European market

Surge in cereal prices on Euronext, with an increase of nearly 7 €/t for September wheat futures, closing at 209 €/t. After losing 40 €/t since February, this rebound remains relative, even though it occurs in a context of increasing weather uncertainties. Following a smooth start to spring, some regions are now declaring a state of emergency. This is particularly the case in China, where temperatures are reaching extreme levels, and in Russia, where frost may have compromised part of the production potential in the Rostov region. While the extent of the losses remains uncertain, these events remind financial operators, who are heavily positioned for selling, that weather conditions can quickly change the game.

In Europe, the continent remains divided along a north-south axis, leaving northern regions in a concerning water deficit. Yield potential already seems weakened in some areas, particularly in France, where crop advancement is noteworthy. The rare rainfall expected in the coming days will be closely monitored.

Operators still note a lack of attractiveness for French wheat origins, especially as French wheat is losing competitiveness due to the rising euro/dollar exchange rate, now above 1.13.

August rapeseed futures are following the trend, approaching 490 €/t, supported by the firmness of palm oil and canola. Weather conditions from Canada to Australia remain under close watch and could still bring surprises.

American market

The upward momentum was also supported by Chicago, where the deterioration of wheat crop conditions is viewed unfavorably. Only 52 % of winter wheat is now rated as good to excellent, down from 54 % the previous week, a notable disappointment for market operators. Meanwhile, fieldwork is progressing well, with 78 % of corn acreage already planted and 66 % for soybeans.

Further south, in Argentina, rainfall has intensified in some regions, abruptly halting soybean harvesting. Additionally, the government has extended the reduction of export taxes on wheat and barley until March 31, 2026.

On the international stage, markets remain attentive to statements from Donald Trump. However, for the time being, the situation appears to be stabilizing across several countries.

Black Sea market

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