European market

Since its volatile movements last mid-week, the euro/dollar has been consolidating in the 1.1640-1.1660 range. The anticipation of a rate cut at this week's FED meeting is on focus now.
Stronger euro is penalizing EU grain prices. As in the previous week, the Euronext March 2026 wheat closed on Friday evening below €190/t with a decline of -0.5 €/t to €189.25/t in a context of strong international competition. The recent and strong increases in 2025 wheat production posted in Argentina, Australia and Canada confirm ample wheat supplies globally.
Rapeseed is down on the week in the face of the decline in soybeans in Chicago disappointed by the delay in Chinese purchases and in the face of the decline in canola prices. The Canadian 2025-26 canola harvest was posted at 21.8 Mt according to Statscan. Nevertheless, with a close up by + 2 € /t to 476.50 € / t in February 2026, rapeseed limits its weekly decline and illustrates low imports to date in the EU.
The vegetable oil sector is also supported by the firmness of crude oil. The escalation of geopolitical tensions has in fact just led to a second consecutive week of increase for WTI in New York. Indeed, US President Donald Trump is toughening the tone towards Venezuelan drug traffickers. Operators see this as a risk of further blocking Venezuela's oil production. While the lack of progress in the peace plan between Russia and Ukraine excludes for the moment the hypothesis of a reintroduction of Russian oil on the free market. The supply from the OPEC+ countries, which has been continuously raised since the beginning of the year, is however sufficient to counterbalance the concerns of the moment, leaving prices to balance around $60/barrel in New York.

American market

Bearish pressure took over all products on Friday in Chicago. US wheat is declining in particular due to lack of export competitiveness, in a context of international ample supply reported by the various official publications last week with Abares for Australia and Statscan for Canada.
Also declining on Friday evening, US corn however enjoys some support with a very good export momentum and echoing a slight delay in Argentine sowing. The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange estimates the progress of corn sowing in Argentina at 44% compared to 46% last year to date.
Despite the announcement of a new exceptional sale of 462,000 t of US soybeans to China, soybean prices remain depressed. The 2,845 Mt already sold to China are considered insufficient at this stage of the campaign and the operators seem to be impatient to see more.
The market should remain wait-and-see at the beginning of the week while waiting for the USDA's December WASDE report to be published this Tuesday, December 9th.

Black Sea market

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