European market

The expectations of relaxation in the blockages both of crude oil in the Middle East and of grains in the Black Sea weighed again on the prices of agricultural raw materials yesterday. The decline in Brent crude oil to the lowest since July 16 to $85/barrel is based on a real pause, since the weekend, in the strikes between the United States and Iran. On the contrary, the appeasement in the Black Sea is based only on rumours while the strikes continue on both sides.
The operators are eagerly awaiting the meeting between President Trump and Zelensky scheduled for Tuesday, while yesterday the issue of grain exports to the Black Sea was raised at the UN Security Council but without concrete progress to date.
In this context, wheat prices lost -3.50 €/t at the close yesterday on the September 2026 contract of Euronext. The decline in corn was less significant with only -0.75 € / t in November 2026 in a context of the arrival of a 4th wave of heat wave in France. Rapeseed is the biggest faller with -14.25 €/t in November 2026. More broadly, the vegetable oil sector and the entire oilseed complex are undergoing a very strong correction in the wake of crude oil. 
In its MARS bulletin, the European Commission revised down yesterday all of its estimates and yield prospects in the EU as a direct consequence of the heat waves and the water deficit that are hitting a majority of EU countries.

Soft wheat: 5.88 t/ha against 6 t/ha expected last month
Barley: 5.02 t/ha against 5.09 t/ha expected last month
Corn for grain: 6.93 t/ha against 7.38 t/h expected last month
Rapeseed: 3.14 t/ha against 3.18 t/ha expected last month
Sunflower seed: 2.62 t/ha against 2.75 t/ha expected last month.

American market

The fall in crude oil prices, coupled with the announcement of beneficial rains on the sensitive areas of the Corn Belt, pushed prices down on Chicago for the first session of the week yesterday. Corn and soybeans have been particularly affected while wheat remains sensitive to the evolution of the situation in the Black Sea. 
On the weather side, the forecast is for rain. The American model predicts 10 mm of precipitation at best on the Corn Belt in 7 days while the more generous European model expects more than 20 mm. A noticeable difference, at a time when the state of crops is deteriorating rapidly. 
Indeed, the crop ratings published last night by the USDA show a stronger degradation than expected. In fact, 63% of the areas are judged to be in a "good to excellent" condition, down by -4 points over the week. In Soybeans, 63% of the areas are judged to be in a "good to excellent" condition, down by -3 points over the week. In line with the five-year average, the corn condition is down by -10 points over one year. The state of soybeans remains 2 points higher than the five-year average but falls by -7 points over a year. Unsurprisingly, it is the states in the west of the Corn Belt that are deteriorating the most in the light of the high temperatures and the lack of rainfall of the last 2 weeks.

Black Sea market

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