European market
While waiting for details on the next government of France and especially on its next budget, the euro/dollar continues to weaken. A low since August 5 was touched yesterday at 1.1540 and this against a close at 1.1740 last Friday.
This movement has been gradually supporting European grain prices since the beginning of the week. French wheat in particular has been able to gain export competitiveness against its competitors from the Black Sea. In this context, the tender launched yesterday for the purchase of 100,000 t of wheat by Tunisia is being closely scrutinized. A context that stimulates some short position buying back on Euronext with a gain of + 2.50 € /t for the December 2025 contract which closes at 190.50 € /t at the highest for 2 weeks.
However, the progress remains modest with +2.75 € /t since the beginning of the week. Corn is performing more with +4.75 €/t since the beginning of the week on the November 2025 contract. It lines up 6 consecutive sessions of increase and also closes at the highest since last September 25th. The movement is also driven by a flow of imports that is slow to materialize in Europe as well as by production disappointments in the west and south-west of France.
Nevertheless, rapeseed is responsible for the strongest increase since the beginning of the week. The November 2025 contract on Euronext concretizes an increase of + 13.75 € /t since Monday with a closing last night at 471.75 € /t at the highest since last September 24th. Beyond the decline of the euro, this dynamic is maintained by a situation that remains chaotic on Ukrainian rapeseed exports and by a persistent firmness on vegetable oils in Europe under the leadership of sunflower oil.
American market
We should, this Friday, be commenting on the conclusions, news and surprises of the USDA's monthly WASDE report. But because of the shutdown in the United States, federal activities have stalled. If the USDA is no longer there to guide the market, private analysts continue with assiduity their work of evaluation and projection of supply and demand in the world. In any case, it is the daily work of the Argus Media research team that will inform your decision-making through its latest S&Ds Argus AgriMarkets Outlook report to be tested by clicking here.
While waiting for new elements, prices are changing little but are nevertheless heading downwards. The strength of the dollar has been an element of pressure since the beginning of the week on Chicago. It is in this context that wheat prices are falling.
A slight decline is also observed in corn and soybeans where the traditional harvest pressure is also exerted. China is also leading the discussions. In corn, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture has lowered its forecast for 2025/26 imports by 1 Mt to 6 Mt. In fact, there is always talk of Chinese purchases suspended during the negotiations. President Trump also reaffirmed yesterday his desire to resolve this problem during his next meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping.
Black Sea market
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