European market
Markets firmed across the board yesterday against a backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions. New strikes in the Black Sea targeting cargo vessels off the coast of Bulgaria fuelled discussions yesterday, although at the same time statements supporting trilateral negotiations have resurfaced. In the Middle East, attention remains focused on attacks carried out by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Crude oil continues to climb, now trading above 94 $ in New York. This strength is supporting the commodities sector as a whole, with the BCOM index moving back towards its early-September highs.
The wheat market was also supported on Euronext by renewed demand from importing countries. Algeria is the clearest example, with the OAIC yesterday concluding a tender for around 600,000 t of soft wheat at a C&F price level roughly 5 to 6 $/t higher than in the previous September tender.
Corn continues to reflect a very unusual situation this year, with a disastrous harvest in France. The Ministry of Agriculture is gradually taking this severe situation into account, with a further downward revision yesterday of the French 2026 corn crop to 7.3 mn t from 8.1 mn t. Even so, this figure remains well above the estimate expected by Argus Media analysts. As harvesting wraps up unusually early in France and with the expiry of the Euronext Nov 26 contract now only three weeks away, the situation is accelerating amid short-covering. The Nov 26 corn contract gained 12 €/t yesterday to settle at a new high of 289 €/t, nearly 20 €/t above the Mar 27 contract.
Rapeseed was no exception, with Feb 27 and May 27 Euronext contracts closing up 7 €/t and returning to their respective resistance zones. Rapeseed oil remains particularly firm in the background.
The latest French 2026 production estimates published yesterday by Agreste are as follows:
- Soft wheat: 31.49 mn t, down 5.6 % year-on-year
- Durum wheat: 1.1 mn t, down 15.6 %
- Barley: 10.59 mn t, down 11 %
- Rapeseed: 4.74 mn t, up 1.7 %
- Sunflower: 1.22 mn t, down 14.2 %
- Corn: 7.1 mn t, down 48.1 %
American market
The consolidation seen the previous day continued on the Chicago market. Despite support from crude oil and ongoing geopolitical tensions in both the Middle East and the Black Sea, prices struggled to hold onto their intraday gains. Wheat, corn and soybeans therefore all closed slightly lower yesterday. The market is still digesting the latest USDA report, which was particularly bearish for corn, while harvest pressure continues to build on both corn and soybeans. Wheat, meanwhile, remains short of export competitiveness.
Due to the Columbus Day holiday on Monday in the United States, the USDA did not release its Crop Progress report until after yesterday's close. The report highlighted the following:
- Corn: 33 % harvested versus 23 % last week and 39 % on average over the past five years. The pace remains behind expectations.
- Soybeans: 46 % harvested versus 25 % last week and 50 % on average over the past five years. At the upper end of market expectations.
- Winter wheat: 51 % planted versus 36 % last week and 58 % on average over the past five years. In line with expectations.
Black Sea market
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