hint of firmness is emerging on the soft wheat market. International demand is also picking up, as shown by an additional purchase from Saudi Arabia, bringing its recent optional-origin wheat buys close to 1 mnt.

Corn is following suit, partly out of sympathy and partly due to very disappointing yields in regions hardest hit by summer heatwaves. French corn is also benefiting from solid nearby demand within the EU.

Moving against the grain market trend, rapeseed is losing ground. It’s tracking the downward movement of a depressed oil barrel and defensive vegetable oils. The ongoing trade retaliation measures between the United States and China are raising serious concerns about global economic growth.

Agreste published yesterday its latest 2025 production estimates for France:

• Soft wheat: 33.178 mnt
• Durum wheat: 1.279 mnt
• Winter barley: 8.372 mnt
• Spring barley: 3.511 mnt
• Corn grain: 13.503 mnt
• Rapeseed: 4.631 mnt
• Sunflower: 1.455 mnt

American market

US grains are attempting a slight rebound after the sharp drop seen in recent sessions. However, enthusiasm remains limited due to the heavy backdrop of a trade war between the United States and China. Each day brings new threats of retaliation from both sides, undermining confidence in global growth and, more directly, in some purchases of US grains.

President Trump also threatened last night to halt US imports of used cooking oils—the well-known UCOs consumed by the biodiesel industry.

The tender in South Korea for 95,000 t of US and Canadian wheat is providing slight support to the market.

Among the few figures still being released by the USDA during this unusual shutdown period, weekly export inspections persist. The following volumes were reported for last week:

• Wheat: 444,138 t, bringing total loadings since the start of the campaign to 10.665 mnt, up +18.1 % compared to 2024 at the same date.
• Soybeans: 994,008 t, for a total of 4.04 mnt loaded since the start of the campaign, down -26 % compared to 2024 at the same date.
• Corn: 1.129 mnt, for a total of 7.84 mnt loaded since the start of the campaign, up +65 % compared to 2024 at the same date.

With few US figures to digest, operators are focusing on publications from competing countries. They welcomed yesterday’s report from Conab in Brazil, which shows the following production estimates for 2025/2026:

• Soybeans: 177.64 mnt, up +6.2 mnt year-on-year
• Corn: 138.6 mnt, down -2.5 mnt year-on-year

Black Sea market

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