European market
The shutdown has just ended in the United States and a lot of public data is missing. The USDA will release this Friday its copy of the November WASDE report. The markets are very wait-and-see, which provides some support for prices despite the well-documented global ample supply.
In France, FranceAgriMer published yesterday its balance sheets for the month of November. The status quo is maintained on wheat with exports to non-EU countries still at 7.85 Mt and Community exports at 7.05 Mt. The carry-over stock expected by FranceAgriMer on June 30, 2026 therefore remains at the level of 2.8 Mt. Status quo is also on the corn stocks, posted at 1.97 Mt. In barley, the good dynamics in exports is highlighted with an increase of 240,000 t in sales to non-EU countries to reach 3.25 Mt in 2025/26. This allows the stock to be reduced to 1.7 Mt against 1.9 Mt previously.
After Algeria earlier this week, Tunisia yesterday confirmed a new purchase of 125,000 t of soft wheat and 100,000 t of durum wheat.
As every year at this time, the eyes are turned to South America and its next harvests. While the wheat harvest has begun in Argentina, production estimates are refining and especially going up. After the Rosario Stock Exchange which on Wednesday evening raised its harvest forecast to 24.5 Mt, the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange followed suit yesterday, raising its figure by +2 Mt to 24 Mt.
This imminent competition for French wheat on the international scene is weighing on Euronext wheat prices, which are closing in scattered order. Corn and rapeseed showed more firmness yesterday, especially in the context of reduced imports from Ukraine in recent weeks.
American market
Firmness dominated yesterday on the Chicago market, in particular with a strong presence of funds for purchases on all products before the USDA's WASDE report tonight. The adjustments have mainly taken place in corn and soybeans with expectations of lower yields on the part of the USDA. Wheat, although supported by this momentum, shows less enthusiasm and remains penalized by the latest production increases achieved by the Argentine grain exchanges.
With the shutdown having ended in the United States after more than 40 days of blocking by the federal administration, the USDA resumed yesterday its traditional publication of weekly US export sales. This indicator is particularly scrutinized during this period of Chinese purchases expected by the markets. However, it will be necessary to wait until January 8th for publications to return to their normal rhythm. Until then, the USDA will catch up with a pace of 2 publications per week starting at the end of November.
The figures for the week ending on September 25 last year were published yesterday with:
Wheat: 315,900 t
Corn: 1,395 Mt
Soybeans: 870,500 t.
While waiting for the USDA report, North American operators are carefully monitoring the potentials of South American harvests. The CONAB published yesterday its latest harvest forecasts in Brazil for 2025/26 on record levels and close to those of last month with 177.6 Mt of soybeans and 138.8 Mt of corn.
Black Sea market
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