Analysis 19/06/2026

European market

Grains marked a break during yesterday's session. After the dynamism offered by corn in the middle of the week, the markets were struggling to take a clear direction. However, the heat wave in France remains likely to stress operators, especially on spring crops. For winter crops, it remains difficult to assess the impact, given the very heterogeneous stages of development depending on the region.
The harvest is accelerating in barley and is gradually bringing the markets into a phase of harvest pressure. In addition, operators remain concerned about demand, in particular due to the absence of Morocco and Algeria. Moreover, the OAIC was taking advantage of the downturn in recent days to contract wheat, especially from the Black Sea.
Russian prices continue their downward momentum, a sign of the future arrival of new volumes to the ports. If last year, the southern zone of the country saw its wheat volumes limited, this is not the case this year, which forces the other origins to adjust from July to hope to make their way on the international scene.
Rapeseed, for its part, remains a source of volatility, as evidenced by the return close to the support zone of €500/t on Euronext's August contract. The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is at the origin of the decline in crude oil prices, but will be closely monitored today to verify its compliance. Finally, the euro/dollar parity marked a new decline by falling back below 1.15.

American market

US prices were adjusting yesterday, while the markets will be closed for three days. On the occasion of Emancipation Day, Chicago will be closed, forcing operators to make their arrangements earlier in the week.
Thursday's session was marked by new exceptional sales, in particular 132,000 tons of soybeans destined for China, enough to revive hopes of more sustained business flows in the coming months. To this were added 120,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown destination and 286,000 tons of corn to Mexico.
On the side of weekly sales, they stand out in line with expectations, with :
Wheat: 667,000 t
Corn: 1.16 Mt
Soybeans: 425,000 t
In the medium term, operators will keep a close eye on the USDA's quarterly report, which, in addition to stocks, will give valuable indications on areas.

Black Sea market

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