European market
Markets were again decreasing yesterday in cereals, in a context of lack of competitiveness for European origins in the export market. This was illustrated by the Egyptian tender won by Russia for 290,000 t and by Ukraine for 55,000 t. Despite export taxes in Russia, the Black Sea is competitive with the lowest price offered at 233 $/FOB + 18 $ freight, i.e. 251 $/CIF, and the highest at 234 $/FOB + 18.75 $ freight, i.e. 252.75 $/CIF.
As of 4 April, EU soft wheat exports were displayed at 20.26 Mt compared to 26.33 Mt last year to date. EU exports of barley were at 5.92 Mt compared to 5.96 Mt last year. Corn imports were estimated at 11.83 Mt compared to 16.22 Mt last year to date.
The current low temperatures are causing concern, particularly for rapeseed crops, which are already weakened. This has led to a further significant upward movement in oilseed prices, also supported by the strength of palm oil. EU rapeseed imports amounted at 5.25 Mt as of 4 April, compared to 4.93 Mt last year.
The dollar is decreasing this morning, trading at 1.1866 against the euro but is up at 77.09 against the ruble. Crude oil was little changed at 59.44 $/b.
American market
There was little change in Chicago yesterday with wheat and corn closing almost unchanged. Corn plantings in the US are estimated to be 20% complete today and spring wheat plantings at 3%, in line with expectations. The crop rating for winter wheat is at 53% compared to 62% last year.
Traders will be cautious ahead of the USDA's monthly report next Friday.
In Brazil, the current water deficit may lead traders to revise down their second crop corn production estimate, Safrinha. Agroconsult estimates the Brazilian soybean crop at 137.1 Mt. The analyst revised his Safrinha production estimate to 78.3 Mt from 82.8 Mt.
The funds were not very active yesterday, being net buyers for 500 lots of corn and 4,000 lots of soybeans. They were net sellers in wheat for 1,000 lots.
Black Sea market
Despite the uncertainty in Russia as to the level of export taxes for the new season, Russian exporters were active at the last GASC tender. Indeed, the Egyptian state agency retains 290,000 t of this origin alongside 55,000 tonnes of Ukrainian origin. Loadings will take place during the first tenth of August. On a CIF basis, the contracted price is barely above $250, compared to $300 during the previous tender of 11 March, which concerned old crop.
