Analysis 01/06/2026

European market

Confusion remains around the Persian Gulf as the 4th month of blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins. However, the markets continued to bet on an upcoming peace at the end of last week with crude oil which continued its decline to $86/barrel in New York on Friday. In this context, the funds weighed on the sale of a majority of materials, including grains and oilseeds.
The end of the month and its traditional profit-taking only accentuated the downward movement, as did the expected end of the heat wave in Western Europe.
The September 2026 wheat Euronext contract shows a decline of -2.75 €/t to 207.50 €/t and closes at the lowest since last May 8th.
The August 2026 rapeseed Euronext contract is down by €2.5/t to €524.5/t. Rapeseed decline is limited by the persistent tension in the vegetable oils sector.
Finally, the corn contract is largely driven by the positions exiting on the June 2026 contract which will close this Friday, June 5, 2026.
FranceAgriMer published on Friday its weekly grain report on the state of crops in France:
Wheat: 78% "good to excellent", down -2 points over the week, compared to 70% last year and 71% on average 5 years
Durum wheat: 71% "good to excellent", unchanged over the week, compared to 75% last year and 69% on average
Winter barley: 76% "good to excellent", unchanged over the week, compared to 66% last year and 72% on average
Spring barley: 83% from "good to excellent", down by -2 points over the week, compared to 73% last year and 76% on average 5 years.

American market

Prices were down last Friday on Chicago. Funds' selling pressure has spread to wheat, corn and soybeans in a context of easing crude oil prices and profit-taking at the end of the month. The absence of a new bullish element on the grain side and especially of a new imminent climate risk across the large global production basins or the large American production basins has left buyers behind.

Wheat, which was the most bullish at the beginning of the month, is the one that is suffering the most in Chicago with a decline of -10 to -13 cents on Friday depending on the contracts.

Corn, meanwhile, is falling by -2 to -9 cents depending on the contracts and is still supported by good export activity.

Soybeans give up -7.75 cents on the front contract in a situation that is nevertheless more divided than on cereals because its oil remains oriented upwards.

The USDA published on Friday the latest weekly export sales figures in the United States: 

Wheat: -807,000 t in 2025/26 and +1.6 Mt in 2026/27
Corn: 1,015 Mt in 2025/26 and 618,600 t in 2026/27
Soybeans: 300,000 t in 2025/26 and 137,700 t in 2026/27.

Black Sea market

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