Analysis 02/07/2026

European market

The wheat harvest is gradually progressing north and east of Paris while it is in full swing south of the Seine. The echoes of yields are very uneven.  The price rebound observed yesterday mainly on Euronext's wheat and rapeseed contracts is primarily linked to a fall of the euro/dollar and to the firmness observed on the Chicago side.
However, the price increase is limited in a context of falling prices observed on fob Black Sea wheat and rapeseed oil.
In the Black Sea, where the harvests are late this year, the early winter barley harvests take place with echoes of good yields overall.
Corn meanwhile closes in scattered order on Euronext from -1.75 €/t in August 2026 contract to +0.75 €/t in November 2026. It must be said that the values reached both with regard to Euronext wheat and corn on Chicago open the way to multiple arbitrations. However, concern remains acute about the future production as a new heat wave is in forecast in France and the south of Europe from this weekend.

American market

The firmness fueled by the publication of the USDA report of June 30 on US quarterly crops and stocks continued yesterday in Chicago.
The wheat market is supported by the display of a 2026-27 area in sharp decline of -6% over one year to 17.3 million hectares and well below expectations which were almost 0.5 Mha higher before the publication of the report.
Corn is progressing more moderately. The market has the support of wheat and especially that of a much weaker US quarterly stock than expected. But it remains held back in its rebound by the publication of planted area 2026-27 up since the March report and above expectations at 95.343 million acres.
Soybeans are progressing in sympathy with wheat and corn while its sown area in 2026-27 in the USA was increased Tuesday evening by 665,000 acres compared to March 30 to 85.36 million acres.

Black Sea market

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