European market
Like prices in the United States, which had reached new highs last week, wheat prices on Euronext moved lower yesterday. Turkey’s announcement that it is seeking a solution to secure grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia is keeping market participants alert to a possible change in the current deadlock. September should see a pickup in port export activity in Europe, and also in France, due to adjustments made to loading programs to reflect the origins actually available. The downturn in wheat prices is being observed across all Euronext contracts, although the decline is less pronounced on the nearby Sep 26 contract, which is approaching expiry and whose spread with the next contract is narrowing slightly. In this uncertain environment, it is worth noting another session of strong activity in the Euronext options market, with more than 21,000 lots traded yesterday across all maturities.
Market participants are also monitoring the price spread between corn and wheat. Corn prices in France, against a backdrop of expectations for a sharp drop in production, remain at elevated levels to encourage a reduction in usage or substitution with other grains where possible. The Nov 26 corn contract on Euronext, despite posting a decline, remains close to its contract highs.
Rapeseed prices also recorded a slight decline yesterday, for both old and new crop. The recent rainfall seen in France has provided reassurance in certain production areas regarding sowing operations and, for already planted acreage, emergence conditions. However, participants in this sector remain cautious about the area that will actually be planted for the 2027 harvest. In Australia, for the 2026-2027 marketing year, the latest estimates from ABARES point to a smaller 2026 crop. Despite the increase in planted area, Australian production is expected to reach 7.3mn t, down around 5 % from last year due to lower yields, particularly in the western part of the country.
American market
Wheat prices in Chicago started the week on a weaker note, breaking the momentum of the previous consecutive sessions of gains, during which prices had reached new marketing year highs. The Dec 26 SRW contract nevertheless remains very close to its recent high, still trading above 7.70 $/bu. Spring wheat harvests continue to progress in the United States, where the USDA estimates that 23 % of the area remains to be harvested. Turkey’s announcement that it is seeking to propose a solution to Ukraine and Russia aimed at securing grain transport in the Black Sea led to some easing in prices yesterday. At this stage, nothing concrete or operational has been communicated on the matter, but market participants remain attentive to any proposal that could unlock the situation and facilitate the flow of new crop supplies. A decline was also observed on the HRW wheat contract, which moved back below 8.40 $/bu by the close of trading on the Dec 26 contract.
Corn prices reached another intraday high yesterday and are now seeking to stabilize around their highest levels. The Dec 26 contract traded above 5.40 $/bu yesterday before eventually closing the day below that threshold at 5.3775 $/bu. Regarding crop conditions, the situation remains stable, with 57 % of the area rated “good to excellent” by the USDA, unchanged from the previous week. In a context of uncertainty surrounding Black Sea corn export capacity, traders remain focused on the completion of Brazil’s second crop harvest as well as the start of planting for the new campaign.
Stability was also noted in soybeans yesterday. The Nov 26 contract closed at the same level as Friday’s session, although a new contract high was traded during the session, very close to 12.95 $/bu, a level exceeded in early trading this morning. A further sale of 159,000 t of soybeans was reported by the USDA yesterday for the 2026/2027 marketing year, with no destination specified. Since the beginning of August, export sales have maintained a good pace, particularly thanks to several successive sales to China. In soybean oil, despite the EPA’s announcement granting small refineries exemptions from blending requirements for 2025, firm crude oil prices continue to provide support. Vegetable oil prices are rebounding and gradually moving closer to the levels traded last month.
Black Sea market
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