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Settlement price 23/01/2015
Milling Wheat - €/t
Rapeseed - €/t
Corn - €/t
Malting barley - €/t
Options traded 23 January 2015
Milling Wheat : 0 contract
Rapeseed : 0 contract
Corn : 0 contract
Malting barley : 0 contract
|Wheat France||Wheat Chicago||Feed Barley France||Malt.Barley
|Euro / Dollar|
Newsletter Friday 23 January 2015
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Euro /dollar: 1.135
CRB index: 218.34 points
Crude oil: 47.22 $/b
Training : Futures markets and options + Market overview : New ! The 21-22-23th January 2015 in Paris(in English)
Training : Futures markets and options : New ! The 19-20th February 2015 in Madrid (in Spanish)
Wheat: +1 €
Corn: + 1 €
Rapeseed: +1 €
Wheat: - 1 cents
Soybean: + 2 cents
Yesterday, the ECB has announced a fond-buying programme worth 60 billion euro per month, lasting from March 2015 until September 2016. This way a total of 1 140 billion euro will be injected into the market. This should facilitate access to loans for businesses and individuals. As a first result of this measure, the euro has clearly declined and broke the support zone at 1.15 $/€ and reached the level of 1.1330 this morning.
Exporters from the euro zone increase their competitiveness and European wheat remains cheapest on the global scale.
Brussels has issued export licences for 728 000t during last week, taking this campaign’s total up to 16.1 Mt (16.7 Mt in 2013/14). Additionally, licenses for 286 000t of barley took the total volume of 2014/15 up to 4.8 Mt which equals last year’s level.
In the Ukraine, the situation starts to degrade again, having the rebels who took over the airport at Donetsk. Once more the country stands on the edge of a serious geopolitical and financial crisis which could rapidly lead to further difficulties, especially with respect to logistics and export capabilities.
Furthermore, the IGS has revised upwards the global corn production to 992 Mt compared to last month’s estimation of 982 Mt.
Rapeseed prices are continuously pressured by the low level of crude oil prices and on top a weak palm oil price during this week despite the adverse weather conditions in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Wheat, harvest 2014, quotes at 191 €/t on a July basis for a quality 76/220/11, delivery Rouen.
Chicago wheat trades to an equivalent of 168.80 €/t for March 2015 delivery.
Durum wheat trades at 390 and 400 €/t nominal delivered Port La Nouvelle.
Rapeseed quotes at 360 €/t nominal FOB Moselle harvest 2014, January 2015 delivery.
Feed barley, harvest 2014, quotes at 177 €/t July basis for standard quality, delivery Rouen.
Malting barley, Sebastian variety, harvest 2014, quotes at 195 €/t July basis, FOB Creil.
Sunflower, harvest 2014, quotes at 362 €/t nominal equivalent Saint-Nazaire.
Corn, 2014 harvest, trades at 153 €/t on a July 2014 basis, FOB Bordeaux
The feeding pea market trades at 250 €/t nominal, August 2014 basis, FOB Creil
The American market slightly decreased yesterday, facing an abundant offer on the one hand and less dynamic demand on the other hand. The latter is illustrated by the cancelation of deliveries of soybeans to China, who turns to Brazilian offers, which is a rather habitual move at this period of the year.
The increase of the dollar contributes also to a falling on prices with difficulties to export for deficit in competitiveness.
Funds were net sellers yesterday for 7 000 contracts in corn, 3 000 contracts in soybean and 1000 contracts in wheat.
Ethanol stocks continue to increase in the USA, this week at 20.4 millions of barrels, an augmentation of 158 000 barrels in comparison with last week, because of oil prices falling.
Prices provided below are now for the 2014 harvest.
Corn March 2015, closed at 3.8375 $/bushel, -4.25 cents from previous day.
Wheat March 2015, closed at 5.3375 $/bushel, -3.00 cents from previous day.
Soybeans March 2015, closed at 9.7675 $/bushel, - 6.75 cents from previous day.
Soy meal March 2015, closed at 330.1 $/short tons, -0.40 $ from previous day.
Soy oil March 2015, closed at 31.97 cents/lb, -0.44 cents from previous day.
Ukraine delivered 1 Mt of corn to China since the beginning of the season. Some sources were thinking that it would be cancelled during December for 20% of the volumes. The risk was on 11 cargos admit the new agriculture minister recently.
In the minister, discussions between authorities and traders are continuing. Until the end of the month, they should sign a memorandum between both parts. For some persons, the agriculture minister is thinking to impose exports restrictions on Ukrainian cereals. On the first stage, wheat exports would be limited to 10 Mt, although 11 Mt could be loaded without impacting ending stocks. Barley and corn exports could also be limited.
Have a good day
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Agritel is a society dealing with price risk management for agricultural commodities.