European market
The prospect of an agreement between the United States and China gives new dynamism to agricultural commodity prices. Buoyed by Chicago prices, and in particular by soybeans, the various markets started the session up. It is necessary to go back two months to find a closing of Euronext wheat, December contract, above €193/t. Corn, March contract, marked an increase of + €3/t, reaching €187.50/t. Finally, rapeseed, February 2026 contract, approached the level of €480/t.
This enthusiasm around a possible agreement should not, however, make us forget the ample global supplies. New elements are rare, and the weather conditions confirm the good yield prospects in the Southern Hemisphere. From Australia to Argentina, operators remain generally optimistic about the 2025-26 productions.
In Argentina the peso is soaring while the party of the current president, Javier Milei, had more than 40% of the votes during the mid-term legislative elections. This currency game should be monitored, both for the competitiveness of the different origins and for the profitability of local producers. Note that Argentine wheat could compete with French wheat in certain destinations, such as Morocco, this year.
In the Northern Hemisphere, field work is progressing rapidly, especially in Western Europe. In Russia, almost 15.12mn ha have been planted, which is a lower level than in recent years at the same time.
American market
On Sunday, Beijing and Washington announced that they had managed to define the framework for a trade treaty, following discussions on the sidelines of the Kuala Lumpur summit. The two presidents must now meet this Thursday in Seoul in order to seal an agreement likely to upset the balances on the international scene.
Losing speed since the beginning of the campaign, soybean exports should be particularly impacted by the outcome of this "trade deal". Although South American origins retain a competitive advantage for the moment, US operators could reposition themselves in the coming weeks to revive their exports. It didn't take much more to push January soybeans up over the symbolic $10.9/bu zone in Chicago, which is a high for more than a year.
On the fields, in Brazil, soybean plantings reached 36%, a level comparable to that of last year. The work is progressing at a good pace, as evidenced by the 60% of areas already planted in Mato Grosso.
For the past week, the US export inspections are as follows:
Corn: 1.18 Mt, in line with expectations
Soybeans: 1.06 Mt, in line with expectations
Wheat: 259,000 t, below expectations.
Black Sea market
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