European market
After the grain price increase observed since the beginning of the week, wheat prices decreased yesterday, both in the physical market—old and new crops—and on the Euronext futures market. The September 2025 contract has fallen back below the 210 €/t level, dragging subsequent contracts down with it. The brief strengthening of the dollar against the euro, below 1.13, failed to provide any price support.
The IGC figures for the 2024/25 season show an upward adjustment in global wheat ending stocks compared to the previous month, and estimated stocks held by major exporters are at 64mn t versus 63mn t last month. For the new harvest, the IGC also revised its stock estimate upwards, projecting 65mn t despite an expected +10mn t increase in exports compared to the current campaign.
Old crop corn prices showed an upward trend yesterday, adjusting after sharper price increases in other grains over recent days. June 2025, August 2025, and even November 2025 contracts are now at parity above 207 €/t, closing on the highest levels for a month. The IGC has revised its estimate of global corn stocks downward by 1mn t to 275mn t. For the new crop, production potential remains above 1.27 billion t, pushing the projected ending stocks for the 2024/25 campaign higher to 275mn t despite expected consumption growth.
In the oilseed sector, despite a slight decrease in crude oil prices compared to the previous day, rapeseed prices rose yesterday. They recovered from the prior day's decline, once again approaching the 490 €/t level for the August 2025 Euronext contract.
American market
The increase in weekly export sales of U.S. wheat did not contribute to firmer prices yesterday. Despite total transactions exceeding 880,000 t for the week, the strong sales momentum of recent weeks remains intact. Cumulatively, the pace of new crop sales is well ahead of typical volumes for this time of year. U.S. wheat continues to benefit from the depreciation of the dollar, a key factor in its competitiveness. However, Chicago prices did not react positively to this trend, with the July 2025 contract closing below 4.45 $/bu, retreating after hitting one-month highs the previous day.
In corn, prices are attempting to stabilize following recent rebounds. The nearby contract edged higher, supported by export sales that again exceeded 1 Mt this week, though slightly below the record levels of the past two weeks. For the new crop, the December 2025 CME contract traded slightly lower compared to the previous day, signaling a slowdown in the upward price momentum seen since the beginning of the week.
Soybean markets remain volatile, with daily price movements showing significant swings. Weekly export sales reported by the USDA showed little change from the previous week. Nonetheless, September 2025 prices rebounded above 10.45 $/bu.
This final trading session of the week could prompt further position adjustments ahead of the long holiday weekend in the U.S. due to Memorial Day celebrations. The Chicago Board of Trade will be closed on Monday.
Black Sea market
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