Pre-opening 29/05/2020
Paris Chicago
Wheatunch -1 cent
Cornunch+2 cents
Rapeseedunch to -1€/t
Soybean-4 cents
Indexes 29/05/2020
€/$1.1136 $
Oil WTI35.49 $/b

Wheat (€/t)
Sep 20188.25+1.00
Dec 20190.25+1.00
Mar 21192.00+0.75
May 21193.00+0.50
Sep 21187.25+1.25
Corn (€/t)
Jun 20167.00-0.50
Aug 20168.75-0.50
Nov 20165.75+0.00
Jan 21169.00+0.25
Mar 21171.50+0.50
Rapeseed (€/t)
Aug 20369.75+0.50
Nov 20374.25+0.25
Feb 21375.50+0.25
May 21378.00+1.00
Aug 21366.00+0.00
Nitrogen solution (€/t)
Sep 20152.00+0.00
Nov 20152.00+0.00
Mar 21152.00+0.00
Jun 21152.00+0.00
Sep 21152.00+0.00

29/05/2020

Wheat (€/t) : 1144 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
300Call Sep 20182.009.71
300Call Sep 20192.005.13
100Call Dec 20189.009.70
2Call Dec 20200.007.00
2Call Dec 20205.005.50
50Call Dec 20215.003.10
20Call Mar 21191.0010.50
4Call May 21194.0010.98
300Put Sep 20182.003.46
8Put Sep 20190.008.00
50Put Dec 20175.002.83
1Put Dec 20180.004.70
1Put Dec 20189.009.40
5Put Mar 21189.009.00
1Put Mar 21191.0010.70
Corn (€/t) : 50 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
10Call Aug 20173.001.85
20Call Nov 20175.002.64
20Put Nov 20165.005.29
Rapeseed (€/t) : 201 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
50Call Nov 20370.0011.42
100Call Nov 20385.005.62
1Put Nov 20360.003.10
50Put Nov 20370.007.17

Wheat (¢/b)
Jul 20520.7500-1.2500
Sep 20523.5000-1.5000
Dec 20532.2500-1.5000
Mar 21540.2500-2.0000
May 21542.7500-2.0000
Corn (¢/b)
Jul 20325.7500+1.0000
Sep 20330.0000+1.0000
Dec 20338.7500+0.2500
Mar 21350.2500+0.2500
May 21357.2500+0.2500
Soybean (¢/b)
Jul 20840.7500+5.0000
Aug 20843.5000+5.2500
Sep 20845.5000+5.5000
Nov 20851.7500+5.7500
Jan 21855.5000+6.0000
Soy meal ($/st)
Jul 20283.2000+1.1000
Aug 20285.0000+0.9000
Sep 20286.7000+0.9000
Oct 20288.4000+0.9000
Dec 20291.8000+0.7000
Soy oil (¢/lb)
Jul 2027.3800+0.2800
Aug 2027.5500+0.3000
Sep 2027.7100+0.2800
Oct 2027.8700+0.2700
Dec 2028.2100+0.2800

01/06/2020

Physical (€/t)
Durum wheat delivered La Pallice Spot - July 2020 basis265.00+0.00
Wheat delivered Rouen - July 2020 basis184.00+1.00
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2019 basis163.00+0.00
Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2019 basis164.00+0.00
Feed barley delivered Rouen - July 2020 basis165.00+0.00
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2020 basis178.00+0.00
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot - Flat - 2020 harvest370.00+0.00
Sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot - Flat - 2019 harvest335.00+0.00
Feed peas FOB Creil Spot - August 2020 basis220.00+0.00
Analysis 29/05/2020

European market

There was little change yesterday in the grain market, while oilseeds marked a sharp decline.

The water deficit that persists in France and a large part of Europe supports prices, while activity on the international scene remains weak. Only Japan bought a little more than 112,000 t of milling wheat from the USA, Australia and Canada yesterday. It’s still raining on the Black Sea basin, suggesting a good corn harvest in Ukraine, that could continue to be the leading corn producer of the European continent.

The euro continues to rise against the dollar, posted at 1.1090 this morning, welcoming Europe's intentions to revive its economy, by injecting a lot of liquidity. Crude oil remains relatively stable at 33.20 $/b on New York.

Wheat planting is accelerating in Argentina in favour of milder weather, to date, 13.4% of sowings are already done according to the Buenos Aires stock exchange.

The European Commission has significantly revised down its wheat production estimates to 121.5 Mt from 125.8 Mt last month, compared to 130.8 Mt last year. In this context, the Commission displays an estimate of third-country exports at 26.5 Mt, compared to 32.5 Mt for the 2019/2020 Mt. Upcoming barley production is displayed at 56.2 Mt and corn production at 71.4 Mt. Rapeseed production is expected to be almost as poor as last year, at 15.6 Mt compared to 15.25 Mt in 2019.

Globally, the IGC revises up its estimate of world wheat production to 766 Mt and that of corn to 1.169 billion tonnes.

Rapeseed prices lost ground yesterday, against the decrease of soybean, canola and palm prices.

American market

Good performance in wheat and corn prices was seen yesterday in Chicago, in the context of the return of dry weather giving fear of water stress for the coming weeks.

The funds are very short in corn and are usually buying their positions in this weather market period, even if the fundamentals predict an abundant supply worldwide for the next season.

Soybeans were penalized by a rebound in crude oil stocks and by profit-taking on the palm. Finally, traders fear that tensions with China will once again make the latter turn towards South American origins.

The funds were net buyers yesterday for 28,000 lots of corn and 11,000 lots of wheat. They were net sellers for 3,000 lots of soybeans.

 

Black Sea market

Yesterday, at the conference "Grain & Maritime Days" in Odesa, the president of the Ukrainian grain association of exporters announced an upward revision of Ukrainian wheat production to 26.7Mt following the beneficial rains observed in May.

Thus the range of wheat production estimates in Ukraine remains very wide, the most pessimistic expecting 23Mt while the most optimistic anticipate a harvest at 28Mt (Crimea included). In this context, the results of our crop-tour which will be carried out between June 15 and 19 in Ukraine are already awaited by the operators. We will keep our usual route and take the time to assess the situation in the southern oblasts (Zaporizhia, Kherson, Odesa) where the most significant yield cuts are expected compared to last year.

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