European market
After more than 40 days of budget paralysis, Donald Trump signed the bill ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history. This decision comes as a breath of fresh air for many American operators, who had been helplessly witnessing the cost of this deadlock. For grain markets, this turnaround will restore access to official publications, especially those related to the country’s export dynamics, at a time when speculation is running high following the China-US trade agreement.
On the ground, harvesting continues in Argentina and confirms an exceptional situation. Week after week, analysts are revising their production estimates upward. According to the Rosario Board of Trade, the 2025 crop should reach around 24.5 mnt, which would simply be a record.
In France, Agreste reports a drop in corn production, estimated at 13.4 mnt compared to 13.7 mnt last month and 14.6 mnt in 2024. The coming months should allow the ministry to further adjust this figure. As for sunflower, the harvest would yield 1.44 mnt of seeds, down 3 % from last year.
On the international stage, Algeria’s purchase is accompanied by Tunisia’s return, which is launching a tender for around 125,000 t of soft wheat.
On the oilseed side, palm oil continues its correction and is approaching, in Kuala Lumpur, the support zone of 4,000 ringgits/t. Following an MPOB report highlighting heavy stocks, the start of B50 testing in Indonesia could bring a bit of hope back to some operators.
American market
The end of the shutdown marks the return of US publications, shedding light on the pace of American exports as well as global balance sheets. The USDA had anticipated this by announcing the release of a report this Friday, November 14, a move welcomed by all market operators. Particular attention will be paid to U.S. corn production. While the U.S. government had forecast 427 mnt in its latest report, analysts expect a downward revision, closer to 420 mnt. Argus Media, for its part, remains near 415 mnt, with yields estimated at around 181.5 bu/acre.
In Chicago, soybeans continue to benefit from the China-U.S. agreement and have reached their highest level in 17 months, exceeding 11.35 $/bu on the January contract. The Chinese purchases announced in recent weeks provide arguments for financial operators to cover short positions, though this should not overshadow the current situation. In fact, in the US, the USDA’s latest publication projected production at 117 mnt, a substantial volume. U.S. stocks are estimated by operators at around 8.3 mnt.
Before the USDA, CONAB will publish its updated balance sheet, a key point given Brazil’s major role in the global equilibrium.
Black Sea market
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