Analysis 03/02/2026

European market

The correction movement on the euro-dollar parity, observed since the end of last week, favours the return below the level of 1.1850. During the day, yesterday afternoon, the parity even fell back below the level of 1.1800 before recovering. This downward movement of the euro logically offers support to the prices of EU raw materials. Grain prices, which showed a strong decline during the day on Euronext, finally closed only slightly lower, down both in corn and wheat by -0.75 €/t compared to the previous session on the front contract.
Faced with the significant availability at the beginning of the second half of the campaign, with the harvest volumes from the Southern hemisphere being added to those from the Northern hemisphere, the results of the current tenders and the monitoring of the export activity will remain essential. Some importing countries are positioning themselves, like Jordan, which is currently looking for soft wheat. Algeria is also positioning itself for a tender for feed barley. The price spread between the West European origin and the Black Sea origins is being followed with the greatest interest.
In oilseeds, the amplitude of variation during the session was large. The May 2026 contract was trading between 468.50 and 477.50 € / t to finally close the session slightly up. Despite everything, operators remain vigilant in the face of the various imported oils prices variation. The price of palm oil, in Kuala Lumpur, has been experiencing a downward movement since the end of last week and is reopening the week, after yesterday's public holiday, down this morning.

American market

The reopening of the Chicago market, at the beginning of the week, was marked by a strong decline yesterday. Wheat and corn prices have shown a decrease in the wake of the marked decline in the other raw materials, including crude oil. The latter recorded a strong correction yesterday, integrating a de-escalation between Iran and the United States. To a lesser extent, the strengthening of the dollar also observed since last weekend constitutes an additional factor of downward pressure on prices in Chicago.
Wheat prices fall back below the level of $5.30/bu on the upcoming March 2026 contract, down more than by -10 cents/bu on the session. In corn, the decline is less, with the March 2026 contract closing the day above $4.25/bu and down by -2 cents/bu.
In oilseeds, soybean and vegetable oil prices also recorded a strong decline during the day in Chicago, to finally hold the decline at the end of the session. The start of harvests in Brazil, coupled with production estimates that are still optimistic, raises fears that competition with American origins will quickly resume on the international export market. The price of soybean oil also experienced a new session of decline, following the 4 consecutive session of decline. The March 2026 contract returns below the level of 53.50 cents / lb, erasing part of the rebound movement observed since the end of January.

Black Sea market

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