European market

Wheat prices showed an increase yesterday on Euronext. The prices of the December 2024 contract, which is due to expire soon, have traded close to recent lows around €209/t, before rebounding. The next March 2025 contract is also close to lows of last month at € 220 /t. Despite the upward movement at the end of the day, market participants obviously remain attentive to the price spread between Western European wheat and prices in the Black Sea region. The movements linked to the dollar's rise remain an important element of price adjustment.
Just before the beginning of the second part of the campaign, European operators are following with interest the production forecasts in the southern hemisphere. In Australia, ABARES has announced a potential wheat production of 31.9mn t for the current season, erasing last year's decline. The rise in estimates is also observed in barley production 2024-25 expected at 11.7mn t.
In canola, the Australian harvest is announced to be down by around -8% compared to last year at 5.6mn t. This element also provides a little support for rapeseed prices after the recent correction of the end of November on Euronext.

American market

The resumption of activity following the recent Thanksgiving holiday showed little variation yesterday in wheat market with prices falling slightly on the March 2025 contract. The strengthening of the dollar is weighing on wheat prices still close to the lowest levels since last August. 
In corn, the situation is a little different with prices returning to a level of the beginning of last week. However, the evolution of fund positions is worth watching. According to the latest figures provided by the CFTC, funds have increased sales operations last week.   
In soybeans, prices have changed little despite the announcement of a new exceptional sale for export to China for 134,000 t over the current campaign. The prices of the March 2025 contract recorded a new decline, back to the contracts lows below $9.85/bu. The contract has finally closed above $ 9.90 /bu. Soybean oil and meal prices in Chicago are also declining. The good conditions with the return of rains in Brazil reassure, especially as the sowing is finalizing. Argentina is also benefiting from a favourable situation as sowing work begins.

Black Sea market

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