European market
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is being felt, as Iran has reportedly again targeted a crude oil site belonging to one of its Gulf neighbors. Although the Americans are trying to escort ships via the Strait of Hormuz in order to revive maritime flows in the area, this initiative is not to the liking of the Iranians. Crude oil is again approaching $105/barrel and is dragging some of the vegetable oils in its wake.
This renewed firmness propels rapeseed on Euronext to new highs, with an August contract that closed at €527.50/t. The rapeseed also benefits from the decline in the euro/dollar parity below 1.17, while the dollar index strengthens thanks to its safe haven status.
Corn on Euronext also manages to trade on its contract highs, at €225.25/t on the June contract. The low availability in Europe, combined with the uncertainties regarding the areas of the next campaign, add to a global demand for ethanol which remains sustained.
Finally, on the wheat side, the recent rainfall partially reassures French producers. Although the rains have been uneven, the weather models are expected to be more generous in the coming days, an element that will be closely scrutinized by the entire market. In terms of world trade, we will finally note the new call for tenders from Algeria, in search of volumes to be contracted for shipments at the beginning of July.
Note that in this first week of May, the physical prices that we indicate pass on the 2026 harvest with the exception of corn and sunflower seed which will remain in harvest 2025 until the end of July.
American market
American markets continue to show a certain firmness. Although the fundamentals differ according to the markets, grains are returning to levels that had not been reached for several months.
HRW wheat is still flirting with the $7/bushel mark on the July contract, while the drought persists in the main winter wheat production areas. The few rains announced are coming too late to really change the situation, even if the USDA has raised the share of winter wheat classified in good to excellent condition by one point. This now reaches 31%, a level much lower than the average of 51% observed in recent years.
In addition, the question of areas remains at the heart of concerns, operators remaining perplexed by the latest publication from the USDA. The next reports should make adjustments, although, at this stage, the plantings are advancing at a good pace. The work is carried out up to 38%, i.e. a weekly increase of 13 points.
Finally, on the soybeans side, prices are rising in particular in the wake of soybean oil, which continues to show strong upward momentum. The strong demand, intended partly to compensate for the energy crisis, supports the entire complex. In the field, 33% of areas are planted, compared to an average of 23% in recent years.
On the export inspections side, the figures stand out as follows :
Corn: 2.03 Mt, above expectations
Soybeans: 450,000 t, at the low end of expectations
Wheat: 430,000 t, in line with expectations.
Black Sea market
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