European market

You’d have to go back to the last days of July to find the euro/dollar below 1.1500. That’s once again the case, with a low yesterday at 1.1473. The market is uncertain about a potential rate hike by the Fed in December, while the dollar is regaining its role as a safe haven, especially after Donald Trump scored a series of trade successes last week in Asia.

This 1.7 % drop in the euro/dollar over the past week is supporting european grains. They continue to benefit from producers holding back on sales and from domestic demand within the EU, all in a context of reduced imports from Ukraine across all products.

Although market enthusiasm remains limited, prices have shown encouraging signs of recovery over the past two weeks. Enough to raise new questions about marketing strategies.

Euronext December 2025 wheat finishes at the top of the podium, in sympathy with the continued rise seen in its American counterpart in Chicago.

Corn, driven by the expiration of the November 2025 contract this Wednesday, November 5, is also making gains. It closes up +0.75 €/t at 189.50 €/t on March 2026 and is once again testing last week’s highs.

Rapeseed showed more caution. With prices returning to their highest levels since late August, in the 480–485 €/t range on the February 2026 Euronext contract, sellers have been coming back since the end of last week. Despite this and despite a downward correction in soybeans in Chicago, February 2026 rapeseed limits its decline to -0.50 €/t, closing at 489.50 €/t.

American market

After their recent and very strong performance, U.S. stock indices are undergoing a downward correction. That’s all it takes to weigh on the entire American market. Grains were particularly affected yesterday by this gloomy atmosphere, especially as the dollar index just jumped to its highest level in three months.

Only wheat is resisting this reversal, continuing its upward momentum amid rumors of U.S. wheat purchases by China and massive short-covering by financial operators.

Profit-taking therefore weighed on corn and soybeans yesterday. For soybeans, operators are waiting for concrete signs from China, while Brazilian soybeans are proving more competitive on the export market. It’s worth noting that the upcoming campaign is once again expected to be prolific, with Abiove, the Brazilian vegetable oil association, giving a first production estimate of 178.5 mnt for 2025/2026, compared to 177.6 mnt from Conab and 171.8 mnt in 2024/2025 according to Abiove.

Black Sea market

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