European market
After an extremely tense Tuesday, Trumpian dramaturgy once again set the pace for markets. Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iranian infrastructure and to attack “Iranian civilization” if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened by the expiration of his ultimatum at 20:00 Washington time. Markets therefore swung in line with each post from the U.S. president, unable to decide between military escalation and a diplomatic exit.
The situation finally shifted overnight. Washington and Tehran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement through Pakistani mediation, conditional on the reopening of the Strait, with negotiations scheduled for Friday in Islamabad. While the United States speaks of a “total victory,” Iran nevertheless specifies that this does not mean the end of the war. Market reaction this morning is immediate: WTI plunges nearly -15 % to 96.10 $/bl, while Brent crude loses -13.5 % to 94.5 $/bl, levels that nonetheless remain well above those seen before the conflict. Asian equities are soaring, with Tokyo in particular gaining more than 5 %. The euro/dollar is also rallying strongly toward 1.1680, its highest level since March 2.
Although the truce remains fragile and very short-term, with a geopolitical risk premium still far from fully absorbed, the easing backdrop should extend to the grain market in the middle of the week, all the more so in Europe under the weight of the euro/dollar.
At the start of spring, discussions remain active in cereals regarding production prospects for the new campaign. The condition of wheat coming out of winter in the Black Sea basin and in the United States is being closely monitored, while in corn it is Northern Hemisphere planting that is driving debate in a context of very high fertilizer prices.
In oilseeds, vegetable oils remain in the spotlight, highlighted by biofuel mandates revised upward across the world.
American market
The very sharp easing seen on the oil market, following the announcement of a ceasefire in Iran conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is a source of pressure for U.S. grains. Driven by fund buying, these markets had built in a geopolitical risk premium since mid‑February. They are now exposed to potential profit‑taking.
While the question of corn and soybean acreage for spring 2026 in the United States continues to be debated, the wheat market is instead dominated by the Weather Market. The announcement of favorable rainfall ahead in the Great Plains is thus offsetting disappointing crop conditions. With 35 % rated “good to excellent” for winter wheat, the USDA on Monday evening published its 7th weakest first spring crop rating since 1990. This figure came in well below analysts’ expectations at 42 % and well below last year’s level at the same time, which stood at 48 %.
Black Sea market
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