Analysis 23/11/2021

European market

The €300/t mark on wheat has been crossed yesterday on Euronext and on the physical market, with an all-time high expressed in euros. In addition to the many factors already mentioned to justify this rally, there are now fears about the quality of the Australian wheat, which has been damaged by the rains at harvest time. Also, flooding in Canada is causing logistical difficulties, particularly in the ports.

The other cereals like corn and barley are also experiencing an uptrend.

This unprecedented situation is the result of multiple factors, ranging from fundamentals to geopolitics, and from rising input to energy costs. These different factors will be analysed at the Paris Grain Day conference on 27 and 28 January.

On the international market, Bangladesh is officially buying 50,000 t of wheat and South Korea about 50,000 t of corn.

Rapeseed prices rebounded sharply yesterday amid increased volatility on the commodity and concerns about supplies from Canada.

The dollar remains firm at 1.1230 against the euro and 74.80 against the ruble. Oil is steady at 76.30 usd/barrel pending talks between the US, China and Japan on the release of reserve stocks.

American market

Wheat prices on Chicago are trading at their highest level since 2012. One of the reasons for yesterday's rise is the deterioration of the winter wheat crop rating at only 44% of good to excellent compared to 46% last week. 96% of winter wheat is now planted, up 2 points from last week but below expectations.

Corn and soybean harvesting is estimated at 95% completed, slightly below traders' expectations.

Soybean and corn export inspections this week are within the range of expectations, and wheat is below expectations.

According to AgRural, 86% of the Brazilian soybean area is planted, compared to 91% last year.

Yesterday, funds were net buyers in 10,500 lots of corn, 7,500 lots of soybeans and 15,500 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

Wheat prices are rising further in the Black Sea region in the wake of other markets. This has led to an increase in Russian export taxes to 78.30 usd/t this week.

The Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture surprised yesterday by posting estimates of maize production this year at 40 Mt, above the range of analysts' estimates. While maize prices in FOB terms are up, domestic prices are currently experiencing harvest pressure.