Analysis 21/12/2017

European market

Rapeseed is still receiving a lot of traders’ attention in this end of year, prices tumbled again yesterday following veg oils’ trend. Producers who followed Agritel’s strategy are fully hedged on this product since several weeks.

Wheat and corn on Euronext are penalized by the rise of the euro, quoting 1.1870 this morning vs dollar. At the same time, wheat prices in Chicago are supported by the possible consequences of the cold snap in US winter wheat areas.

French farmers will pay attention to the conclusions of the Food Conference aimed to reshape the sector’s economic model in France.

On the international stage, Jordan bought 50 000 t of hard wheat, optional origin. Turkey on its side bought 132 000 t of corn and 120 000 t of barley probably sourced from Black Sea countries.

Business on physical markets is slowing down by this end of year marked by many elevators’ General Assemblies.

American market

The wheat market is benefitting from funds’ short covering in a context of climatic fears due to the arrival of a cold snap on US plains in next days. This episode could impact winter wheat of hard quality.

Soybean remains under the pressure of the weakness of veg oils, especially in Malaysia. At the same time, rains in South America are suggesting a possible record harvest in these countries.

Corn prices are in small evolution, most of fundamentals are now priced in the market.

Funds were net sellers in 5 000 lots of soybean and net buyers in 4 500 lots of corn and 2 500 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

For the first time in four years, the Russian winter crop acreage will not increase and will mark a pause caused by too wet conditions recorded in the Center and Volga regions. However, the anticipated decline is small, and the acreage should exceed 17 Mha. As this drop is only due to the result of Volga’s region, a misinterpretation is possible. Crop conditions are good so far as related by our team who visited Russian plains in a tour organized by the end of last month as part of the European Agritel Tour program. The Russian Ag Minister should show optimism in its first crop ratings. The Russian potential of winter wheat production remains high again.