Pre-opening 10/07/2020
Paris Chicago
Wheatunch- 2 cents
Cornunchunch
Rapeseed- 1 €/t to - 2 €/t
Soybean+ 1 cent
Indexes 09/07/2020
€/$1.1342 $
Oil WTI39.62 $/b

Wheat (€/t)
Sep 20187.75+0.75
Dec 20188.75+1.00
Mar 21191.00+1.25
May 21192.00+1.00
Sep 21186.50+0.00
Corn (€/t)
Aug 20175.75+2.00
Nov 20166.75+1.25
Jan 21169.25+0.75
Mar 21171.75+1.25
Jun 21174.75+1.50
Rapeseed (€/t)
Aug 20385.25+0.25
Nov 20383.50+1.50
Feb 21383.50+2.00
May 21382.75+2.25
Aug 21368.50+2.00
Nitrogen solution (€/t)
Sep 20152.00+0.00
Nov 20152.00+0.00
Mar 21152.00+0.00
Jun 21152.00+0.00
Sep 21152.00+0.00

09/07/2020

Wheat (€/t) : 12285 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
1Call Sep 20178.0010.40
50Call Sep 20187.005.07
408Call Sep 20188.005.50
350Call Sep 20189.004.17
210Call Sep 20190.004.00
2000Call Sep 20195.002.25
50Call Sep 20197.001.82
50Call Sep 20199.001.49
4Call Dec 20187.008.30
58Call Dec 20189.008.00
55Call Dec 20190.007.50
200Call Dec 20192.006.20
3101Call Dec 20195.005.60 - 5.80
1188Call Dec 20200.005.00
2Call Dec 20210.004.00
7Call Mar 21191.009.30
200Call Mar 21205.005.03
75Call Mar 21208.004.44
100Call May 21208.004.20
260Call Dec 21200.006.08
300Put Sep 20170.000.30
201Put Sep 20180.001.20
600Put Sep 20181.001.93
460Put Sep 20182.002.24
300Put Sep 20183.002.57
20Put Sep 20185.003.36
50Put Sep 20186.003.83
600Put Sep 20188.004.84
200Put Sep 20190.006.01
50Put Dec 20170.000.86
300Put Dec 20180.003.29
75Put Mar 21166.000.86
200Put Mar 21179.003.63
200Put Mar 21190.008.63
100Put May 21166.001.00
260Put Dec 21180.006.18
Corn (€/t) : 861 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
400Call Aug 20180.000.40
1Call Nov 20173.003.50
120Call Nov 20180.001.26
120Put Nov 20155.000.75
50Put Nov 20162.002.90
50Put Nov 20164.003.50
120Put Nov 20165.003.92
Rapeseed (€/t) : 388 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
40Call Aug 20375.0010.27
1Call Aug 20380.005.60
40Call Aug 20390.001.50 - 1.60
1Call Nov 20365.0019.50
1Call Nov 20380.009.50
1Call Nov 20385.007.00
50Call Nov 20390.004.91
3Call Nov 20392.504.22
25Call Feb 21405.006.53
100Call Feb 21410.005.54
1Put Nov 20380.006.50
25Put Feb 21375.008.70
100Put Feb 21380.0011.18

Wheat (¢/b)
Jul 20526.2500+10.5000
Sep 20525.0000-3.2500
Dec 20530.0000-3.7500
Mar 21535.0000-4.0000
May 21539.0000-4.0000
Corn (¢/b)
Jul 20351.2500+0.2500
Sep 20348.7500-1.0000
Dec 20357.0000-1.2500
Mar 21366.7500-1.0000
May 21372.2500-1.7500
Soybean (¢/b)
Jul 20898.2500-1.2500
Aug 20896.5000-1.2500
Sep 20895.2500-1.2500
Nov 20901.5000-1.7500
Jan 21907.0000-3.0000
Soy meal ($/st)
Jul 20295.1000+3.7000
Aug 20297.3000+0.0000
Sep 20299.9000+0.1000
Oct 20301.8000+0.1000
Dec 20305.4000+0.4000
Soy oil (¢/lb)
Jul 2028.1900-0.2700
Aug 2028.2900-0.2100
Sep 2028.4500-0.2100
Oct 2028.6000-0.2100
Dec 2028.9200-0.2100

10/07/2020

Physical (€/t)
Durum wheat delivered La Pallice Spot - July 2020 basis295.00-5.00
Wheat delivered Rouen - July 2020 basis188.50+1.00
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2019 basis168.00+1.00
Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2019 basis167.00+1.00
Feed barley delivered Rouen - July 2020 basis167.00+0.50
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2020 basis178.00+0.00
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot - Flat - 2020 harvest386.00+1.00
Sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot - Flat - 2019 harvest345.00-3.00
Feed peas FOB Creil Spot - August 2020 basis215.00+0.00
Analysis 10/07/2020

European market

Wheat prices rose on yesterday amid deteriorating production estimates from many major wheat exporters.

The Euronext September 2020 expiry was dealing at € 189 per tonne yesterday, its highest level since May 29.

In France, echoes of soft wheat yields are extremely heterogeneous, but the quality looks correct. Yields are ranging from the worst to the best depending on the region. The south-western part of the country, which is already finishing the harvest, appears to be strongly hit. The work should progress more widely to the north of the Seine next week, this will provide a better clue about the national potential.

The other area in Europe where yields are in sharp decline is the region of Romania/Bulgaria. Yesterday, the Bulgarian Minister of Agriculture posted a wheat production estimate in a range of 4.5 and 4.9 Mt, down by -25% from last year.

It will therefore be interesting to see the European wheat production in tonight's USDA's monthly report. Last month the prediction was of 141 Mt.

The rapeseed remains supported by poor yields in France. The August 2020 delivery on Euronext returned yesterday to its highest levels since February 24th.

On palm oil, we can note the fall of the Malaysian stock to 1,9 Mt at the end of June according to the monthly report of the MPOB published this morning. This higher drop than expected is essentially linked to better exports than expected, up by nearly 25% over June.

American market

The market in Chicago remained firm yesterday before the release of the USDA's monthly WASDE report tonight at 6pm CET.

In this context, funds were net buyers in 15,000 lots of corn, 4,500 lots of soybeans and 7,000 lots of wheat.

The wheat in Chicago hit a two-month high supported by fears of a lower production among major exporters. Weekly U.S. export sales of 326,000 t were at the low end of expectations.

Soybean and corn are still supported by the weather market. Indeed, even if they are currently very volatile, the weather forecasts in the United States are predicting a rise in temperatures for the next couple of weeks. This is a matter of some concern for the corn as the flowering period is just beginning in the Corn Belt.

On the export side, weekly sales are rather good for the corn at 1,008 Mt, matching the top of range expectations. In soybeans, export sales for the old crop are satisfactory but disappointing for the new harvest.

Black Sea market

Black Sea traders will be following with interest the release of the USDA report this evening. For the straw cereals, the Ukrainians are expecting USDA to lower wheat and barley production. Russia’s production for these two crops should not be amended.

Ukrainian producers are also anticipating a downward revision of the rapeseed production that was last estimated at 4 Mt by USDA versus 2.8 Mt by Agritel. In this respect, during our crop tour in June, we did not observe the 1 to 5 acreage ratio between rapeseed and wheat in the southeastern regions, which usually contributes to 50% of the rapeseed acreage. Surprises in terms of harvested areas cannot be ruled out.

Live news

Harvest 2020 in France: very heterogeneous yields

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