European market
In France, weather conditions are reassuring in areas where rainfall has been recorded. Nevertheless, from one region to another, rainfall levels remain very heterogeneous. This element has nevertheless favoured an easing of prices after the strong rises recorded last week. Prices on Euronext fell sharply for both cereals and oilseeds. The range of variation was significant. On wheat, prices fell by -8.50 €/t on the September 2021 delivery. Forecasts of new rainfall in France in the coming days are a relief, with the prospect of an improvement in the condition of crops and spring crop emergence.
Maize prices were also down yesterday on old and new crop. However, the situation remains tense internationally, especially in Brazil. The decline in production potential in this country is confirmed for the second maize crop, which has been hit hard by drought. Not surprisingly, local analysts are revising their estimates downwards. Adjustments could also be made in the USDA's May monthly report update.
In oilseeds, despite the firmness observed in veg oil prices, rapeseed prices fell, as did soybean prices in the US. The palm oil market remains close to its recent highs. In the current tight context of the oilseed market, the conditions for the development of sunflower crops will be closely monitored.
American market
The week has started on a bearish mood both in cereals and oilseeds. In Chicago, profit takings following last week’s rally and ahead of the USDA’s monthly report tomorrow pushed prices lower. The new announcement of exceptional sales for 1.02 Mt of corn to China after Friday's sales, which also exceeded 1 Mt, did not manage to limit the downward movement. Maize is now testing its first support zones.
At this time of year, operators are paying close attention to the progress of spring work in the USA. In maize, the acceleration is confirmed with 67% of the area sown. Soybean planting is also progressing; yesterday's USDA figures indicate that 40% of the area has been planted. In spring wheat, work has also progressed with 70% of the area sown.
It will now be necessary to monitor the evolution of crop condition and emergence. Winter wheat is rated as "good to excellent" up to 49%, a slight improvement compared to last week. However, the situation remains worse than last year at the same time for this product.
Black Sea market
Spring wheat and barley sowing is now complete in Ukraine. Maize, sunflower and soybean sowing is also progressing rapidly. Despite producers' efforts to advance as quickly as possible, the delay in seeding is still substantial due to the strong backlog at the beginning of the season.
Last year sowing was in the final stages at this period of the year. By now, it is only 50% advanced. In maize, for example, as of last Friday, 2.4 Mha were sown compared to 4.9 Mha last year. In sunflower, 3.2 Mha were drilled on Friday compared to 6.4 Mha last year.
