European market

The decline in oil prices, after Monday’s highs, is directly easing prices across other commodities. Agricultural commodities on Euronext, which had shown, although to very different degrees, a rebound momentum since last week, recorded a decline yesterday.

In parallel, the euro/dollar exchange rate is once again trading above 1.16. This situation is causing strong price adjustments, with cereal prices on Euronext falling by around 5 €/t compared with the previous day on the nearby maturities. In this highly volatile context, the OAIC finally purchased wheat yesterday under the tender launched at the beginning of the week, with optional origin.

As part of its adjustments to global cereal balance sheets, the USDA has revised the European Union’s export potential downward by 1 Mt, now at 30.5 Mt. This reduction in export outlets is nevertheless offset by the renewed strength of feed demand, allowing European stocks to remain at a level almost unchanged from the February outlook, now at 15.67 Mt, an increase of 34.3 % compared with the previous season.

In oilseeds, rapeseed prices are also declining, reflecting the downward adjustment in rapeseed oil prices observed yesterday. Canadian canola prices, after a high reached the previous day, also fell yesterday in Winnipeg, as did palm oil in Kuala Lumpur. The latter, after a strong rebound on Monday, experienced a sharp downward correction, thereby technically filling the recently opened gap.

American market

Faced with the military situation in the Middle East, traders remain above all focused on the evolution of oil prices. These recorded a sharp pullback during the session yesterday, before stabilizing above $86.50/b for WTI in New York and $91.50/b for Brent in London. As news and announcements unfold, prices are moving accordingly, showing again this morning a decline of around –2.50% for both products.

In this tense environment, cereal prices fell in Chicago, retracing the recent rebound. SRW wheat for May 2026 closed back below the $6.00/bu level that had recently been surpassed. In corn, prices fell moderately at the end of the day after a session marked by a sharp drop below $4.50/bu. The USDA released yesterday its new estimates for 2025/2026 ending stocks, maintaining the same levels as last month. Thus, the situation in the United States remains unchanged for wheat ending stocks, still reported at 25.34 Mt, an increase of +8.9% compared with the previous season. In corn, the status quo is also observed, with no change from the previous month, with U.S. stocks expected at 54.02 Mt, compared with 39.40 Mt last year.

Despite a decline in vegetable oil prices, soybean seed and meal prices posted a slight increase yesterday, after a session also marked by wide fluctuations. The May 2026 soybean contract thus managed to remain above $12/bu. The unchanged figures released by the USDA as part of its monthly estimates maintain export projections at 42.86 Mt, as well as ending stocks at 9.52 Mt, still up +7.7% compared with last year.

Black Sea market

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