European market
The Euronext market recorded a price increase yesterday, despite a further rise in the euro/dollar exchange rate. This morning, the rate surpassed the 1.1850 mark, reaching its highest level since September 2021. This strengthening movement is being closely monitored by European exporters, who are assessing the competitiveness gap between European origins and numerous global competitors at the start of the new campaign. The latest figures from the European Union, although still partial, highlight a decline in export volumes compared to the same period in the previous campaign—despite an increase in European production this year. The French Ministry of Agriculture has revised upward the national wheat production, now estimated at 33.3 million tonnes. Conversely, the maize production potential has been revised downward compared to last month. As harvests progress, the real impact of the summer’s dry conditions will be better assessed. Regarding sunflower, harvest volumes have declined by another 0.1 million tonnes compared to the ministry’s previous estimates, with production now expected at 1.5 million tonnes. However, this drop is offset by an upward revision of 0.1 million tonnes for rapeseed, whose harvest is now estimated at 4.6 million tonnes. Market participants in the rapeseed sector remain primarily focused on export activity from Ukraine, following the announcement of an export tax. As a result, the rapeseed market rose yesterday, both on the physical market and on Euronext.
American market
Grain prices, along with soybean prices, recorded an increase yesterday in Chicago. The current decline of the U.S. dollar—driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut anticipated this Wednesday—is providing fresh support for U.S. origins on the export market. Mechanically, a weaker dollar boosts the valuation of agricultural commodities in the United States. Corn futures for December 2025 reached a new intraday high, surpassing $4.31 per bushel and returning to their highest level since early July. However, by the end of the session, prices slightly eased, dipping back below $4.30 per bushel. The start of the corn harvest is reinforcing early doubts about the record yield potential, with discrepancies already observed in the earliest harvesting zones. Wheat also joined the upward movement yesterday. Prices rose for the fourth consecutive session, climbing back above $5.30 per bushel for the December 2025 contract. Chicago prices are once again testing a key resistance zone that has held for over a month. Soybean oil prices experienced a sharp rise, pulling up soybean prices and, to a lesser extent, U.S. soybean meal prices. The EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) announced the launch of a consultation regarding the reallocation of biofuel blending obligations. The volume in question concerns exemptions granted to small refineries. Depending on the reallocation rate adopted, a rebound in domestic demand could be felt as early as the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Black Sea market
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