European market
The downward movement in crude oil, coupled with a slight increase in the euro against the dollar, to above 1.1250, causes a decline in oilseed prices, both in vegetable oils and seeds. The prices of rapeseed on Euronext are more than 10 €/t down on the 2026 harvest, back below 530 €/t for the February 2027 contract at the end of the day. This downward movement brings seed prices back to their lowest levels since last August 25th. The decline is also observed in the rapeseed oil market. On the CME rapeseed oil contract, FOB Dutch Mill (Argus), prices are also falling, with a price for the February 2027 contract at €1,210/t from now on. In the current context of falling prices, there will be many exchanges between the operators of the biofuels sector present at the European Stock Exchange in Rotterdam this week.
The upward adjustment of the euro against the dollar, following the results of the elections in the USA, constitutes a factor of decline in grain prices in Europe. Nevertheless, the downward movement in grain prices is less than on rapeseed. Wheat prices for December 2026 contract on Euronext, are back to trading at their lowest level since mid-July, close to €224/t. The market is returning to the same price levels in wheat as at the beginning of the renewed uncertainties linked to the blocking of export activity in the Black Sea at the beginning of the summer, fears which were then confirmed. From now on, the operators remain attentive to the evolution of the situation in the Black Sea and in particular to the potential results of the exchanges scheduled next week between the Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Abu Dhabi. The decrease is also continuing in corn, with distant contract prices approaching Euronext levels observed in mid-August.
American market
Wheat and corn prices in Chicago recorded a new downward movement at the beginning of the session yesterday, following the decline observed the day before driven by the hope of an evolution of the situation in the Black Sea, before finally closing the session on an almost unchanged level in wheat and a slight increase in corn. The strong downward movement of recent weeks now leads grain prices to regain important technical support points, corresponding to the lowest levels traded since the beginning of July. The return of prices to these levels favours the repositioning of some buyers, also helped by a new decline in the dollar after the result of the elections in the USA. The December 2026 contract closed yesterday, in wheat, below $6/bu at $5.9850/bu, and in corn at $4.4425/bu, after having traded at $4.3850/bu in session.
The results of the mid-term elections in the USA allow for the moment to consider a possible de-escalation in the conflicts where the USA is currently engaged. This scenario nevertheless remains to be confirmed in the coming months, but it offers an additional argument to the strong correction in crude oil prices which, since the beginning of the week, have recorded a strong decline in international financial centers. This decline is directly weighing on soybean oil prices in Chicago. The January 2027 contract for soybean oil returns to its lowest level in almost six months, now showing below c$64/lb. In parallel, soybean prices are also falling and are testing the $12/bu area on the January 2027 contract, lowest level since mid-August.
Black Sea market
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