Analysis 16/05/2018

European market

Stability on the markets yesterday since price evolution were mostly following currencies. While the session was in the red in the mid-afternoon on Chicago, Paris resisted in view of the decline of the euro which is testing the support area of 1.18 against the dollar.

We note a decline in prices of wheat Black Sea in new season, with trades made at 196 usd / t in fob against 202 usd / t again last week.

We also can note a decline in prices for the Black Sea wheat for the new campaign. Indeed, trades were registered at 196 $/t FOB against 202 $/t last week.

On the international scene, Egypt bought 60 000 t of wheat from Ukraine for expected loadings between the 15th and 25th June at a price of 219.90 USD/fob. Tunisia has also purchased 100 000 t of wheat and 75 000 t of feed barley. Shipments will be between July 10th and August 20th and therefore the 2018 harvest.

According to the German statistics institute, the area of winter wheat for 2018 is down 5.6% compared to last year and the one in rapeseed should decrease by 3.4% following a rainy autumn which made plantings difficult. Corn plantings are therefore revised upwards. In France, corn acreages should remain unchanged from last year according to the Ministry of Agriculture (1.38 million hectares). Sugar beet surfaces will be down 0.7% compared to last year, but 16.3% higher than the 5-year average, a consequence of the end of quotas.

Rapeseed prices were unchanged yesterday, underpinned by oil and palm oil in particular. Crop conditions in France are raising concerns in many regions since flowering remains very heterogeneous.

American market

After a start of the session in the red, most of the commodities closed unchanged or slightly upwards.

Corn found support with awaited rainy conditions which could delay sowings that are currently on the way. To last Sunday, they were finished at 62 %.

Soybean prices eased slightly in view of the discussions between China and the US. Indeed, China needs to source their soybean from the US in order to fulfill their Import needs estimated at around 100 Mt each year.

Informa displayed an acreage estimation in the US at 89 million acres in corn against 88 million displayed by the USDA and 89.4 million acres in soybean against 89 million by the USDA.

Yesterday, funds were net buyers in 12 500 lots of corn and 2 500 lots of wheat. They were net sellers in 1 500 lots of soybean.

Black Sea market

Mr. Putin himself came yesterday to inaugurate the 19-kilometer Kerch Bridge that connects the Taman Peninsula in southern Russia to the Ukrainian Kerch peninsula in Crimea. It took three years and three billion dollars, following the annexation of Crimea by Moscow in spring 2014, to bring out the longest bridge in Europe. Traffic will be open today. However, it will be necessary to wait until the end of 2019 to observe rail freight. The building of course provides for the passage of barges across the strait connecting the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. Every year, more than 10Mt of Russian cereals pass through this strait. The goods loaded in the ports of Rostov, Taganrog or Yeysk on barges of 5,000 tons cross the bridge before being destined for Turkey for example or to be transferred on larger capacity boats off the terminal KAVKAZ.