Analysis 27/01/2021

European market

Sharp rebound on the market yesterday, which is returning to its fundamentals after a technical correction at the end of last week according to Agritel analysts. About weather, after a phase of significant water deficit on the South American continent, it is the current rains that are now disrupting the harvesting sites and causing fears.

We also note a return of buyer interests, like Algeria with its tender for wheat, while more surprisingly Egypt has still not come back to purchasing. On the other hand, the surprise came yesterday from the exceptional sale of 1.36 million tons of corn by the United States to China, confirming the appetite of the country. Another sale is published from the USA for 102 800 t of corn with unknown destination. Finally, Jordan purchases of 120 000 t of feed barley from optional origins should be noted.

The Russian government yesterday voted to implement the doubling of its wheat export taxes as of next March.

Corn market on Euronext does not have to envy other markets, as French origins shows a good international competitiveness on the global scene.

About oilseeds, canola prices in Canada started to rise again, reaching their highest level in 13 years. Rapeseed is of course finding support and remains part of its upward trend.

All of these elements will be discussed today and tomorrow for the international conference at the Paris Grain Day with nearly 300 participants from around the world.

The dollar evolves a little bit to 1.2190 against the euro and to 74.80 against the ruble. Oil is slightly up this morning at 53.00 dollar per barrel in New York.

American market

Very sharp rebound of prices in Chicago yesterday after the technical correction at the end of last week.

The reason for this is the export activity with an exceptional sale of nearly 1.36 million tons of corn to China. The USDA will necessarily have to revise its export estimates upwards in its next report and consequently revise its ending stock downwards. In this context, the balance sheets are stretched out in corn, which is also supporting wheat. Another factor supporting the market is the demand for American ethanol, which is again coming from China.

About soybeans, it is paradoxically the rains in Brazil that are now supporting prices, because they arrive during the harvest time, delaying the progress of the harvest. Soybean harvesting projects in Brazil are estimated by AG Rural at only 0.7% to date, against 4.2% last year to date.

The funds were net buyers yesterday for 47 500 lots of corn, 21 000 lots of soybeans and 13 000 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

The agronomic services of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological center confirm that the cold snap of the past week did not caused significant damage to the winter crops in place. Depending on the region, the minimums temperatures observed were between -18 ° C and -32 ° C. however, it has to be noted that the potential damage is localized along the Black Sea coast, near the coasts of the Kherson and Odessa regions.