Analysis 16/10/2026

European market

The firmness of the last few days in the context of geopolitical tensions, the weakness of the euro or even renewed demand gives way to weekend profit-taking on all products on Euronext.
It must be said that important areas of resistance have been reached, stimulating the strong comeback of sellers. Euronext wheat December 2026 approached €250/t, corn November 2026 was close to €305/t and rapeseed February 2027 came up close to €560/t the day before.
This correction also comes in the context of a rise in the euro/dollar to 1.1225. The fears of recent days on the technology and artificial intelligence sector in the USA weigh on investors' appetite for the dollar.
The rapeseed market is also disrupted in a context of logistical difficulties because of the low waters of the Rhine. The November 2026 contract, which is approaching its expiration date, decreases below €500/t at the close for the first time in 6 months.

American market

Although supported by a weakening of the Dollar Index, prices closed lower yesterday on most products in Chicago, with funds for sale in the background. Only soybean oil has benefited from a buying interest from financial operators.
Soybeans, on the other hand, showed the largest decline against a background of harvest pressure. As soon as the weather permits, American farmers focus their efforts on the soybean harvest, corn can afford to wait more.
These first-hand sales have gained the upper hand despite a persistence of Chinese purchases. The USDA announced yesterday the exceptional sale of 330,000 t of American soybean to China and 283,450 t to an unknown destination.
The soybean market was also disappointed by the NOPA's crushing figure in the United States for the month of September, which fell to 196.3 million bushels, a 13-month low.

Black Sea market

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