Analysis 26/12/2019

European market

Prices were practically unchanged on Tuesday, last day before Christmas, with physical activity reduced to the strict minimum and half a day session on Euronext.

Only the news on the international scene showed some significant elements. First of all Morocco should announce today the abolition of its import taxes, previously posted at 35 %, in wheat for the rest of the marketing year, that is to extend from January the 2nd to April the 30rd, in 2020. Then, the Argentinean government plans to regionalize its export taxes, which have been raised to 33 % for soybeans and 15 % for wheat and corn, so as not to penalize producers located far from the ports.

In France, strikes on rail transport continue to penalize the flow of goods, causing difficulties in supplying agricultural product processing factories and port silos.

On the international scene, we should also note the purchase by South Korea of 66 000 t of corn from optional origins.

Rapeseed continues to find support in the strength of the palm oil, which has been posting prices at their highest level for almost 3 years, in a context of a falling production, and therefore falling stocks.

Oil prices show some firmness at around 61 usd/barrel in New York. The euro/dollar remains stable at 1.1090

American market

Cereals prices were unchanged on Tuesday, while soybeans were still slightly higher, in a context of hope that Chinese imports will increase.

Imports of soybeans from the USA totalled 2.56 million tonnes in November, compared to almost zero last year, when the trade war was in full swing.

Funds were net sellers Friday in corn for 3,500 lots and net buyers for 3,000 lots of soybeans and 1,000 lots of wheat.

Chicago does not open a preliminary session this Thursday and trading will not resume until 3:30 p.m. Paris time.

Black Sea market

It is the above-normal temperatures that are drawing the attention of operators to the Black Sea basin at the moment. Indeed, winter cereals do not enter into hibernation and will therefore show more sensitivity in the coming weeks in case of intense cold. On the other hand, if temperatures remain above seasonal normals, the yield potential of winter cereals could be higher than in recent years.