European market

Red remains dominant on the European wheat market. Wheat continues to lose ground, notably due to the progress of harvests in the Northern Hemisphere and production prospects deemed satisfactory. At the same time, the rise in the euro/dollar exchange rate—approaching 1.18—adds further pressure to a market seeking competitiveness. Conversely, the weakness of the dollar is lending renewed strength to U.S. prices.

On the ground, harvesting continues in France, with winter barley yields still considered decent, which is weighing on prices. In Creil, for instance, winter malting barley has dropped nearly 30 €/t in just a few days, a sign of increased availability. As for wheat, harvesting is just beginning, and the coming days will help assess the impact of the recent heatwave.

High temperatures and lack of rainfall are also affecting the European maize market. Prices are managing to resist pressure from other cereal complex products, hovering around 200 €/t for the November Euronext contract. Eastern Europe remains under close watch, as the region has faced recurring climate challenges for several years, discouraging some producers.

Oilseeds aren’t spared from downward pressure either. European rapeseed for August delivery has posted its seventh consecutive decline, even returning to its lowest levels seen last May.

American market

Two-speed session for U.S. grain prices yesterday, marked by some position covering from financial operators. This movement was especially noticeable in wheat, with nearby contracts regaining some strength. Although harvesting continues and eases certain concerns, U.S. origins remain competitive. The drop in prices, combined with the decline in the dollar index, is making American wheat more attractive to international buyers.

Operators also adjusted their positions following the release of the USDA report and crop conditions. No major surprises, but the new data confirms expectations for a very large 2025 corn harvest. The flowering period is still ahead, but optimism prevails regarding production prospects.

In Canada, canola prices remain volatile, with very little room for weather-related incidents. The lack of rainfall is supporting prices, which have climbed back above the psychological threshold of 700 CAD/t on the Winnipeg exchange.

Black Sea market

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