European market
There is an end of session rebound on wheat on Euronext thanks to a good international demand and competitive French origins. Thus, after Algeria whose tender ends tonight, Turkey and Jordan are buying respectively 320 000 and 120 000 t of milling wheat from optional origins. By relaxing its specifications, Algeria once again opens the door to Russian influence. Time will tell what volume will be retained. Another factor of support yesterday on Euronext, the chartist analysis with a rebound on the support giving the opportunity to buy for analyst’s funds of these figures.
Coceral estimates that European soft wheat production next year, including Britain, would be 139.8 million tons compared to 143.2 this year. The reason for this forecast is the decrease in acreage in some countries, including France, and the autumn water deficit in Eastern Europe. For barley, Coceral estimates 2022 production at this stage at 59.0 million tons, compared with 59.4 million tons this year. Maize production is expected to be stable at 66.4 million tons, while rapeseed production is expected to increase to 20.0 million tons, compared to 18.5 million tons this year.
Palm oil is losing ground this morning in the wake of other oils. However, the decline could be limited given the state of the stocks.
The dollar is up this morning on the eve of the Fed meeting, at 1.1275 against the euro and 73.50 against the ruble. Oil is losing ground at 70.90 usd/barrel in New York.
American market
Soybean and corn prices fell in Chicago yesterday as weather forecasts suggested that rainfall would be beneficial mainly in southern Brazil, an area with Argentina that is currently suffering from a water deficit.
Export inspections this week are at 1.724 million tons in soybeans, below the range of traders' expectations. In corn, inspections are at 810,395 tons, within the range of expectations. In soybeans, the competition with Brazil will be intense, in a market where logistics costs are more than usual, as well as the evolution of local currencies.
Funds were net sellers yesterday for 6,500 lots of corn and 12,000 lots of soybeans. They were net buyers for 3,000 lots of wheat.
Black Sea market
Wheat and corn prices fell slightly yesterday in the Black Sea basin, despite a sustained export activity last week in corn for Ukraine, with probably a major buyer, China.
Algeria, whose call for tenders ends tonight, could once again source some of its corn from Russia, following the easing of its specifications.
Last night in Moscow the temperature dropped to -7 degrees, while in Krasnodar and Kiev it is around zero. If the weather is sunny in Krasnodar, we can see snowfall in Kiev.
