European market
Ascension Thursday is one of the few days of the year when Euronext's agricultural commodity contracts are open for listing while a good half of Europe is on public holidays. If physical exchanges were at a standstill yesterday throughout the north of Europe, the volumes traded on Euronext were at 1,979 lots of corn, 10,650 lots of rapeseed and 68,721 lots of milling wheat.
The European market has mainly evolved under the influence of the United States with a widespread profit-taking session in Chicago, following an increase deemed excessive at the end of Tuesday night's USDA report.
The bearish correction, however, remained limited on Euronext in the context of decreasing euro/dollar. After opening the week at 1.1790, the euro/dollar is below 1.1650 this Friday, the lowest since April 8 last year. The persistence of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz maintains the firmness of crude oil with a WTI barrel at more than $102 this Friday, which reinforces inflationary pressures, especially in the United States where the probability of a rate hike by the FED this year is getting stronger and stronger and pushing the dollar higher.
In Western Europe, after welcoming the arrival of the saving rains at the beginning of the month, it is now their excess in places during the flowering of the wheat and especially the temperatures sometimes accompanied by frost that animate the discussions.
American market
The bearish correction was observed yesterday on Chicago. All products have been trending downwards with massive liquidations of positions on the part of the funds in corn, soybeans and to a lesser extent in wheat.
The excess of enthusiasm linked to the last USDA report and the achievement of important resistance zones are to be noted in the triggering factors. But it is above all President Trump's state visit to China that animated the discussions yesterday and pressured the atmosphere of the agricultural markets. The soybean market and to a lesser extent that of corn have indeed been particularly disappointed by the absence of announcements of new Chinese purchases, especially on the old campaign.
The expected return of some rains on the Great Plains also relieves the wheat market from a psychological point of view. However, the damage is already recorded on the ground. The wheat quality council crop tour which took place this week in Kansas nevertheless confirms the very low potential of the year. The yield of HRW wheat is estimated at 38.9 bu/acres, close to the 37.0 bu/acres expected by the USDA and against a five-year average of 45.5 bu/acres.
The USDA published yesterday the weekly export sales figures in the United States:
Wheat 2025/2026 133 500 t and 2026/2027 221 100 t
Corn 2025/2026 684 800 t
Soybeans 2025/2026 102 100 t.
Black Sea market
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