European market
Quiet end of the year on the markets, with no clear trend for grains. The situation is different for oilseeds, with rapeseed remaining close to the 450 €/t zone on the February Euronext contract, after the recent weeks’ decline.
On the information side, note the new upward revision of wheat production in Argentina by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The organization announces a record for the 2025 campaign, at 27.8 mnt compared to 27.1 mnt previously. The country had never reached such a level before, a sign that supplies in the Southern Hemisphere remain substantial. Australia, for its part, also shows significant volumes.
On this last day of 2025, it is interesting to take a step back and measure the year’s price variations on nearby contracts:
- Euronext wheat: start of the year around 239 €/t, today at 190 €/t.
- Euronext corn: start of the year around 212 €/t, today at 189 €/t.
- Euronext rapeseed: start of the year around 525 €/t, today at 452 €/t.
- Feed barley delivered Rouen (July basis): start of the year around 210 €/t, today at 188 €/t.
- Planet spring barley FOB Creil: start of the year around 240 €/t, today at 185 €/t.
- Sunflower delivered Saint-Nazaire: start of the year around 620 €/t, today at 610 €/t.
While many factors explain this generalized price decline, it is worth highlighting the evolution of the euro/dollar exchange rate: over 1.17 today, compared to less than 1.03 at the start of the year. This movement has consequences for the competitiveness of European origins and, indirectly, on the balance between supply and demand.
American market
U.S. prices are still struggling to break out of a wait-and-see phase at the end of the year. Position adjustments made by financial players are not enough to bring life back to the markets.
Thus, despite an exceptional sale of 136,000 t of U.S. soybeans to China and 231,000 t to an unknown destination, the bean remains close to $10.60/bu in Chicago. Nothing seems, in the short term, able to trigger a bullish move on grains and oilseeds. We’ll have to wait for the next USDA report and further balance sheet adjustments to hope for a clearer trend to emerge.
Operators remain attentive to the situation in the Black Sea, amid diplomatic swings and new attacks. According to Ukrainian authorities, several vessels were recently hit near Odessa, which naturally draws part of the sector’s attention.
Black Sea market
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