European market
Although rising yesterday, the euro dollar remains below 1.18 with a low point treated at 1.1765, which offers some support for European grain prices. Crude oil continues to trade around $64 per barrel in New York, against the backdrop of uncertainties around Iran, i.e. close to its highs of the last six months.
In such a context, the wheat market remains supported while remaining hesitant. Prices have been moving since the beginning of the week in a wide range of about 192 to 195 € /t on the March 2026 contract, without finding a real direction. The same applies to the range of 191 to 193 € /t on May 2026. It must be said that if several support elements remain present behind this price level, which corresponds to the highest recorded for two and a half months, a major brake remains, that of export competitiveness against the Black Sea or Argentine origins. Corn prices are not changing much on Euronext and now remain lower than wheat prices.
Unlike grains, rapeseed is supported. The bullish momentum of the previous day continued yesterday. The May 2026 contract gains €3/t to peak at €485.75/t, which is a closing high since last July 30th. Rapeseed benefits, like other oilseeds, from the enthusiasm created by Donald Trump's latest statement. By evoking possible sales of 20 Mt of US soybeans to China this campaign, soybeans in Chicago have gained 4.35% over the last two sessions. Canola on the front contract in Winnipeg increased by 2.5% t over the same period. The Euronext rapeseed, with a maximum increase of 2.2% over two days, is following the movement.
American market
As the day before, soybeans were in the focus yesterday on the Chicago market. The market returned to test its highs of the previous day with a noticeable gain of +4.35% over the last two sessions following the new US sales target to China of 20 Mt mentioned by Donald Trump. This figure is widely debated among operators and analysts, but the market reaction shows that it is nevertheless considered.
In its momentum, soybeans are driving wheat and corn higher in Chicago with more reserves on the latter two. It must be said that for the past two sessions, funds have been massively present for purchases, first of all of soybeans but also of grains. The sudden drop in US stock indices and in particular in the leaders of the "tech" could indeed restore an appetite for the basic values that are agricultural commodities.
While waiting for the publication of the Wasde report on Tuesday, February 10, operators were able to discuss yesterday the latest weekly US export sales figures published by the USDA for the 2025/26:
Wheat 374 000 t
Corn 1.04 Mt
Soybeans 437,000 t.
All of these figures are down compared to the previous two weeks and are just back in the average to date.
Black Sea market
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