European market

Financial and commodities markets are showing nervousness one week before the US Presidential elections, provoking a decline of the USD and stock markets. Traders hate these periods of uncertainties.

US harvest works are progressing in good conditions, weighing on Chicago’s prices even if a bumper production is already priced in.

On the international stage, USA sold 132 000 t of soybean to China, South Korea bought 63 000 t of corn optional origin and 53 350 t of wheat US origin.

A persisting contrast is still noticeable between export activity at a standstill in France due to the poor harvest and sustained domestic demand, especially for wheat of 74 minimum specific weight. It explains in a large part the existing spread of future markets between Euronext December at 162.75 €/t and CME at 176.50 €/t for the same maturity.

Rapeseed prices are still influenced by the evolution of crude oil and soybean. Plummeting temperatures in France will stop the vegetative development of autumn crops.

In corn, harvest works are still progressing with a confirmation of very disappointing yields.

American market

Tensions are perceptible on US markets a few days before Presidential election.

Harvest works are well progressing in corn and soybean, favored by the current dry conditions in the Corn Belt. Yields are in line or above expectations and it should be confirmed by 9th of November USDA’s report.

Most of these factors are now priced in, leading to some stability of commodities with a limited bearish potential considering low levels of prices. On the other way round, the bullish potential is capped by ample supplies.

Funds were again net sellers of 9 000 lots of corn and 5 000 lots of soybean. In wheat, they were net buyers of 2 500 lots due to short covering.

The likely tightening of the US monetary policy planned or December failed to support the dollar still weakened by the uncertain issue of the US election.

Black Sea market

Ukrainian sunflower producers are still facing an excess of moisture content, pushing them to use driers to lose the 5 points generally above standards. Market rose at the beginning of the week before retreating along with other oilseeds products in major centers. Prices recorded 10 750 UAH TTC (415 $/t), factory delivered. Sunflower remains for Ukrainian producers the most profitable production and it is tempting not to report all collected volumes to the authorities. Two types of transactions exist, the first one in cash with the less honest operators and the second one more official paid by bank transfer. Crushers operating like in Western Europe have to fight a tough competition in offering attractive prices.