European market
Cereal prices were buoyed yesterday by the firmness of US prices in the face of wheat and corn crop rotation forecasts, and by the European Commission's production estimates for soft wheat for the new marketing year. The Commission is expecting soft wheat production to reach 120.8 million tons, a fall of around 4% on last year. This fall is explained by the reductions in area also reported in Europe due to sowing conditions last autumn. The large stocks at the end of the campaign, reported by the Commission to be close to 20 million tons, will offset some of this fall in production.
As a result, prices rose on Euronext for both old and new crop, although they did not reach the recent highs of last week, particularly for the May 2024 deadline. Corn prices also rose in the wake of soft wheat. With the spring weather market set to drive prices, some importing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, are repositioning themselves to buy. The GFSA has launched a tender for the purchase of 595,000 t of soft wheat for delivery between mid-June and mid-July.
Unlike cereals, the rapeseed market did not enjoy the same upward momentum, closing the week down and falling back below €440/t on the May 2024 maturity on Euronext. The expected fall in potential 2024/25 production in Europe was confirmed for rapeseed by the European Commission's estimate yesterday. The volume now expected is 19.5 Mt, just 1.5% down on last year.
Over the Easter weekend, the Euronext market will be closed on Friday and Monday. Activity on the physical markets this weekend is already expected to be limited.
American market
The final session of the week, which was cut short due to the Good Friday bank holiday on Friday, saw a wide range of variations. The USDA released its quarterly stocks figures and acreage forecasts yesterday. The usual Thursday figures for weekly export sales were also released.
In terms of stocks, the figures posted were within the range of expectations for corn and soybean. In wheat, on the other hand, the volume announced was slightly higher than estimated, at 30 Mt on March 1. However, this was quickly swept aside by estimates of US corn acreage. The USDA has announced a sharp drop in the area sown to corn for the 2024/25 season. With 90.04 million acres sown, the crop area is down 4.87% on last year. This level came as a surprise to traders, who were expecting a much smaller decline. Corn prices rebounded sharply for both old and new crops. In a single session, prices retraced the decline of the last few days, marking a new high for a month and a half. This firmness also supported wheat prices in Chicago, which ended the session higher. The area sown to all types of wheat is also down, by -4.19%, as a direct result of the drop in winter wheat sowings.