Pre-opening 17/01/2020
Paris Chicago
Wheatunch to - 0.50€/t+2 cents
Cornunch to - 0.50€/t+2 cents
Rapeseedunch to -1€/t
Soybean-1 cent
Indexes 17/01/2020
€/$1.1108 $
Oil WTI58.54 $/b

Wheat (€/t)
Mar 20194.00+1.00
May 20192.75+1.25
Sep 20186.50+0.75
Dec 20188.75+0.50
Mar 21190.00+0.50
Corn (€/t)
Mar 20173.00+1.75
Jun 20177.25+2.00
Aug 20179.75+1.75
Nov 20175.25+1.25
Jan 21177.25+1.25
Rapeseed (€/t)
Feb 20407.50+3.25
May 20405.75+2.75
Aug 20387.00+2.25
Nov 20388.25+2.25
Feb 21389.50+2.50
Nitrogen solution (€/t)
Mar 20177.50+0.00
Jun 20177.50+0.00
Sep 20177.50+0.00
Nov 20177.50+0.00
Mar 21177.50+0.00

17/01/2020

Wheat (€/t) : 1322 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
4Call Mar 2017616.50
8Call Mar 2017716.00
20Call Mar 201905.35
75Call Mar 201943.20
6Call May 2017714.50
2Call May 201905.00
3Call May 201953.50
236Call Sep 201867.86
50Call Sep 201906.26
100Call Sep 202102.10
100Call Dec 202202.18
3Put Mar 201820.10
5Put Mar 201891.10
30Put Mar 201922.14
56Put Mar 201933.40
20Put May 201904.00
200Put Sep 201856.84
200Put Sep 201877.92
4Put Dec 201888.90
200Put May 211909.07
Corn (€/t) : 0 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
Rapeseed (€/t) : 2123 lots
LotsTypeStrikePrime
300Call May 2040010.91
50Call May 204058.52
470Call May 204105.00 - 5.90
290Call May 204202.90 - 3.40
250Call May 204302.46
30Call Aug 204102.70
50Call Nov 204104.00
80Call Nov 204202.50 - 2.80
300Put May 203901.71
300Put May 203954.20
3Put May 204007.00

Wheat (¢/b)
Mar 20570.5000+5.7500
May 20571.2500+5.7500
Jul 20570.5000+4.0000
Sep 20575.7500+4.0000
Dec 20583.7500+3.5000
Corn (¢/b)
Mar 20389.2500+14.0000
May 20395.2500+12.7500
Jul 20401.0000+11.7500
Sep 20400.2500+9.5000
Dec 20402.7500+8.2500
Soybean (¢/b)
Mar 20929.7500+5.2500
May 20943.0000+4.7500
Jul 20955.5000+5.0000
Aug 20959.2500+4.0000
Sep 20958.0000+4.0000
Soy meal ($/st)
Mar 20300.6000+0.0000
May 20305.2000+0.1000
Jul 20309.7000+0.0000
Aug 20311.4000+0.0000
Sep 20312.5000-0.2000
Soy oil (¢/lb)
Mar 2033.3500+0.2800
May 2033.6700+0.2500
Jul 2034.0200+0.2200
Aug 2034.1000+0.2400
Sep 2034.1600+0.2100

17/01/2020

Physical (€/t)
Durum wheat delivered Port la Nouvelle Spot - July 2019 basis245.00+0.00
Wheat delivered Rouen - July 2019 basis190.00-2.00
Corn delivered Bordeaux Spot - July 2019 basis169.00-1.00
Corn FOB Rhin Spot - July 2019 basis170.00-1.00
Feed barley delivered Rouen - July 2019 basis165.00+1.00
Malting barley FOB Creil Spot - July 2019 basis161.00-1.00
Rapessed FOB Moselle Spot - Flat - 2019 harvest404.00-5.00
Sunseed delivered St Nazaire Spot - Flat - 2019 harvest380.00+0.00
Feed peas FOB Creil Spot - August 2019 basis212.00-3.00
Analysis 17/01/2020

European market

Another day of decline was recorded for all products yesterday, after the disappointment on the deal signed between the USA and China and in the context of technical sales, mainly on oilseeds. Geopolitics is part of price formation, as well as the tensions that exist between India and Malaysia. These tensions are causing a drop in palm prices dragging in its wake the rapeseed. All these subjects will be discussed at the Paris Grain Day international conference on January 30 and 31.

Wheat is decreasing on Euronext, in a context of difficulties in ports, a consequence of strikes by dockworkers and lock keepers. The social movement seems to be losing some of its intensity, however, leading to a slight drop in port premiums since the start of the week.

On the international scene, we note the purchase by Japan of nearly 118,000 t of wheat from the USA, Canada, and Australia. Taiwan also purchased a little more than 99,000 t of US milling wheat.

As expected and explained at the beginning of the week, the impact of the establishment of an export quota for 20 Mt of cereals by Russia for the next 6 months had no effect on the markets. This volume is higher than the figures expected by our analysts, the impact is therefore neutral.

American market

The continued decline in prices was registered in Chicago yesterday, in a context of growing doubts about the effectiveness of the trade agreement signed with China. Indeed, despite the amounts posted for the imports of US agricultural products to China, the fact that the latter added in its comments that it will depend on market conditions, raises doubts.

The funds were particularly active in selling yesterday, mainly in corn. They were net sellers for 40,000 lots of corn, 7,500 lots of soybeans and 6,000 lots of wheat.

Export sales were above expectations for corn and wheat, at 784,700 t and 650,600 t, respectively. However, they were in line with expectations for soybeans, at 711,400 t.

Black Sea market

In the Black Sea area, climatic conditions have changed very little for more than a month. Average temperatures are still significantly above normal. During the day, the temperatures are expected to continue to be above zero for the next 2 weeks over most of the winter crops planted areas.

In the past 15 days, Russian wheat has received about 15-20 mm of precipitations, most often with snow. In Ukraine and Romania, rainfall has been absent since the start of the year, increasing the soil water deficit. Recall that the water deficit persists since mid-summer 2019, which was particularly dry. The reconstitution or not of these water reserves will be one of the essential elements on the market at the time of the vegetative development.

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