European market
Volatility is at its peak in the grain market. More than €22/t separates the highest from the lowest traded on Friday's session on the front Euronext wheat contract. This amplitude is € 24.75/t on the November 2026 rapeseed contract. Corn showed 14 €/t of amplitude.
After a new very firm start to the session in the context of risks and blockages in the Black Sea, prices collapsed very quickly at the beginning of Friday afternoon following rumors that Ukraine would consider various solutions to negotiate with Russia with a view to resuming maritime grain export flows. The meeting this Tuesday, July 28, of President Zelensky with Donald Trump is also fueling a lot of expectations in this sense. Nevertheless, nothing concrete has been clarified to date, let alone on the Russian side. This is how the market erased part of its losses before the close. In parallel, the rapeseed market is being heckled by the closing this Friday of the August 2026 contract. In the end, over the week, Euronext wheat September 2026 loses €2/t, corn November 2026 gains €0.75/t and rapeseed November 2026 increases by + €7.75/t.
In the Middle East, the United States has paused since Friday evening its strikes on Iran which in return stops its retaliation. As the talks continue, crude oil is rapidly decreasing. After a return above $100 in the middle of last week, Brent's barrel returns below $88 in London this Monday morning. The euro/dollar takes advantage of this to rebound and return slightly above 1.1405.
At a time when fires are raging in the south-west of France, the drought and the heat wave that have been hitting the country for several months have not said their last word. A new wave is expected this week: an additional fatal blow to summer crops such as corn and sunflower. FranceAgriMer also lowered the rating of corn in France on Friday to only 38% from "good to excellent" against 41% the previous week and 62% on average 5 years.
American market
As in Europe, the volatility was extreme on Friday on the American grain markets. Rumors of a proposal to reopen shipping in the Black Sea from Ukraine caused massive liquidations on the Chicago market after several sessions of massive purchases by the funds.
If wheat remained marked by selling pressure until the close, corn and soybeans quickly turned away to return to their own concerns. Influenced by the decline in wheat, corn closed unchanged while soybeans are up 10.5 cents on the close. Indeed, the weather is still looking excessively hot in the west of the Corn Belt with highs approaching 40°C in the Dakotas, Nebraska and western Iowa.
Black Sea market
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