European market
Wheat and rapeseed posted a rebound on Euronext yesterday, benefiting not only from the usual technical and chart-related factors, but also from a further weakening of the euro against the dollar. Indeed, the dollar remains firm and supported by the Fed’s tighter monetary policy in response to inflation, particularly energy inflation, in the United States, while the euro is falling following comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde that were viewed as dovish. In this context, the euro/dollar exchange rate has returned to its summer lows at 1.1315.
Oil prices are meanwhile mixed. Peace negotiations between the United States and Iran remain difficult, with the key issue being the challenging passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, however, the market is finding some relief from the resumption of Saudi oil shipments through the Red Sea, as well as the US proposal to lend 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Corn was the only grain to close lower in a context where demand rationing in France and Europe is offsetting the production losses being recorded daily. The price spread between Euronext corn, Nov 26, and Euronext wheat, Dec 26, stood at 35 €/t at Monday evening’s close, before narrowing to 30 €/t by last night’s close.
American market
The Chicago market was generally in a wait-and-see mode following Monday’s decline, pending fresh information. Prices remained close to unchanged overall, apart from a few rebounds in the soybean complex. Market participants will be particularly focused on the USDA’s quarterly report on US stocks, due on Wednesday, September 30. For corn and soybeans, the inventory of US corn stocks as of August 30 corresponds to the end-of-season stocks for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Weather is also attracting attention at the start of an excessively wet autumn across the Corn Belt, although corn harvest progress, estimated at 18 %, and soybean harvest progress, estimated at 17 % according to the USDA, remain in line with normal levels.
