European market

Wheat prices on Euronext crumbled after the result of the GASC tender that only retained Black Sea origins. 465 000 t of wheat have been purchased on following prices:

• 120 000 t of Ukrainian wheat at 232.35 $/CIF
• 345 000 t of Russian wheat in a range of 231.98 to 232.34 $/t CIF

French origins have been penalized by the freight differential between Black Sea and western Europe.

On a climatic point of view, heavy rains in the west part of France continue to disrupt harvest works and jeopardize last winter crops sowing. This is in Great Britain where the situation is the most at risk with less than half of surfaces planted until now.

On the international stage, beyond the Egyptian tender, we can note a sale of 129 000 t of US soybean to China and a feed barley tender from Saudi Arabia for shipments February to March.

According the Buenos Aires exchange, the wheat production in Argentina would be limited to 18.5 Mt this season, this is matching with our own prevision. As a reminder, the USDA was stuck to a prevision of 20 Mt in its last report. It is possible to see a reintroduction of export tariffs in Argentina from next spring after the recent Presidential election.

Rapeseed prices are continuing their consolidation move like the palm oil. In Canada, a cold snap is benefitting to canola prices.

American market

With little progress in the trade negotiations between USA and China, prices did not evolve a lot in Chicago yesterday.

Poultry tariffs have been cancelled by China, but this is more due to the pork crisis and the need of animal protein that has pushed meat prices to skyrocket in the country.

Helped by favorable conditions, soybean and corn harvests have gained momentum this week, reducing the outlook to see a high percentage of non-harvested areas before winter.

Yesterday, financial funds were net buyers in 2 000 lots of corn and 3 000 lots of soybean. They were net sellers in 3 000 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

In Russia, local analysts are showing some optimism about the conditions of winter crops. Mild temperatures recorded in October and in the beginning of November have favored the emergence and the development of the crops. This type of weather could become problematic if the snow is not falling before the beginning of winter that can start at any moment with a fall of temperatures until -10°C. In some parts of the south of Russia the hydric deficit is also a bit concerning.

Until now, Russian weather forecasters are anticipating a rather mild winter. The increase in the proportion of winter crops acreage is the consequence of last years’ climatic warming in the country.

Our last production estimations for Russia and Ukraine are available in the Black Sea Highlight that has been released yesterday.