European market
Forecasts of dry, warm weather in the US for the next fortnight in the Corn Belt were enough to allow the markets to rebound. With tight global balance sheets, the slightest climatic adversity is leading to cautionary buying and extreme volatility. On the other hand, the slightest improvement also leads to profit-taking. This should encourage all operators to be cautious and to rely on good management.
Prices in the Black Sea basin are following the trend with good new crop demand for Russian wheat, despite the introduction of export taxes.
On the international scene, Indonesia has not followed through on its tender for 240,000t of feed wheat.
In corn, Agritel analysts continue to estimate a crop of 90-92 Mt for Brazil, compared to the 102 Mt reported by the USDA in May. The first harvests are beginning in the country in Parana, a state that has been particularly affected by the water deficit of recent weeks. Parana is the second-largest corn-producing state in Brazil, behind Mato Grosso.
Rapeseed prices performed well again yesterday amid the rebound of all vegetable oils. This morning in Kuala Lumpur, the palm was up by 1.5 to 2%.
Tensions are rising between Europe and Malaysia as palm oil is expected to be phased out of biofuels in Europe, with a total ban in 2030 for environmental reasons.
The dollar was little changed at 1.2220 against the euro and 73.45 against the rouble. Crude oil remains firm at 67.80 $/b in New York this morning.
American market
Prices for all commodities rose sharply in Chicago yesterday as weather fears returned to the Corn Belt. Indeed, forecasts indicate dry and hot weather for the next 15 days, leading to fears of a water deficit for this water-consuming plant.
Export inspections were also at or above the top of expectations, particularly for corn, with 80.7 million bushels for corn, 9.43 million for wheat, and 7.06 million for soybean.
The markets were also supported yesterday by the equity markets and by the firmness of energy prices, gas, and crude oil.
Black Sea market
Sunflower oil prices are falling sharply on a weekly basis in the wake of the losses suffered by palm oil. Market operators are concerned about the Asian demand for vegetable oils in the context of the spread of the Indian variant of the virus.
Sunflower oil is now trading at 1450 $/t FOB Odessa, compared to 1570 $/t ten days ago.The new crop oil is now under 1200 $/t FOB Odessa after having touched above 1250 $/t.
