European market
Wheat prices lost ground yesterday in the wake of Chicago. On the physical market, little variations were recorded. Long-awaited rains over the north of France and Europe have been heterogeneous, mainly in the form of thunderstorms. This type of weather should continue until the end of the week.
On financial markets, the crude oil stay on the front of the stage with prices falling again this morning to deal around 11 $/b on the US market. The euro remains fairly stable at 1.0825 against the US dollar.
On the international market, Saudi Arabia bought 655 000 t of wheat at 233.30 $/t, optional origins. This level of prices is not suggesting that French origins could have been retained. It is more likely to see Russian or Baltic origins.
According the European crop monitoring service MARS, the soft wheat yield for the next European crop could be displayed at 5.87 t/ha, that would be -2.3% under last year and -1.7% compared to the 5-year average. For the winter barley, the average yield is seen at 5.92 t/ha vs. 5.91 t/ha last month and for spring barley at only 4.03 t/ha. In rapeseed, the average yield is seen at 3.14 t/ha vs. 3.18 t/ha estimated one month ago.
European wheat exports have amounted to 27.97 Mt on April 26 and from the start of the current marketing year vs. 17.16 Mt last year at the same period. Barley exports were 6.13 Mt compared to 3.77 Mt, and corn imports were 17.08 Mt compared to 20.12 Mt last year.
Palm oil is testing its 9-month lows, under the influence of oil and soybeans. This is also pushing rapeseed prices to a slight decline despite the poor prospects for the European harvest.
American market
US markets retreated yesterday on all products. Corn prices lost ground in the context of the ethanol crisis and favourable conditions for plantings in the US Corn Belt.
For the wheat, the subdued demand with a crisis in the poultry industry is weakening prices. Crop conditions have deteriorated from last week with 54% of crops considered as good to excellent vs. 57% last week.
The soybean has been spared by the selloff, the export activity is resuming toward China and some delays in Brazil harvesting have been recorded due to the rain.
Yesterday, funds were net sellers in 20 000 lots of corn, 4 000 lots of soybean and 4 500 lots of wheat.
Black Sea market
Finally, Ukraine has decided not to ban its corn exports until the end of the season. During a meeting held by the Deputy Minister of the Economy in charge of agriculture and representatives of the animal industry, the statement was made that the country currently does not know a shortage of corn. Since October 1, the country has exported more than 24Mt of corn against an export target set by the USA at 32Mt or 30.5Mt by Agritel. Over the past week, FOB Ukraine corn prices have declined significantly to 173 $/t. We should also note that Ukraine is on the way to increasing the areas dedicated to corn by + 8% this spring. The country is heading towards its third consecutive record for corn production.
