European market

At the start of the week, trading around 85 $/barrel, WTI crude oil was highlighting an easing of tensions in the Middle East. The situation is now very different, with prices hovering around 95 $/barrel, a sign that frictions persist around the Strait of Hormuz. Regaining its role as a safe haven, the dollar index is moving closer to 100 and is pushing the euro/dollar parity below the 1.17 threshold.

Although geopolitical events could in theory support grain markets, the balance between supply and demand remains such that it neutralizes this potential external support. At this end of the marketing year, the May wheat contract is stabilizing around 195 €/t, attempting to regain some market share on the international stage. Morocco remains, for the time being, the preferred destination, with several vessels loading in French ports and others expected in the coming weeks.

In this context, operators nevertheless keep a close eye on the months ahead, as the rise in costs remains significant for farmers. This vigilance is particularly strong in the fertilizer segment, as India has just contracted, through its latest tender, 2.5 mn t of urea at price levels significantly higher than those of the previous purchase. While this factor is likely to lend firmness to prices, the European Commission has announced that it will present a “fertilizer strategy” plan within one month.

For the 2026 harvest, attention remains focused on the weather, as rainfall is scarce. The current water deficit is being closely monitored, especially as weather models are forecasting little precipitation in the coming days.

Finally, it is worth noting the return of rapeseed on Euronext above the 500 €/t zone on the August contract, in the wake of an oilseed complex that continues to show firmness.

American market

HRW wheat is once again returning to its contract highs and is now hovering around 6.55 $/bu. Geopolitical tensions are adding to still-problematic crop conditions across the winter wheat belt, with a persistent moisture deficit over a large part of the US Plains. The coming days will be decisive in stemming the decline in yield potential, especially as some much-needed rainfall is forecast by the end of the month.

Further north, corn planting is now under close scrutiny. While the pace of fieldwork is a key factor at this time of year, the size of planted area will be even more critical. Indeed, the survey conducted by the USDA in early March failed to convince many operators, who consider the response rate insufficient to accurately reflect on-the-ground reality. As a result, against a backdrop of rising input costs, notably urea, downward adjustments could emerge in upcoming acreage reports.

On the trade front, corn demand remains strong, as illustrated by a new exceptional sale of 130,000 t to an unknown destination.

In the soybean market, a wait-and-see attitude prevails pending greater visibility on acreage. Nevertheless, crushing activity is running at full capacity and continues to offer margins to operators, supported by the ongoing firmness of the oilseed complex. Soybean oil is indeed continuing its strong performance, underpinned by robust demand observed in recent weeks.

Black Sea market

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