European market

Volatility is reduced on the European grain market as the end of the year approaches. Prices are sliding downwards. They decrease in a context of firmness of the euro / dollar now settled at more than 1.1700 and fragility of crude oil with a barrel more and more often below $60 in New York. However, the geopolitical context remains delicate, in particular due to the increasing tensions on ships in the Black Sea.
Sinking into the weekend and year-end depression, Euronext wheat finally managed to be up at the very end of the session on Friday. The progress remains nevertheless minimal with a gain of + 0.5 € /t to 189 € /t closing for March 2026. As at the beginning of the month, the area of 187-188 € /t acts as support.
A new low was reached on Friday on the 2026 harvest with Euronext September 2026 wheat passing below €195/t before rebounding at the end of the session. The prospects are favorable for the new campaign as illustrated by the latest Cereobs report from FranceAgriMer:
Wheat: 96% good to excellent, down -1 point on the week and against 86% last year to date
Winter barley: 96% good to excellent, unchanged over the week and compared to 81% last year to date.
The corn market is gradually down in France with a March 2026 contract on Euronext which returns under the support of 186 € /t for the first time in almost two months.
Rapeseed also marked a decrease. The enthusiasm generated by the approval of the REDIII directive in Germany is fading. The bearish mood on the international oilseed complex and in particular on the soybean complex dominates. This is how the February 2026 contract falls by €3/t and closes at €475.75/t.

American market

Despite the support offered by the decline of the dollar in the wake of the rate cut by the Fed, the Friday night closed down for prices in Chicago in the context of the lack of new support elements.
The arrival of ample wheat production in the Southern Hemisphere worries US wheat in particular, which lacks competitiveness on the international scene.
In fact, the announcement made by the USDA on Friday of a new exceptional sale of 250,000 t to an unknown destination was not enough to spare the market from the traditional weekend profit-taking.
The main bearish force was mainly soybeans. The announcement of an exceptional sale by the USDA of 132,000 t of US soybeans destined for China fails to stem the disappointment of the operators in the face of the postponement of the negotiated purchase obligations.
Still in the phase of catching up with the 6 weeks of shutdown, the USDA will publish this Monday the figures of weekly US export sales for the week of November 20th. This figure will again be eagerly awaited by operators.

Black Sea market

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