European market

The beginning of the week is marked by a renewed firmness in crude oil prices, rebounding in New York by more than 5%, and even regaining during the session the level of $95/b after the announcement of Iran to suspend negotiations with the USA. The information remains contradictory between the two parties, with the hope that an agreement could be reached on the side of the White House. Meanwhile, with the exception of vegetable oil prices, the agricultural raw material markets have finally reacted little to this rebound in crude oil prices, a movement that is also running out of steam slightly this morning.
The start of grain harvests in Europe leads to focus more and more on the volume of production to come for the 2026 harvest. Last week's heat wave still brings fears about the real impact on crops. Despite everything, prices on Euronext yesterday marked a new decline, down -1 €/t on the September 2026 contract, with prices closing at the lowest for a month. The approach of the closing of the June 2026 contract leads to strong amplitudes, regaining levels more in line with reality after the strong increase recorded last week. The August 2026 contract is slightly down back under 225 €/t.
On the other hand, rapeseed prices rebounded, erasing part of last weekend's decline. But the August 2026 contract is trading below €530/t. European operators remain attentive to production potentials and obviously to possible sources of seeds to be imported.
In the southern hemisphere, Abares' forecasts expect a much lower production potential in Australia than last year's record harvest. In wheat, the volume displayed for the 2026 harvest is 26.7 Mt, in sharp decline. In canola, the prospect appears at 6.2 Mt, far from the volumes of the 2025 harvest. In barley, the decrease shown is of the order of -15%, with 14.1 Mt of production.

American market

Corn and wheat prices in Chicago recorded a new decline yesterday. July corn contract returns to below $4.45/bu, at the lowest since last February 20th. In the new harvest, sowing is accelerating and now exceeds 93% of the projected areas. The first ratings of the corn condition are displayed at 67% in a "good to excellent", a slight decrease compared to last year. The prices of the December 2026 contract are also moving downwards and are returning during the session to the lowest levels since the beginning of March. In wheat, the first winter wheat cuts continue, with just 5% of the harvested areas to date, with disappointments on yields confirmed. In spring wheat, the crop conditions are slightly deteriorating compared to last week with 47% of the crops in a "good to excellent" condition compared to 50% last year at the same period. On the July 2026 contract, the SRW wheat contract fell below $6.10/bu and the HRW wheat returned yesterday under $6.50/bu.
The downward movement has also affected soybean with prices back to the $11.80/bu area on the July 2026 contract. In the new harvest, the sowing has accelerated with now 87% of the projected areas done. The condition of the crops is judged "good to excellent" for 66% of the areas, a level slightly lower than last year. The prices of soybeans in new harvest fell slightly below the level of $11.90/bu. Soybean oil prices remain firm, marking new highs by closing the session above c$79/lb for the July 2026 contract. The upward movement is similar on the following contracts even if prices remain lower, like the December 2026 contract which now comes to test the 74 c$/lb area.
In parallel with the evolution of energy prices, operators also remain very attentive to weather models. Rains are thus hoped for by the weekend on the plains of the Midwest.

Black Sea market

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