European market

New developments are not lacking on the markets, which is reflected in prices, as they showed strong volatility at the end of last week. Wheat is a perfect illustration, with the Sep contract closing above 215 €/t, a daily increase of 11.25 €/t. Corn was no exception, showing a firmer tone with a gain of 6.25 €/t on the Nov contract, which was trading at 238.75 €/t.

In the background, operators are keeping in mind the heatwave affecting France. Although uneven, wheat yields are disappointing in certain regions, forcing professionals to reassess their positions. Fieldwork is continuing with remarkable progress since, according to FranceAgriMer, 59 % of wheat and 46 % of spring barley have already been harvested. The same body once again provided support to the market by logically lowering by 11 points, in one week, the share of corn rated in good to excellent condition. It now stands at 47 %, a level well below the five-year average of 69 %.

On the international stage, tensions remain palpable in the Middle East and the Black Sea. While Iranians and Americans resume a standoff that is disrupting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the Russians, for their part, have suspended passage in the Kerch Strait. In this context, the Sea of Azov is becoming enclosed, limiting exports from the many ports along its shores.

On Friday, the USDA also released its monthly report, with adjustments notably concerning European corn. Production was lowered by 3.7 mn t to reach 53.8 mn t. As a result, imports could rise to 23.2 mn t, their highest level since the 2022/2023 campaign.

In wheat, attention was particularly focused on Russian and Ukrainian production, both of which were increased by 0.5 mn t, reaching 88.5 mn t and 24 mn t respectively.

American market

Like their European counterparts, US prices also regained firmness at the end of last week. Geopolitical tensions fully contributed to this movement, along with new USDA data highlighting the weakness of the US wheat harvest.

The agency thus lowered its production forecast by 200,000 t for the 2025/2026 campaign, to 41.8 mn t, a level well below the 54 mn t harvested last year.

This revision is also accompanied by a decrease of 400,000 t in beginning stocks, as a result of sustained demand from the feed sector. In the end, US wheat stocks fell by 600,000 t, dropping back below the 20 mn t threshold to reach their lowest level in three years.

In corn, the USDA had already made a strong impression with the release of its end-of-June quarterly report. The adjustments made this month therefore appear more limited. US consumption was nevertheless revised upwards, which helps tighten carryout stocks, now expected at 51.3 mn t, down 3.2 mn t from previous projections.

Finally, in soybeans, few notable changes were reported. Operators nevertheless remained attentive to US export prospects, in a context marked by the resumption of trade with China. The US export target is now estimated at 45.18 mn t, up 0.82 mn t from last month.

Black Sea market

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