Analysis 14/09/2021

European market

After a lacklustre session, wheat prices on Euronext closed on a slightly positive note amid growing competitiveness for French origin on the international scene, as prices in the Black Sea region continue to rise.

On the international market, the US sold another 132,000t of soybean to undisclosed destination. Saudi Arabia bought 382,000 t of milling wheat and Algeria 330,000 t of feed barley, optional origins.

Morocco will return to the market with the lifting of its import taxes, which will take effect on November 1.

FranceAgriMer will publish tomorrow its monthly report on the French supply balances.

Rapeseed prices are supported by the firmness of oil and palm. The latter rebounded yesterday on hopes that exports would grow significantly following India's decision to lower its import taxes. Traders will be watching closely the StatCan report on Canada today.

The dollar is losing some ground this morning at 1.1810 against the euro and 72.60 against the ruble. Crude oil is gaining some ground at 70.85 usd/barrel in New York this morning.

American market

In Chicago, after a drop in corn prices at the close last night, prices are up again this morning in pre-opening trading. This is a reaction to the crop rating published last night, which is down to 58% of good to excellent from 59% last week. According to the USDA, 4% of the acreage has been harvested compared to the five-year average of 5%.

For soybeans, the crop rating is unchanged at 57%. Soybean is benefiting from regular export activity with another 132,000 t sold yesterday.

Exports from the US remain temporarily disrupted by the impact of Hurricane IDA on port facilities.

Funds were net sellers yesterday on 6,000 lots of corn, 500 lots of soybeans and 1,000 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

In the Black Sea basin, wheat prices continue to climb, despite the export taxes in place in Russia. They amount now to 52.50 usd/t for the period from 15 to 21 September. The previous period was subject to a duty of 46.50 usd/t. However, this does not seem likely to slow down the export activity which was very strong in August.

The price differential between 11.5 and 12.5% protein wheat in Ukraine stands at 9 to 10 usd/t. Rains are expected by the end of the week in the country. This could slow down the corn harvest.