European market
This Thursday, October 16, trading will be quieter due to the 65th European Commodities Exchange in Berlin. This event brings together several thousand market participants of the agriculture sector from all over Europe and the whole world. It is a unique opportunity for the actors of the sector to discuss the current and future challenges of the trade, and to explore the solutions available to face the volatility of the markets. Argus Media is proud to actively participate in this international meeting, with a dedicated stand and the animation of a market conference. We are at the heart of exchanges, where tomorrow's trends are emerging.
For the moment, prices are adjusting to the rise of the euro/dollar, which is returning to the level of 1.1660, in particular with the renewed prospects of a rate cut by the FED in the United States. The French political situation remains uncertain with a vote of censure which will be closely followed this Thursday at the National Assembly.
The situation on the wheat market and on the corn market remains hesitant and divided. The demand of the moment and the reduced supply on the sellers side limit the decline in prices but the global ample supply pressures prices in the background.
While grains remained pressured, rapeseed was able to mark an increase, buoyed by a firmer global oilseed context. From canola to palm via soybeans, it's time for prices to rebound.
FranceAgriMer published yesterday its latest grains balance sheets with downward revisions on ending stocks 2025/26:
Wheat 2,792 Mt against 3,643 Mt expected last month and 2,479 Mt in 2024/25
Corn 1,953 Mt against 2,225 Mt expected last month and 2,206 Mt in 2024/2025
Barley 1.942 Mt against 2.189 Mt expected last month and 1.135 Mt on 2024/2025.
American market
The US corn market is trying to stabilize at current levels both due to a strong export demand and to restricted sales by farmers busy with the harvest and dissatisfied with prices. This context also favours the repurchase of funds' short positions in Chicago.
Soybeans are also recovering after the recent disappointments related to trade tensions between the United States and China. In the absence of export dynamics, it is the domestic demand that is followed by the operators. The latter thus welcomed yesterday the crushing figure of the NOPA on September of 197.863 million bushels. US crushing activity is well above expectations and up +4.2% over one month and +11.6% over one year.
Only US wheat remains pressured with an export market that seems to be looking for a boost in competitiveness, especially in the face of an increasingly threatening Argentine origin for the coming months.
Black Sea market
Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.
