Cereals markets are soaring after Russian comments suggesting new restrictive export measures in the event of a further rise in world prices. Although rumours of the introduction of quotas were already circulating in the market, this only confirms the tension of the S&D balances, particularly for wheat. On top of that, there are quality concerns about the future Australian crop with heavy rainfall near the end of the cycle. These elements are adding to the bullish USDA report of Tuesday. Finally, the last positive element this morning, mainly for Euronext, is the strength of the dollar against the euro, making European origins more competitive on the international scene.
On the fertiliser side, nitrogen prices remain very high and the threat from Belarus of a gas embargo on Europe is provoking a further jump in energy prices.
On the international scene, South Korea bought 65,000 tonnes of maize from southern hemisphere origins. Japan bought nearly 160,000 tonnes of milling wheat from usual providers, the USA, Canada and Australia.
Corn prices are rising in the wake of wheat, but to a lesser extent. The price differential between wheat and corn remains very high, encouraging livestock feed manufacturers to incorporate more corn into their formulations. In Brazil, favourable weather conditions are prompting the Conab to forecast the country's next production at 116.7 Mt.
Rapeseed is continuing to rise and is dealing above the psychological threshold of €700/t on Euronext's front deliveries in the wake of palm and soybean.
The dollar climbed sharply in response to the latest US inflation figures, raising fears of a quicker than expected rate's hike on the other side of the Atlantic. The US currency is trading at 1.1440 this morning against the euro and 71.70 against the rouble. Oil is slightly lower at 80.90 usd/barrel.
Prices in Chicago rose again yesterday in the wake of Tuesday's USDA report, but also due to bullish news from Russia and Australia.
In China, corn prices are up again in a context of delayed harvesting due to rainfall and rising energy costs for drying the grains. In addition, logistics problems have been particularly acute recently.
In Chicago, wheat prices are back to their highest levels since 2012.
Soybean is still rising against a backdrop of USDA's lower-than-expected yields. This is despite the fact that the next Brazilian crop is expected to reach 140-145 Mt.
Yesterday, funds were net buyers in 2,500 lots of corn, 2,000 lots of soybeans and 6,500 lots of wheat.
Black Sea market
The Black Sea region is in the news at the moment with Russian talk of possible new measures to curb grain price inflation, either by imposing new taxes or by introducing export quotas early next year, or a combination of the two.
Wheat prices in Ukraine are dealing at their highest since 2013, following the rise of international prices. Corn prices are also experiencing a further increase due to logistical problems in the country.