Analysis 09/03/2020

European market

Last Friday, commodities prices fell sharply due to mounting fears linked to the spreading of the coronavirus around the world and its consequences on the demand. This morning, crude oil prices are collapsing by about -30% to get back on lowest levels seen in February 2016 below 30 $/b on the WTI! OPEC and Russia failed to agree on a reduction of the production. Saudi Arabia is now starting a war of prices to try to push to an agreement. Another key factor, the surge of the euro versus dollar at 1.14 on the back of further anticipations to see the Fed cutting again its rates to support the US economy.

Asian stock markets are plunging this morning and European indexes should follow.

Very rainy climatic conditions in France should continue this week increasing the current delays in spring plantings, especially for the spring barley. According FranceAgrimer, only 33% of these surfaces are seeded vs 88% last year to date. In the north of France, 7% are only achieved vs 82% last year at the same period.

Penalized by the fall of crude oil, the palm oil is plunging by -10% this morning in Kuala Lumpur and the rapeseed should be also hit this morning on Euronext.

On the international stage, USA sold 135 000 t of corn to Japan.

Markets should be highly volatile this morning pushing to cautiousness.

American market

US markets are not staying away from the current turmoil caused by the fall of the world demand. It is still uncertain to predict the size of this potential as there is both a decline in the demand and also logistical disruptions.

Most penalized products are those having a relation with crude oil like the corn and soybean used in biofuels. The wheat is impacted by the funds’ position which has now become short after being long for several weeks.

Soybean imports by China have surged by +14.2% in the two first months of the year compared to last year along with the recovery of hog herd.

Black Sea market

Markets are closed in Ukraine and Russia due to International’s Women Day