Analysis 18/06/2021

European market

Yesterday's session was impressive with a massive wave of liquidation on all products, mainly driven by funds. This unprecedented volatility should discourage any speculation and push the operators to be extremely cautious.

The reason for the sell-off remains the improved weather situation in the US. A new 10-day forecasts is suggesting further rainfall and milder temperatures.

In its Wednesday's monetary policy meeting, the US Federal Reserve projected ithat interest rates could move up sooner than last predicted. This strengthened the dollar and also added to the downward pressure on commodities.

On the international scene, we note the purchase by Japan of a little more than 207,000 t of milling wheat from the US, Canada and Australia. Turkey is again buying 395,000 t of milling wheat.

The current thunderstorms in France are welcome, provided that they do not cause damage or do no last too long not to compromise the quality aspects. In Russia, while conditions remain favourable in the south of the country, Agritel's analysts are still warning of a water deficit in the central zone, mainly affecting spring wheat.

In Argentina, maize yields have been revised upwards and the Buenos Aires exchange has posted a crop estimate of 48 Mt. 57% of the wheat area was estimated to be planted as of yesterday.

Rapeseed prices dipped sharply yesterday in the wake of soybean oil. There were rumours that the Biden administration would relax biodiesel blending requirements. Canola reached its limit down yesterday as rains are expected in the south of Canada.

The dollar is sharply up at 1.1920 against the euro and 72.37 against the ruble. Oil is slightly down at 70.50 usd/barrel.


American market

In addition to favourable weather forecasts for the next few days, weak US export sales added to the selling pressure on the markets. In this context, trading limits have been revised upwards from today to 60 cents/bushel for corn and 150 cents for soybeans.

Weekly exports amounted to 287,100 t of wheat, 294,100 t of corn and 71,700 t of soybeans.

Despite improved weather outlook, 41% of Iowa's acreage remains in water deficit. Iowa is a major corn and soybean growing state.  

Uncertainty over the Biden administration's policy on biodiesel blending requirements is weighing on the soybean complex.

Funds were net sellers yesterday on 30,000 lots of corn, 30,000 lots of soybeans and 15,000 lots of wheat.


Black Sea market

In Russia, as of 17 June, spring crops were sown on an area of 51.6 million ha, or 100.3% of the forecasted area, according to the latest official data.

The record areas were sown in spring wheat - 13.1 Mha, or 103.2% of the forecast, and sunflower - 9.1 Mha, or 106.9% of the projected area. The significant increase in acreage under these two crops is explained, among other factors, by the need for large-scale reseeding of winter crops in the Central Black Earth and Volga regions.