European market
Geopolitics remains at the heart of market concerns at this beginning of the year. Tensions are rising every day in Iran. In response, Donald Trump announces 25% additional US customs duties to any country trading with Iran. This is enough to tighten trade relations with many countries, including China. Uncertainty dominates. Crude oil is hovering around $60/barrel in New York while gold and to a lesser extent the dollar are playing their role as a safe haven.
On the grain market, the eyes were mainly turned to the USDA and its January report. This latest publication has not failed to bring its share of bearish news for grains and oilseeds which are closing lower on both sides of the Atlantic.
The world wheat production for 2025/26 has been increased by the USDA by +4.4 Mt to a new record of 842.2 Mt. The global stock for 2025/26, meanwhile, climbs to 278.25 Mt against 274.87 Mt expected last month, i.e. 18 Mt more than in the previous campaign.
In the EU, the 2025/26 wheat stock is estimated by the USDA at 14.2 Mt against 13.7 Mt last month and against 11.7 Mt last year.
The 2025/26 world corn production is revised up by the USDA by +13 Mt on a new record of 1,296 Mt. The global stock for 2025/26 is increasing to 290.91 Mt against 279.15 Mt expected last month. It was 294.7 Mt on the previous campaign.
The USDA has left its EU corn balance sheet unchanged with a 2025/26 end-of-season stock of 5.86 Mt against 6.21 Mt in 2024/25.
Finally in soybeans, world production 2025/26 has risen by the USDA by +3.14 Mt to 425.68 Mt, which leads to an increase in the world stock to 124.4 Mt against 122.4 Mt expected last month and against 123.4 Mt in 2024/25. In particular, a new production record is expected in Brazil at 178 Mt compared to the previous record last year which was 171.5 Mt.
American market
The USDA is going on the opposte of the market consensus and displays a US 2025/26 corn production at the very strong level of 432.34 Mt, i.e. 6.8 Mt more than last month and especially 54.1 Mt more than in 2024/25. The increases in domestic consumption displayed in parallel are not enough to stem the increase in the carry-over stock which peaks at 56.6 Mt against 51.5 Mt expected last month and 39.4 Mt over 2024/25.
In the space of one session, the corn on Chicago has lost all of its gains since last August 20th. It is therefore a return on the $4.2/bushel which is observed on the March 2026 contract against $4.45/bu on the last sessions.
The USDA adjustments remained much more modest on wheat with just a decrease in livestock feed consumption by -0.55 Mt to 2.72 Mt. This leads to a 2025/26 US wheat stock of 25.2 Mt against 24.5 Mt last month and 23.3 Mt in 2024/25. The price of US wheat is mainly driven down by the collapse of corn prices.
Black Sea market
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