European market

The markets were consolidating a little yesterday, after the sharp decline in recent weeks, supported in part by the weakness of the euro, displaying this morning at 1.1140 against the dollar.

Not surprisingly, the IGC has revised its forecast of global wheat production to 762 Mt from 735 Mt of last year, leading to an upward revision of its stock estimate for the end of 2019/2020 to 274 Mt against 264 Mt estimated for the end of the current campaign. In corn, world production 2019/2020 is estimated at 1.125 billion t against 1.118 of this year. The ending stocks for next year are estimated at 275 Mt, down from 311 Mt of this year. In soybean world production for next year is estimated at 361 Mt, close to the production of this year.

On the international scene, Tunisia has bought 92 000 t of milling wheat. Saudi Arabia has launched a call for tenders for the purchase of 600 000 t of wheat, for deliveries between July and September, for the new harvest.

Rapeseed prices were rebounding slightly in the wake of canola yesterday, while palm prices are still yielding ground, in a context of production higher than expected.

Crude oil prices remain firm at 64.9 $/barrel. The operators are expecting OPEC to increase production, to partly compensate for the decline in Iranian exports.

American market

The very slight rebound was registered yesterday on commodities in a general context that remains bearish.

Despite weather conditions that remain wet on the Corn Belt, operators still do not panic despite the accentuating delay in planting. Potential yield losses would only become significant after May 10th.

Weekly exports were in line with expectations, at 651,500 t in wheat, 782,900 t in corn and 619,000 t in soybeans.

The funds were net buyers yesterday for 12,500 lots of corn, 7,000 lots of soybean and 3,500 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, the country has exported 41.2 Mt of cereals since the beginning of the 2018/19 season, an increase of 24% compared to last year at the same period. This increase is mainly due to the volume of corn exported (23 Mt). Ukraine also exported 14.1 Mt of wheat and 3.3 Mt of barley.

In Kazakhstan, the Senate passed the law on the agreement to create a free trade zone between the Eurasian Economic Union and Iran. The countries have signed an agreement to reduce import duties for three years. Kazakhstan annually exports about 1.5 Mt of barley to Iran. The reduction in tariffs will affect other cereals, oilseeds, and beans exported from Kazakhstan. However, Kazakhstan could not reach an agreement with Iran on wheat exports. Overall, Kazakhstan exported 2.8 Mt of wheat in September-January 2018/19, 25% more than in the 2017/18 season at the same time (2.2 Mt) and 43% more than the five-year average (1.9 Mt).