European market
With no escalation in tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices are easing. The price of a barrel of crude oil fell back below $83 in New York, to its lowest level since April 1, dragging down all commodities in its wake. Grains have not been spared. The oilseeds sector in particular is suffering the most. Especially since palm oil is suffering from severe profit-taking following a 22% surge in February-March in Kuala Lumpur. In this context, rapeseed on Euronext closed down €4.75/t, falling back below €450/t for May 2024.
The situation is more mixed for grains, with wheat closing between -0.5 and -1.75 €/t depending on the expiry date and corn between -0.25 and +0.50 €/t.
After the persistent excess humidity in many places, it is now the return of frost that is worrying producers in an area stretching from Poland to eastern France. In Russia, on the other hand, there are concerns about excessive temperatures in the south of the country.
Although Argentina is currently enjoying good rainfall, the Buenos Aires stock exchange is concerned that the wheat crop to be sown in the country in the near future will not progress. The exchange is expecting 5.9mn ha of wheat to be sown, i.e. below the five-year average, due to fears of a return of La Niña and drought among local producers.
FranceAgriMer yesterday published its new carryover stock forecasts for the 2023-24 marketing year:
Soft wheat: 3.751mn t vs 3.742mn t last month and 2.54mn t last year
Barley: 1.664mn t vs 1.750mn t last month and 1.013mn t last year
Corn: 2.336mn t vs 2.434mn t last month and 1.654mn t last year
American market
Soybean prices are holding up well despite the current easing in the oilseed complex. Meal prices remain relatively firm. The current heavy rains are likely to delay the harvesting of soybeans in Argentina and degrade its quality, which is keeping the soybean meal market alert, given the importance of this country to its production.
In the United States, as always in April, the corn market is influenced by sowing conditions. The return to favourable field conditions is weighing on corn prices in Chicago. However, the fall in prices was contained by the renewed uncertainty over the level of the Argentine harvest due to spiroplasma.
Wheat, meanwhile, fell back in the face of competition from Black Sea origins towards the end of the season, and with the return of rain forecasts for the southern US Great Plains.
Funds were selling corn and wheat in Chicago last night, while buying soybeans.
Black Sea market
Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.
