Markets were hesitant yesterday. If fundamentals remain tight, the dynamism of the demand is questioned again by the expansion of coronavirus cases in the world. Another element in the price structure is of course the Chinese demand. The latter was at the origin of the recent surge in prices to meet a double objective, i.e. to rebuild stocks and meet the demand of farmers who have replenished their pig herds. However, a new case of swine fever has just been discovered in China, raising doubts about the future situation.
On the international market we can note the sales of 336 500 t of corn to undisclosed destination, 136 000 t of soybean to China and 163 290 t of corn to Mexico. Saudi Arabia is seeking 480 000 t of feed barley, optional origins, for March-April shipment.
Climatic conditions are improving in South America thanks to beneficial rains especially in Argentina where soybean and corn plantings are ending. In the Black Sea basin, temperatures are increasing after the recent cold snap. In this region, producers are not too much worried regarding growing conditions.
Palm prices are highly volatile. This product is puzzled between fears about production due to flooding in Malaysia on one side and lower exports on the other side. Irregularity is also perceptible in rapeseed, pushing to some cautiousness in the oilseed prices’ risk management.
The Dollar is retreating slightly this morning at 1.2180 vs. Euro and 73.85 vs. Rouble. The crude oil in NY is little changed at 52.60 $/b.
There was little change in the US markets yesterday, which were split between fears about the consequences of the rebound in the health crisis and a tight global balance in corn and soybean.
Beneficial rains in South America suggest that crop conditions could improve, even if it is a bit late now. Soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach around 130 million tonnes and the corn crop just over 100 million tonnes. In Argentina, production of these two products is expected to be slightly below 50 million tonnes.
The new US President Joe Biden intends to renegotiate the 15 January 2020's trade agreement between the US and China.
Yesterday funds were net buyers for 5,000 lots of corn and 2,000 lots of soybeans. They were net sellers for 7,000 lots of wheat.
Black Sea market
Russian farmers are running a petition to demand a withdrawal of taxes on grain exports. They explain that they are doing their best to ensure both the country's food security and increase its export potential. Aware of the social importance of their products and given the priority need to supply the domestic market with grain, the producers do not oppose government measures to set grain export quotas but want the taxes that deprive them of significant income to be withdrawn.