Analysis 28/05/2026

European market

The current fluctuations in crude oil prices and in currencies capture traders' attention and favour positional adjustments. Crude oil prices are up this morning above $95/b on Brent and above $90 /b in New York on the WTI contract, in direct connection with the news on the evolution of the military situation around the Strait of Hormuz. The euro, which has been moving for 2 weeks in a narrow range, returns to test the level of 1.16 against the dollar, regaining its recent lows.
Yesterday's session was marked by the decline in wheat prices on Euronext, down at the end of the day by around -4 €/t on the front contracts. The September contract is back to around €210/t, in parallel with the downward movement of prices in the USA and the expected decreases in temperatures.
On Euronext corn, the approach of the closing of the June 2026 contract brings a big movement of variation, movement which does not extend to the following contracts. The new harvest prices mark, like wheat, a decline, by -2 €/t on the November 2026 contract at the end of the day.
The oilseed market is still finding support thanks to the firmness of crude oil prices at the moment. The August 2026 contract on Euronext returns to above €525/t, erasing most of the downward movement observed at the beginning of the week. Prices are also rising in Canada, returning to recent highs, or even trading at new highs, like the November 2026 contract this morning above $770 cad/t.

American market

Grain prices showed a decline yesterday in Chicago. Wheat prices, both for HRW and SRW contracts, have both accentuated the downward movement and are following successive pullback sessions. For the July 2026 contract, the HRW returns to trading close to its lowest level for a month by closing below $6.70/bu. The prices of the SRW contract for the July contract, meanwhile, fall back below $6.25/bu and erase the entire upward movement observed during the week of the USDA's monthly report last May. The beginning of the winter wheat harvests reinforces for the moment the announced disappointment.
A new decline is also observed in corn in the USA, both in the old harvest and in the new campaign. The July 2026 contract in Chicago was down yesterday by -5 cents/bu, returning to its lowest levels since mid-April below $4.55/bu. In the new harvest, the plantings are progressing well, pushing the December 2026 contract back below the level of $4.80/bu, at the lowest for more than a month.
On the other hand, the soybean oil market is still registering a certain firmness. The upcoming July contract is back above c$75/lb, approaching the recent highest levels. The movement is similar on the December contract, where soybean oil on the CME is again trading above c$70/lb, approaching important technical points. This situation brings a little support to soybean prices, which were finally evolving little yesterday after several consecutive sessions of decline.

Black Sea market

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