European market

Volatility remains the watchword on the wheat market. Concerns about Russia remain high. New regions have declared a state of emergency following last week's frost. The return of rains is uncertain and insufficient. Local and international analysts are lowering their production estimates one by one. Nevertheless, the market is seeking above all to consolidate and catch its breath after rising sharply by more than €40/t in three weeks.

The sharp rise in the euro/dollar exchange rate, which is back near 1.09, is also penalising European prices. On the ground, excessive rainfall remains a problem in France and much of Western Europe.

It is against this backdrop that Agreste yesterday published its new estimates for the 2024 harvest in France. Generally speaking, winter crops are down:

Common wheat 4.399 Mha, down 7.5% on 2023
Durum wheat 231,000 ha -2.2 %
Winter barley 1,286 Mha -5.8 %
Rapeseed 1,334 Mha -0.8 %

While spring crops are on the increase :

Spring barley 502,000 ha +12.2 %
Grain corn 1,359 Mha +10.5 %
Sunflower 823,000 ha unchanged

American market

Better-than-expected results from the crop tour currently being carried out on HRW wheat in Kansas have offset concerns about Russia. As a result, wheat continues to correct downwards in Chicago. The correction is more global and also concerns soybean and corn. The weather remains rainy, however, and this is having a detrimental effect on planting progress in the Corn Belt.

The NOPA figures published last night showed a 15.5% fall in US soybean crush in April to 166.034 million bushels, the lowest level for 7 months.

Yesterday the USDA announced a one-off sale of 405,000 tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations.