European market

The expectations of relaxation in the blockages both of crude oil in the Middle East and of grains in the Black Sea weighed again on the prices of agricultural raw materials yesterday. The decline in Brent crude oil to the lowest since July 16 to $85/barrel is based on a real pause, since the weekend, in the strikes between the United States and Iran. On the contrary, the appeasement in the Black Sea is based only on rumours while the strikes continue on both sides.
The operators are eagerly awaiting the meeting between President Trump and Zelensky scheduled for Tuesday, while yesterday the issue of grain exports to the Black Sea was raised at the UN Security Council but without concrete progress to date.
In this context, wheat prices lost -3.50 €/t at the close yesterday on the September 2026 contract of Euronext. The decline in corn was less significant with only -0.75 € / t in November 2026 in a context of the arrival of a 4th wave of heat wave in France. Rapeseed is the biggest faller with -14.25 €/t in November 2026. More broadly, the vegetable oil sector and the entire oilseed complex are undergoing a very strong correction in the wake of crude oil. 
In its MARS bulletin, the European Commission revised down yesterday all of its estimates and yield prospects in the EU as a direct consequence of the heat waves and the water deficit that are hitting a majority of EU countries.

Soft wheat: 5.88 t/ha against 6 t/ha expected last month
Barley: 5.02 t/ha against 5.09 t/ha expected last month
Corn for grain: 6.93 t/ha against 7.38 t/h expected last month
Rapeseed: 3.14 t/ha against 3.18 t/ha expected last month
Sunflower seed: 2.62 t/ha against 2.75 t/ha expected last month.

Black Sea market

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