European market
Fundamentals are slowly trying to take back control of the markets. Although attention remains focused on the Middle East, fatigue is beginning to set in regarding the U.S. president’s policy flip‑flops. Prices are no longer reacting with the same intensity to announcements and are now trying to take a step back. The various upcoming reports should bring new elements regarding the grain markets in the coming weeks, as illustrated by the one published yesterday by the USDA.
Among the signals, the dollar index has started to correct, dipping back below the 100 threshold. In this context, the euro/dollar pair has climbed back above 1.15, even approaching 1.16. This evolution does not favour European origins, which are already struggling to position themselves on the export scene.
On the export side, note Tunisia’s purchase of 100 000 t of wheat, at prices ranging from 274.73 $/t to 275.49 $/t.
In today’s turbulent environment, vegetable oils have regained some momentum. The sharp rise in U.S. soybean oil in recent months is notable, as is the rebound in palm oil in March. The reason: yesterday’s announcement by the Indonesian government that B50 will come into force on 1 July 2026. This decision is part of a plan launched several years ago to support the national sector and reduce dependency on fossil fuels, whose prices have risen sharply recently. In Argentina, the authorities also implemented temporary measures allowing higher biodiesel blending mandates in order to respond to the current energy crisis.
These elements are likely to support certain agricultural sectors in the countries concerned.
American market
Yesterday was marked by the release of the USDA’s quarterly report on stocks, but also on acreage. With few surprises regarding current availabilities, attention was firmly focused on the field, especially for corn. As geopolitics have shaken fertilizer prices, operators were expecting a drop in planted area. This is indeed the case compared to last year, but the -3.5 million acre decline remains smaller than anticipated. While consensus was calling for 94.4 million acres of corn, the USDA published a figure of 95.3 million acres. Based on a survey conducted in early March, this number could change over the coming months.
To compensate, soybean acreage is gaining +3.5 million acres compared to last year, reaching 84.7 million acres, which remains at the lower end of expectations. Finally, for wheat, the structural decline in acreage continues, with 43.8 million acres announced for all wheat combined, a further -1.6 million acre drop from the previous year.
From now on, attention will turn to fieldwork, as weather remains broadly dry across much of the United States, allowing for rapid planting progress. However, part of the wheat crop remains at risk, as highlighted by the sharp deterioration in crop conditions at the beginning of the week.
Black Sea market
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