Analysis 03/09/2026

European market

With no known prospect of improvement in the situation with grain exports from Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea ports, prices marked a new increase yesterday in grains. In this uncertain context and status quo on the current lockdown, prices show a high amplitude of variation during the session. Thus, in wheat on Euronext yesterday, after registering a new contract high above €259/t, the December 2026 contract displayed an amplitude of €10/t between its highest and lowest levels traded during the session, before finally closing up €3.25/t compared to the previous day.
In corn, the decline in production in France and Europe is pushing buyers, and in particular livestock feed manufacturers, to review their volumes as well as their sources of supply. The European Federation of compound feed manufacturers (FEFAC) also estimates that additional volumes, beyond the current estimates of corn imports recently communicated by the European Commission, will be necessary in view of the situation of the grain campaign. Corn prices rose yesterday and are also posting a new high on Euronext for the 2026 harvest. Thus, the November2026 contract is now trading above €270/t, having even reached €279.50/t during the session before falling slightly.
After the rebound of the previous day, which pushed prices to their highest levels in six weeks, rapeseed prices marked a slight decline, also like canola prices. The November 2026 contract on Euronext is nevertheless still displayed above €550/t. European operators are following the evolution of vegetable oil prices with interest.

American market

Crude oil prices mark an attempt to stabilize after the recent increase despite a still complex situation between Iran and the United States. The grain prices in Chicago are also showing a slight decline despite tensions in Black Sea basin.
However, corn and wheat prices in Chicago recorded new highs on their respective contracts during the day, before finally recording a slight decline in closing compared to the previous day. In corn, the December 2026 contract approached the technical level of $5.50/bu before some profit-taking. The situation is similar in wheat, where the December 2026 contract is back above $7.90/bu in session before finally closing below $7.75/bu.
In soybeans, prices also experienced a similar situation, registering a new contract high for the November 2026 contract, which traded above $13.20/bu before finally closing at $13.00/bu, down from the previous day. However, American exporters remain optimistic about the new exceptional sales reported yesterday by the USDA to China, for a volume of 202,000 t for the 2026-27 season. The seed market was penalized by the decline in oil prices, which, after the previous day's rebound, fall back below c$71/lb, filling the recently opened gap in the process.

Black Sea market

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