European market

Already supported by the weaker euro against the dollar, prices are strengthening on the European market following the latest developments observed in the Black Sea, where several merchant vessels have been attacked. This situation once again highlights the ongoing complexity in the region, where logistical difficulties and navigation constraints continue to intensify.

At the same time, the collapse in export volumes from Russia and Ukraine is leading to increased exports from other origins. For now, the latest European Union data, although still incomplete, show a slight increase in export volumes since the beginning of the marketing year compared with last year, despite lower European production and higher prices observed since the summer. Dec 26 futures are therefore trading close to their highest levels in a month, now moving above 247 €/t.

Corn prices are also showing strength. The sharp decline in French and European production is making it necessary to accelerate imports, the volumes of which have increased since the start of the marketing year according to figures published by the European Union. In this context, U.S.-origin corn is particularly sought after.

Rapeseed prices are moving higher on Euronext, with the exception of the Nov 26 contract which, as a reminder, expires at the end of this month. The price gap between this nearby contract and the more distant maturities mirrors the decline observed this summer when the Aug 26 contract expired. For the other maturities, prices continue to rise. The Feb 27 contract has thus moved back above 560 €/t and is now trading close to its highest quoted levels.

American market

The U.S. market moved higher yesterday across wheat, corn, and the soybean complex.

The return of corn prices to their lowest levels since mid-August provided buyers with an opportunity to step back into the market. The upcoming release of the USDA report at the end of the week is also prompting some position adjustments, particularly among investment funds. In addition, harvest progress, which has been slightly behind schedule so far, is raising questions about yield potential. The Dec 26 contract has therefore moved back above the 5 $/bu threshold, although it has not offset last week's sharp decline, closing at 5.08 $/bu.

The soybean complex is also advancing, supported by a slower harvest pace than in recent seasons due to very different weather conditions. Nevertheless, producers remain optimistic about an acceleration in fieldwork as early as next week, thanks to the drier conditions forecast. The Nov 26 soybean contract in Chicago has thus moved back above the 13 $/bu threshold.

In wheat, the attacks on merchant vessels have once again highlighted the tensions and logistical difficulties that remain very real in the Black Sea region. Prices, which had fallen to their lowest levels since mid-August, have therefore rebounded since the beginning of the week. The Dec 26 contract in Chicago is now approaching an important technical area, returning to the 7.60 $/bu level.

Black Sea market

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