European market

The tense geopolitical context is still present, with a very sensitive situation both on the Black Sea side and in the Middle East. The escalation between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels is amplifying the blockages on Saudi crude oil exports. Brent crude is back at $108 this morning in London after a very brief weekend relaxation below $105 on Friday evening.
At the same time, the decline in the euro/dollar continues to 1.1568. The dollar is playing its role as a safe haven internationally and is reacting to expectations of a rate hike from the FED which is meeting this week. The CPI cost index in the United States, maintained at 3.4% for the month of August, indeed reinforces the bullish consensus on US rates.
On Euronext, the decline extended to all products on Friday. The profit-taking, accentuated by the weekend, was also accentuated by a USDA report which did not bring a new bullish element.
In wheat, the USDA has even been reassuring by raising its global stock estimate by 3 Mt to 276.3 Mt over 2026/27, mainly due to production increases. Among other things, the Australian and Canadian productions were raised respectively by 3 Mt to 31 Mt and by 1 Mt to 36 Mt. Note a first consideration of the current blockages with a cumulative cut of 4 Mt in Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports compared to last month.
In corn, the situation is weighed down on the old 2025/26 campaign with a global stock raised by the USDA by 2.55 Mt to 301.4 Mt. This mitigates the downward revision of the 2026/27 global stock, which increases to 272.1 Mt against 274.66 Mt last month. The 2026/27 global corn production is expected at 1,291 Mt against 1,299 Mt last month.
In soybeans, the USDA shows almost a status quo on the 2026/27 global stock, estimated at 124 Mt against 124.2 Mt last month, which remains close to the 125.3 Mt expected at the end of the 2025/26 campaign.
In Europe, the USDA only slightly reduced its 2026 wheat harvest estimate to 133.8 Mt from 134.2 Mt last month, while the expected corn production for 2026 was raised from 0.4 Mt to 50.6 Mt, contrary to consensus.
After being cooled last Monday by the cancellation of a call for tenders from Saudi Arabia, the soft wheat market will be attentive at the beginning of the week to the call for tenders launched by Algeria.

Black Sea market

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