European market

Optimism remains in place on financial markets regarding a possible way out of the crisis in the Middle East. Nevertheless, oil prices are marking time and remain at high levels, while awaiting clearer signals. Thus, WTI is hovering around 90–92 $/barrel, while Brent is doing the same between 94 and 97 $/barrel. More detrimental for European grain prices, the euro/dollar continues its upward momentum. As at the end of February, it is once again testing the 1.1820 resistance level.

With no major changes on the fundamental or commercial front for grains, it is the weight of the currency that explains market movements, with an overall slight downward bias yesterday on Euronext.

This apparent calm gave operators time to follow yesterday’s publications, starting with the monthly balance sheets from FranceAgriMer, which showed little change.

Thus, in soft wheat, French export prospects to non-EU countries for 2025/2026 are maintained at 7.1 mn t, while Community sales gain 130,000 t compared with last month, reaching 7.7 mn t. This allows the sizeable projected stock as of 30 June 2026 to ease very modestly to 3.31 mn t, compared with 3.39 mn t published last month.

In barley as in maize, stock estimates increase only very modestly month on month. They rise respectively by + 80,000 t to 1.46 mn t and by 30,000 t to 2.36 mn t, mainly due to a slight upward adjustment in the latest harvest figures.

Across the Rhine, the German cooperative federation DRV published its 2026 harvest forecasts, with 22.4 mn t of wheat, 11.09 mn t of barley, 4.87 mn t of grain maize and 4.154 mn t of rapeseed.

In France, the maize producers’ association AGPM is sounding the alarm over a possible -10 to -15 % drop in grain maize area for 2026, in a context of low selling prices and soaring energy and fertiliser costs for producers.

On the European oilseed market, it is worth noting that transactions have been gaining momentum for a week on the new CME futures contract on European rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill (Argus). Indeed, 600 lots of 20 tonnes have recently been traded, with an open interest of 12,000 tonnes to date. Let us recall that this futures contract is cash-settled against the monthly average of the Argus quotation for rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill over the delivery month.

American market

A change in tone yesterday in Chicago, with buyers returning to soybeans and corn and sellers more present on wheat, the opposite of the previous day. Indeed, weather forecasts have changed over the United States, with more rainfall now raising fears of possible planting delays in corn and soybeans, while on the contrary offering some reassurance for the condition of deteriorated winter wheat.

The very strong firmness in corn, supported by a notable presence of funds on the buy side, nevertheless allowed wheat to close in positive territory last night. Skepticism remains widespread during this period of weather market, with rains that are still not fully assured of reaching as far as Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas, where the moisture deficit situation is most critical.

Black Sea market

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