European market

Wheat futures for September 2025 contract recorded a third consecutive session of decline, approaching the level of 195 €/t. Corn is also under pressure, dropping by 2.75 €/t to 194.50 €/t for the November contract. While following the general trend of the sector, corn faces a period of uncertainty.

First and foremost, weather remains a major concern, especially in Eastern Europe where water shortages are particularly severe. In France, recent rainfall has been helpful, but some of the damage is already irreversible. According to Céré’Obs, 69 % of corn crops in France are rated as good to excellent, a drop of 3 points from the previous week. Another twist comes from the trade war between the European Union and the United States. After the EU announced last week its intention to impose tariffs on corn, ethanol, biodiesel, and soybeans if no agreement was reached by August 1, a reversal occurred over the weekend following a discussion between Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump. Both parties ultimately agreed on imposing tariffs at a rate of 15 %. This compromise remains well below the initial threat of 30 % once made by the White House, but also moves away from the 'zero for zero' target defended by the European Commission.

As for harvests, work is progressing in France, with 86 % of the wheat now harvested. The return of milder weather should allow for a quick finish to operations. For spring barley, the harvest has reached 89 %, with good yield results despite some variability.

The upcoming end of the August rapeseed contract will give the market a chance to realign with longer-term contracts. The product's seasonality during winter is often associated with firmness, and for the November contract, prices are hovering around 485 €/t. The solid French harvest contrasts with the declining potential in Ukraine at the end of the cycle, which should reduce exportable volumes.

American market

U.S. prices continue to hover around their support levels and remain under pressure, mainly due to strong production prospects for corn and soybeans. These volumes will add to those already produced in Brazil and Argentina, ensuring comfortable supply for international buyers. As a result, the outlook appears to be surplus, and the period of climatic risk seems increasingly behind the operators.

Argentina has just drastically reduced its export taxes:

• Corn: from 12 % to 9 %

• Soybeans: from 33 % to 26 %

• Wheat: unchanged at 9.5 %

Meanwhile, markets must contend with retaliatory measures announced by some countries targeted by Donald Trump's decisions. Trade flows remain uncertain, though operators are cautiously making massive purchases from the United States. In addition to strong export figures from last week, exceptional sales have been recorded: over 100,000 t of corn to Mexico, 140,000 t to South Korea, and more than 140,000 t of soybeans also to Mexico.

Highly competitive, U.S. wheat offers could spark interest, but current information flow isn’t yet working in their favor.

Black Sea market

The new CME CVB wheat contract continues to gain momentum, with open interest now standing at 3,170 contracts. Short-term uncertainties regarding Russian supply and a strong Romanian harvest are prompting position adjustments. The December 2025 contract is currently trading at 247 $/t.

Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.