European market
Days go by and markets are growing impatient. Admittedly, a 10‑day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is set to begin this Friday, according to announcements by Donald Trump, but the lack of concrete progress at the end of this seventh week of conflict between the United States and Iran is gradually reintroducing a risk premium into oil prices. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point of market attention.
It is against this backdrop that oil prices strengthened yesterday, with Brent crude closing at USD 99.4 per barrel last night in London, while WTI settled at USD 93.3. Equity indices consequently adopted a much more cautious tone. Meanwhile, the euro/dollar pair confirmed yesterday its rejection of the 1.18/1.1820 resistance zone, falling back to 1.1780.
This environment has provided some underlying support to European grain prices, particularly rapeseed. A marked firming of prices on the European rapeseed biodiesel market has been observed this week, further contributing to the upward momentum of the rapeseed complex. On Euronext, the rally is being led by the May 2026 contract, which posted a new record closing high yesterday at 6:30 p.m. Paris time, at EUR 516.75/t—up EUR 8.25/t day-on-day and EUR 20/t over the week. With just 10 days to expiry, the rally is accelerating in an already tight end‑of‑season context.
Although supported by spillover effects from the U.S. wheat weather market, wheat prices lacked conviction yesterday on Euronext, as both the European and international outlook remain burdensome heading into the end of the 2025/2026 campaign.
Corn prices were rather volatile yesterday on Euronext, particularly on old‑crop contracts, amid profit‑taking on the Chicago market.
American market
The spring weather market is in full swing in the United States. Against a backdrop of mounting drought across the southern Great Plains, HRW wheat prices have driven the upside since the beginning of the week. Although more regularly watered further east, SRW wheat followed higher in sympathy, with funds active on the buy side across both contracts.
Having already priced in the previous day the risk of potential planting delays in the Corn Belt due to adverse weather, corn and soybean prices eased yesterday. Funds in particular returned as sellers on corn. The bearish driver of the day came from Argentina, where the Buenos Aires exchange raised its 2025/2026 corn production forecast to a new all‑time record of 61 Mt, up from the previously expected 57 Mt.
Soybeans, for their part, were weighed down by disappointing weekly export figures, which fell to the lowest level since the start of the 2025/2026 campaign at 247,886 tonnes. Weekly U.S. export sales published yesterday by the USDA were also disappointing for wheat, at just 100,318 tonnes for 2025/2026—down nearly 40% from the previous week. Only U.S. corn stood out on the commercial front, with 1.4 Mt sold last week for 2025/2026, a six‑week high.
