European market
Euronext prices closed lower yesterday across all contracts, wheat, corn and rapeseed, after a session in which price swings remained significant. Uncertainty surrounding port logistics from Russia and Ukraine remains the main source of concern for operators, as the situation stays tense following last week's renewed tensions and the operations observed on a daily basis.
Possible position arbitrage by importers, towards one origin or another, will be important to monitor during this late-summer period and could support export activity, particularly in Europe. To date, the European Commission, based on the figures available to it, reports exports of soft wheat to third countries down by nearly -50 % compared with last year, with an even sharper decline in barley so far. In corn, import volumes are increasing as expected in response to the decline in European production forecast for 2026, with the main origins being Ukraine, the United States and Brazil.
Rapeseed prices experienced significant volatility yesterday, with an intraday range of more than 10 €/t on the Nov 26 contract. As the market approached the 545 €/t level on this contract, a pullback was observed, similar to that seen on the Canadian market. Canola prices in Winnipeg on the Nov 26 contract, which were approaching their highest levels since July, recorded a sharp decline after several consecutive sessions of gains. European producers are closely watching weather forecasts during the second half of August in the hope that sufficient rainfall will materialise, allowing rapeseed field preparation and planting work to proceed.
American market
Firmness was noted yesterday on the soybean market in Chicago, where the Nov 26 contract traded above 12.30 $/bu before losing momentum late in the session and ultimately posting a moderate gain. The current price level has nevertheless erased the entire decline seen since 28 July on this contract. New flash sales reported yesterday by the USDA, amounting to 136,000 t to China for the new crop year, are supporting the market, following the strong business activity already recorded last week. In addition, counts carried out in the states of Nebraska and Indiana as part of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour show, in line with the previous day's figures, a decline in soybean yield potential compared with last year, which is also supporting prices.
In corn, the conclusion is similar across these same areas, with observations made yesterday during the Pro Farmer Crop Tour indicating yield potential below both last year’s level and the three-year average. Prices in Chicago continue to trade around the technical level of 4.90 $/bu on the Dec 26 contract. The recent upward movement has brought both new-crop and old-crop prices back to their highest levels since July. In this context, US exporters are closely monitoring the price spread between US origins and South American corn.
After the strong upward momentum observed last week, driven by the situation in the Black Sea and uncertainty surrounding port export activity, wheat prices in Chicago have edged lower since the start of the week. Trading sessions continue to be marked by significant price swings, reflecting the current hesitation among market participants in response to the ongoing situation. Prices on the Dec 26 contract closed lower yesterday and very close to the 6.80 $/bu level.
Black Sea market
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