Pre-opening 26/02/2021
Paris Chicago
Wheat- 1 €/t- 6 cents
Corn- 1 €/t- 6 cents
Rapeseed- 1 €/t to - 2 €/t
Soybean- 12 cents
Indexes 26/02/2021
€/$1.2121 $
Oil WTI61.50 $/b

Wheat (€/t)
Mar 21245.00-0.75
May 21229.50-2.00
Sep 21199.75-1.50
Dec 21199.50-1.50
Mar 22200.75-1.25
Corn (€/t)
Mar 21226.25-3.00
Jun 21220.00-0.75
Aug 21215.75-1.00
Nov 21187.50-0.25
Jan 22188.50-0.25
Rapeseed (€/t)
May 21491.50+3.25
Aug 21423.75-3.75
Nov 21416.50-1.00
Feb 22413.50-0.75
May 22410.75-2.25

26/02/2021

Wheat (€/t) : 1744 lots
LotsTypeStrike
300Call May 21240.00
4Call Sep 21220.00
20Call Sep 21240.00
20Call Dec 21200.00
170Call Dec 21215.00
20Call Dec 21220.00
20Call Dec 21230.00
20Call Dec 21240.00
700Call Mar 22201.00
300Put May 21225.00
20Put Dec 21199.00
150Put Dec 21200.00
Corn (€/t) : 0 lots
LotsTypeStrike
Rapeseed (€/t) : 386 lots
LotsTypeStrike
50Call May 21450.00
50Call May 21460.00
1Call May 21465.00
30Call May 21470.00
13Call Aug 21425.00
200Call Aug 21430.00
4Call Nov 21415.00
2Call Nov 21430.00
10Call Nov 21450.00
20Call Nov 21500.00
3Call May 22410.00
3Put May 21470.00

Wheat (¢/b)
Mar 21655.0000-16.7500
May 21660.2500-15.5000
Jul 21650.0000-14.0000
Sep 21646.2500-14.2500
Dec 21650.0000-13.5000
Corn (¢/b)
Mar 21555.5000+1.7500
May 21547.5000-0.7500
Jul 21535.0000-3.2500
Sep 21489.5000-2.7500
Dec 21470.7500-3.0000
Soybean (¢/b)
Mar 211405.2500+2.2500
May 211404.2500+0.2500
Jul 211391.5000-3.0000
Aug 211348.2500-5.7500
Sep 211266.5000-5.0000
Soy meal ($/st)
Mar 21423.2000+0.1000
May 21421.4000-0.6000
Jul 21418.7000-1.1000
Aug 21407.3000-0.9000
Sep 21394.3000-1.5000
Soy oil (¢/lb)
Mar 2151.3400+0.5400
May 2149.9400+0.4100
Jul 2148.8000+0.2700
Aug 2147.4700+0.2100
Sep 2146.1000+0.1800

26/02/2021

Physical (€/t)
Durum wheat delivered La Pallice Spot - July 2020 basis275.00+0.00
Wheat delivered Rouen - July 2020 basis233.00-1.00
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2020 basis221.00-1.00
Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2020 basis225.00-2.00
Feed barley delivered Rouen - July 2020 basis217.00-1.00
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2020 basis220.00+0.00
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot - Flat - 2020 harvest494.00+4.00
Standard sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot - Flat - 2020 harvest545.00+0.00
Feed peas FOB Creil Spot - August 2020 basis280.00+0.00

Events

Analysis 26/02/2021

European market

Yesterday afternoon, markets retreated after the release of poor US export figures well under traders’ expectations. Is this movement a one-off or a more sustainable trend caused by a lower demand considering current high level of prices?

On the international market, Japan bought about 57 000 t of milling wheat sourced from Australia. Taiwan is seeking 100 000 t of US milling wheat.

The IGC said that the next world wheat production could amount to 790 Mt vs. 773 Mt for the current crop. The European Commission has revised upward its estimation of wheat exports to third countries to 27 Mt vs. 26 Mt seen last month. The carry over stock is then revised down to 9.5 Mt vs. 9.9 Mt last month. Rapeseed imports are revised up to 6 Mt vs. 5.5 Mt estimated last month.

On oilseeds, the divergence between nearby deliveries and those of the future crop has widened. On the rapeseed, the May contract has earned some more ground while 2021’s deliveries retreated. Volatility remains high on veg oils.

This morning, the dollar is erasing a part of losses vs. euro recorded yesterday and is dealing at 1.2150. The dollar vs. rouble is dealing at 74.30. The crude oil is declining a bit below 63 $/b on the WTI. OPEC+ could decide to ease production quotas at next meeting following the surge in prices.

American market

Disappointing weekly export sales in the US have pushed prices to retreat significantly yesterday and funds took a part of their profits on long positions. Last week, 238 700 t of soybean, 599 100 t of corn and 182 600 t of wheat have been shipped. The export activity is therefore reducing but a confirmation of these figures will be needed next week to conclude to a lasting slowdown of the world demand.

On a weather point of view, few changes. Rainfalls are still delaying soybean harvest works in Brazil. However, production estimates remain around 133 Mt.

This morning, in preopening, the market is losing ground again. More profit takings should occur before the weekend.

Yesterday, funds were net sellers in 11 000 lots of corn, 15 000 lots of soybean and 5 500 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

Until yesterday, Ukraine has shipped 31.7 Mt of cereals from the start of the season. This is 7.8 Mt less than last year to date. So far, 13.6 Mt of wheat (-2.7 Mt), 4 Mt of barley (-0.03 Mt) and 13.6 Mt of corn (-5 Mt) have been exported.

On a monthly basis, wheat exports are stable and corn sales have gained a slight momentum. Barley supplies are now exhausted.

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