Analysis 10/01/2022

European market

On Friday, wheat prices rose slightly on Euronext, while corn prices were unchanged. Once again, rapeseed was the main focus of attention, with prices skyrocketting at the unprecedented level of 828 €/t on the February delivery.

On the international scene, the USA sold 176,784 tonnes of corn to Mexico and 120,000 tonnes of soybean to an undisclosed destination. China sold just over 500,000 t of its reserve stocks to its domestic market.

On Euronext, wheat recorded a loss for the week. The USDA report on Wednesday should see production estimates in Australia and Argentina revised upwards.

Fertilizer prices remain very high and deliveries are also being hampered by the Covid crisis, which is causing logistical difficulties.

Rapeseed is dealing at a record high, supported by a clear deficit in Europe and by increasingly reduced availability from Canada. Canola prices are also trading at record levels. This morning's MPOB report is seen as slightly bullish for palm. Stocks are down by 12.88 % from November and production is down by 11.26 %.

The dollar weakens slightly to 1.1335 against the euro and 75.40 against the ruble. Oil remains firm at 79.00 usd/barrel in New York. Oil is supported by the situation in Kazakhstan.

American market

Chicago's prices rose again on Friday amid soaring energy prices and climate fears in South America. The week will be marked by the USDA report on Wednesday, which will include the publication of US winter wheat acreage figures. The trade is expecting an all wheat figure of 34.3 million acres. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Exchange estimates the country's production at 21.8 Mt compared to 20 Mt posted last month by the USDA.

Corn is supported by the Buenos Aires Exchange's crop rating of 40% good to excellent compared to 58% last month. Plantings are 77% complete.

Soybean aris also benefiting from a downward revision of production estimates in Brazil by many analysts. Production could be around 134 Mt compared to 144 Mt seen in the last USDA report. The soybean crop rating on the Buenos Aires Exchange has been reduced from 56% of good to excellent to 48%.

On Friday, funds were net buyers in 3,500 lots of corn, 12,500 lots of soybean and 5,500 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

There was little change in Ukraine on Friday as the market was tight due to a bank holiday. While wheat prices were almost unchanged, there was a slight drop in corn prices.

A clear drop in temperatures is expected in the Black Sea basin in the middle of the week, but for the moment there are no concerns about the state of the crops.