European market

Like oil prices, which are moving in line with the uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, agricultural market prices are also paying close attention to any information regarding the potential evolution of export activity from Ukraine and Russia through Black Sea ports. Since the beginning of summer, activity has remained very limited, even though both countries have significant quantities to export during the grain marketing year that is beginning, consisting of available stocks and new volumes from the harvest. This weak activity has nevertheless supported wheat exports from several European countries, notably Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria. However, European export activity has been running at a low level since the start of the marketing year, according to the available data from the European Commission.

On Euronext, grain prices posted a sharp decline yesterday across all traded contracts, both for wheat and corn. However, the downturn was more pronounced in wheat, pushing the nearby Sep 26 contract back below 215 €/t and to its lowest level in one month, dragging subsequent contracts lower as well, although to a lesser extent.

Rapeseed prices, after four consecutive sessions of gains, also moved lower yesterday, mirroring canola on the Winnipeg exchange in Canada. On Euronext, the Nov 26 contract, after testing a technical resistance area near the 540 €/t level, retreated and closed below 535 €/t. The rebound in oil prices observed yesterday failed to provide support to vegetable oil prices, which were showing a slight decline in Europe compared with the previous day.

American market

Soybean prices moved higher yesterday, attempting to halt the downward trend seen since last week. New Chinese purchases of soybeans have indeed been announced, in addition to the purchases made earlier this week. The recent decline in prices is prompting Chinese buyers to return to the market, against the backdrop of the implementation of the commitment made as part of the trade negotiations between China and the US. The Nov 26 contract in Chicago, after falling back below 11.75 $/bu midweek, is recovering slightly and this morning has moved back above 11.80 $/bu. At the same time, soybean meal and soybean oil prices have changed little and are currently stabilising on their technical support zones.

In corn, prices edged higher yesterday without offsetting the previous day's decline. Weekly export sales show a sharp slowdown in activity for the old crop. In the new marketing year, however, weekly sales figures exceeded 1 mn t, in line with traders' expectations. While awaiting the publication of the USDA monthly report, market participants are closely monitoring weather conditions in corn-producing areas.

Wheat prices moved lower yesterday, falling back below 6.35 $/bu on the Sep 26 contract. During the session, wheat traded at a new low for nearly one month, returning to test the technical area around 6.27 $/bu. US market participants remain attentive to the situation in the Black Sea, although tensions in the region no longer appear to be causing as much concern as they did last July.

Black Sea market

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