Analysis 18/11/2025

European market

The week starts with a new wave of enthusiasm on the grain market in Chicago. China's buying interest in US soybeans and wheat quickly woke up prices on CME yesterday. This is despite a sharp decline in all products on Friday evening after the publication of the USDA report.
Out of sympathy, the prices of wheat, corn and rapeseed on Euronext followed the bullish momentum observed in the US. EU prices are also benefiting from a decrease in the euro/dollar which returns below 1.1600 after peaking at 1.1650 at the end of last week.
From a technical point of view, Euronext wheat December 2025 contract holds well its support zone of 188-190 €/t, while corn March 2025 contract is more in line with a short-term bullish channel. The most dynamic product remaining rapeseed, the only one to show a new high since last summer with a close yesterday at 484.75 €/t for February 2026.

American market

The doubts about the trade agreement between the United States and China began to seize the market after a downward movement at the end of last week but a new surge in prices occurred in Chicago. From the opening yesterday, the rumors of Chinese purchases were back. Several soybean boats have been confirmed, some wheat business would also be under discussion. Corn does not seem to be at the heart of the Chinese appetite to date. However, it is benefiting from the upward momentum of other products.
Indeed, wheat and soybeans were up sharply yesterday. December 2025 wheat contract returns to test, as last week, the resistance zone of $5.50/bu, while January 2026 soybeans contract marked a new high for many months.
Soybeans are all the more on the rise as crushing is very dynamic in the United States. The figures of the NOPA published yesterday indicate a crushing by its members of 6.2 Mt of soybeans last month, which is well above expectations and a record for all months combined.
The corn is supported by the very good weekly loading figures: 2,054 Mt of US corn were loaded on the week ending November 13, the largest weekly volume for 4 and a half years.

Black Sea market

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