European market

After a strong increase of last recent days, wheat prices paused on Euronext. The €240/t mark acted as resistance on the September contract, generating profit-taking on the part of many operators.
On the international scene, however, the situation still seems out of control, with persistent tensions in the Black Sea and in the Middle East. In these two regions, new attacks were recorded at the beginning of the week, enough to maintain the geopolitical risk premium.
On the ground, Argus Media published the results of its annual survey concerning French wheat production at 30.8 Mt. Unsurprisingly, this comes out below the estimates published by Agreste last week. The national average yield is estimated at 6.67 t/ha, a decrease of 6.5% compared to the truncated average of the last ten years. In the end, 2026-27 production would decline by 2.55 Mt, or 7.6%, compared to last season.
Another consequence of the weather conditions: the low waters observed on the Rhine and the Danube, likely to disrupt intra-European flows.
We should also note the return to purchases by Tunisia, which has launched a call for tenders for 75,000 t of wheat. The main teaching of this tender comes from the mention relating to the Black Sea origins. Indeed, it specifies that: "For any shipment from the Black Sea, Tunisia’s state grains office requires Black Sea suppliers to take full responsibility for delivery and not invoke force majeure. »
Rapeseed is setting new highs in the wake of soybeans and canola. The November contract on Euronext closed close to the psychological level of €560/t. The oilseed complex also remains supported by the sharp deterioration in sunflower yield potentials in Western Europe.

American market

Soybean prices cross the psychological level of $12/bushel and continue their upward momentum. It must be said that exports are gaining strength, as evidenced by the new sales recorded at the beginning of the week. After last Friday's announcements, the USDA has again reported the following sales:

264,000 t to China 
110,000 t to an unknown destination.
Corn is not left out, with 100,000 t announced for Colombia. To this is added a still tense energy context, likely to offer new prospects for corn consumption by the ethanol industry.

The export inspections stand out as follows :

Wheat: 214,000 t, within expectations 
Corn: 1.55 Mt, at the top of the expectations range 
Soybeans: 297,000 t, below expectations.
On the ground, the operators had their eyes on the growing conditions. Although the share of corn acreage judged to be in a good to excellent condition has decreased by one point, to 67%, this level stands out in the high part of market expectations. It should be noted that 59% of the plots have now reached the flowering stage, which encourages stakeholders to closely monitor the weather conditions in the coming weeks, this phase being crucial for the yield potential.

On the soybeans side, 66% of the crops are judged to be in a good to excellent condition. In winter wheat, harvests are progressing more slowly, with 74% of the areas now harvested.

Black Sea market

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