European market

The delay in Russia’s harvest and producers’ reluctance to sell are disrupting export flows and supporting wheat prices across the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, hot and dry weather across Europe’s corn-growing areas is once again raising concerns.

In this context, short-covering is intensifying, particularly from investment funds. That’s all it takes in a tight market—also in France—to push prices upward.

The easing of the euro/dollar exchange rate, which has dropped to 1.1670 from 1.1830 ten days ago, is giving European prices an additional boost.

Against this backdrop, wheat and corn closed yesterday near their session highs on Euronext, with significant gains: + 4.50 €/t to 201.25 €/t for September 2025 wheat, and + 5 €/t for August 2025 corn.

Rapeseed is currently performing much less impressively, barely managing to hold its support level at 460 €/t for the August 2025 Euronext contract. In addition to harvest pressure in Europe, uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s tariff policies is weighing on the oilseed and energy sectors.

American market

Wheat led the rally yesterday in Chicago. Rising in tandem with the price rebound seen in Europe and the Black Sea region, the U.S. market also welcomed strong weekly export sales. With 567,823 t of U.S. wheat sold over the past week, exports are ahead of the pace expected by the USDA. Corn and soybeans also posted solid export figures for the week:

• Corn: 1.262 mnt for 2024/2025 and 889,000 t for 2025/2026

• Soybeans: 503,000 t for 2024/2025 and 248,000 t for 2025/2026

• Additionally, an exceptional sale of 110,000 t of U.S. corn to an unknown destination was reported yesterday.

Despite these sales, corn and soybean prices are struggling to rebound and remain near recent lows due to large harvests—either completed or expected—in South and North America. Notably, Conab slightly lowered its soybean production estimate in Brazil yesterday by 0.12 mnt to 169.48 mnt, while raising its corn forecast by 3.72 mnt to a new record of 131.97 mnt.

The USDA’s WASDE report, set to be released today, is expected to reflect these high production levels in Brazil. More broadly, market participants are watching this report closely to set the tone for the day and the end of the week. In the meantime, funds were actively covering short positions in wheat, corn, and soybeans yesterday.

Black Sea market

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