European market
Prices managed to rebound from their recent lows, erasing part of the decline recorded in recent days. This short-term shift in momentum comes against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions. While talks aimed at easing strains over the Russia-Ukraine issue dominated in recent weeks, the tone has now changed. Russia is accusing Ukraine of being responsible for the destruction of a vessel in the Black Sea and is threatening to disrupt the smooth flow of maritime traffic. That was enough to prompt financial operators to trim some of their short positions and for a new risk premium to settle in the market.
From a fundamental standpoint, however, wheat balances remain comfortable. While Algeria’s tender is raising hopes for certain European origins, it is doing the same for Argentinians. The competitiveness of South American offers should indeed allow them to regain market share in North Africa. In Morocco as well, competition is intensifying after yesterday’s Euronext rally, while Argentine offers are holding steady below 210 $/t FOB.
Corn is following the trend, although operators are showing some caution ahead of crucial reports next week. All eyes will be on USDA yield estimates, still considered overly optimistic by many players.
In oilseeds, palm oil continues its retracement after the recent drop. The brief dip below 4,000 ringgits/t now seems far away given the current momentum, with prices in Kuala Lumpur hovering near 4,200 ringgits/t. This recovery is providing arguments for a rapeseed rebound, which is still trading within a 475-485 €/t range on the February Euronext contract.
American market
Financial operators trimmed part of their short positions during yesterday’s session following statements from the Kremlin. Although these announcements have yet to be followed by concrete action, and negotiations remain ongoing, markets have once again priced in a slight risk premium.
At the same time, the loading schedule for U.S. soybeans bound for China gave fresh support to the U.S. market. However, this remains a key point of concern, as the Middle Kingdom is still far from the target set last month under the trade agreement. Moreover, with the prospect of another abundant harvest, Brazilian players are expected to quickly shake things up. Buying interest is already emerging for early 2026, which could compete with U.S. offers.
In the short term, attention will turn to upcoming reports, notably from Conab and the USDA. Numerous adjustments are expected, particularly regarding the U.S. corn balance sheet. These elements should keep markets active in the coming weeks, ahead of the traditional year-end lull.
Black Sea market
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