European market

The geopolitical uncertainty shaking the world, particularly in the energy sector, was highlighted at the end of last week. This serves as a reminder to all market operators, including investment funds, that a significant number of unknowns continue to hover over the markets. However, despite this context, the fundamentals of the grain market quickly regained the upper hand, pushing wheat on Euronext to flirt once again with the symbolic 200 €/t mark.

European wheat still suffers from a lack of competitiveness on the international stage and must contend with the large harvest expected in the Black Sea region. In France, agricultural work has begun for barley, with an acceleration expected in the coming days due to weather forecasts. The initial feedback from the field remains too limited to allow for a nationwide extrapolation, but the coming days should bring more clarity.

Internationally, recent purchases by Tunisia and Morocco have inspired Algeria, which has launched a new tender through OAIC for shipments in early August.

In Canada, water deficits in some regions, combined with improving trade relations with China, are driving canola prices higher. In Winnipeg, canola is approaching 740 CAD/t for the November contract, reaching its highest level since September 2023.

American market

The USDA report was quickly absorbed due to minimal adjustments, and market operators continue to focus on field conditions. Yesterday, the publication of crop conditions once again influenced the markets:

• Winter wheat: 52 % rated good to excellent, down from 54 % last week

• Spring wheat: 57 % rated good to excellent, up from 53 % last week

• Corn: 72 % rated good to excellent, up from 71 % last week

• Soybeans: 66 % rated good to excellent, down from 68 % last week

Additionally, winter wheat harvest progress increased by 6 points, reaching 10 %—still far from the 25 % recorded at the same time last year, but not yet causing major concerns.

While weather conditions remain favorable, attention will turn to the skies in the coming weeks as corn reaches the crucial flowering stage. This decisive phase will help confirm yield potential and, consequently, the record production forecasted for the country this year.

In Brazil, corn harvesting continues, with nearly 10 % of the Safrinha crop already harvested, exerting downward pressure on international prices.

Black Sea market

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