The prices rose yesterday on Euronext on the back of downward movement of the euro against the dollar. The euro was trading around 1.12 before nevertheless rebounding later. This decrease has led European prices to adjust up yesterday both in the various physical markets and on Euronext futures market.
Only 60,000 t of Russian wheat was purchased as a result of Egypt's tender. This marks out FOB prices from Russia which are slightly higher compared to the proposals of July 9 for another call for tenders by the GASC. In France, where the harvest is progressing, the return of supplies makes it possible to meet the needs for loading, thus boosting activity in the port area, particularly in soft wheat and also in barley.
The hot weather announced next week forces operators to be cautious especially on corn crops. The November 2019 maturity price on Euronext thus rises above 176 €/, reaching the level of the beginning of July.
Progress in the rapeseed harvest confirms the idea of weak production potential in Europe. Prices are firming for the August 2019 contract on Euronext and returning to trade on values close to the highest levels since last October. The next deadlines also progress without however coming back to negotiate on the highest levels registered for the same period.
Corn prices are stabilizing, in a context where weather forecasts are still announcing the return of high temperatures this weekend. So, uncertainty about corn yields in the USA is added to concerns about the acreage.
Weather conditions have also to be followed to see the potential of soybean production. For the moment, the soybean prices in the USA are decreasing, thus erasing the entire upward movement of the past week.
Indeed, the prices for November 2019 contract are back to test the support level of 9 $/b.
Chicago's wheat market is also flat during this harvest. The September 2019 deadline stabilizes however above the support level of 5 $/b.
Black Sea market
The export sales on the 2019/20 campaign began on July 1 and are gaining momentum in Ukraine. According to the state tax authorities, as for July 17, wheat exports amounted to 322 Kt, 75 Kt more than last year at the same date.
Since the beginning of July, barley exports have reached 327 Kt, an increase of 78 Kt compared to 2018/19. As a reminder, according to the latest July USDA forecast, Ukrainian wheat exports in 2019/20 are expected to reach 19 Mt. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, barley export volume would amount to 4.2 Mt. In addition, Ukrainian corn continues to be actively exported. In the first half of July, corn exports reached 1.038 Mt, an increase of 756 Kt vs the same period last year.