European market

The week ended Friday with the release of the USDA's monthly report. A publication considered particularly bearish for American corn, which prices have momentarily approached the limit of decline in Chicago. The bearish influence has spread to Euronext, which closes lower on all products.
The 2026-27 global stocks displayed in the October WASDE report have changed little in wheat and soybeans. On the contrary, they have made strong progress in corn under the impetus of the United States :
Wheat: 276.04 Mt vs 276.29 Mt last month
Soybeans: 124.28 Mt vs 124.02 Mt last month
Corn: 280.44 Mt vs 272.10 Mt last month
In wheat, the USDA has made little change in its production estimates for top exporting regions. The strongest increase is attributed to Canada, which gains 0.5 Mt over a month, at 36.5 Mt. Conversely, the most significant reduction concerns the European Union, with -0.8 Mt over one month, to 133.0 Mt. The animal consumption of wheat in the EU27 is also revised up by +1 Mt. So that the European wheat stock in June 2027 decreases to 11.7 Mt, against 13.5 Mt last month and 19 Mt estimated by the USDA in June 2026.
In corn, the USDA continues to reduce, month after month, its European production estimate, now estimated at 48 Mt against 50.6 Mt last month. However, this decrease is offset by a reduction in animal consumption of 2.2 Mt over one month, to 51.2 Mt.
In addition to Friday's WASDE report on grains, the commodity market will start this new week at the pace of geopolitics. The surprise purchase, during the weekend, of Russian diesel oil by the United States somewhat changes the cards. Even if the concomitant announcement by Donald Trump of an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine is struggling, to date, to materialize.
The wheat market will also be animated at the beginning of the week by the return of Algeria to purchases.

American market

The big surprise of last Friday's USDA report comes from American corn. The WASDE report has revised up the expected corn yield in the United States. Expected to decrease by at least 0.5 bu/acre over a month, the yield is finally posted at 181.2 bushels per acre, an upward revision of +2.7 bu/acre compared to September. This is also one of the strongest upward revisions ever observed for a month of October.
This translates into 6 Mt of additional American production in 2026-27, at 407.3 Mt, i.e. the 2nd best historical harvest of American corn behind last year's 430.9 Mt. The corn prices were down very sharply in Chicago on Friday night, with a close around -20 cents/bu after approaching -30 cents.
Soybeans fared better and managed to close slightly higher despite an upward revision of the US yield to 53.1 bu/acres against 52.8 bu/acres estimated in September. The 2026-27 soybean production in the United States is therefore expected by the USDA at a record level of 124.15 Mt. The increase in exports and crushing compared to the previous campaign, however, allows US soybean stocks to remain unchanged between 2025-26 and 2026-27, at 8.6 Mt.
Wheat followed corn lower Friday night on Chicago. It also suffers from an upward revision of the US carry-in stock to 20.14 Mt against 19.51 Mt last month, in connection with a downward revision of 0.7 Mt, to 20.4 Mt, exports.

Black Sea market

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