European market

Amid the current geopolitical turmoil, currencies are experiencing turbulent times. From the Malaysian ringgit to the Japanese yen, all are affected by statements from global leaders. Among them, Donald Trump stands out as a major player, with a notable impact on the greenback. The dollar index is falling to its lowest level in eight years, pushing the euro/dollar parity toward 1.20, its highest since June 2021.

Such a level for the pair forces European prices to adjust in order to preserve their competitiveness. This is what happened with a pullback in Euronext wheat for the Mar contract, now close to the 187 €/t area. Although French export demand is far from weak, strong performance will be needed to compete with other origins, in a context of abundant supplies among the main exporters.

In Argentina, while wheat has reached a record crop, operators are now focusing on corn and soybean acreage. Part of the country is facing a moisture deficit combined with high temperatures. The good pace observed during planting allows operators to remain confident, but some concerns are nonetheless emerging across the plains.

On the international scene, note Tunisia’s new tender for soft wheat and durum wheat.

For oilseeds, the key information this week comes from China, which announced it secured ten canola vessels from Canada. Attention now turns to Donald Trump’s reaction, after he threatened his neighbor with retaliation in the event of a trade agreement with China.

American market

Markets remain on hold ahead of Donald Trump’s speech in Iowa. While migration policy is at the heart of the debate, announcements regarding the biofuel markets are expected. Speculation has been running high following recent releases, which is supporting soybeans as well as corn. The coming hours are set to be decisive on this matter.

In terms of competitiveness, US origins are benefiting from the sharp drop in the dollar, which is also lending some firmness to the broader commodity complex. However, fundamentals remain broadly unconvincing, with a comfortable global balance sheet.

On the international scene, the USDA nonetheless reported the exceptional sale of 110 000 t of corn and 306 000 t of sorghum to an unknown destination.

Beyond geopolitics, South American weather will remain a key point of attention for markets over the medium term. It is worth noting that the cold wave currently affecting the United States is largely offset by sufficient and protective snow cover.

Black Sea market

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